FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ON VENEZUELA AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001899

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2016
TAGS: PREL FR GT VE UNSC
SUBJECT: FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR ON VENEZUELA AND THE
UNSC

REF: A. STATE 37915


B. PARIS 1605

Classified By: DCM Karl Hofmann for reasons 1.4 (B & D).


1. (C) Ambassador Stapleton met March 23 with President
Chirac's diplomatic advisor, Maurice Gourdault-Montagne (MGM)
March 23 to press for French support for Guatemala's
candidacy for the Latin American UNSC seat opening in January
2007 (refs),emphasizing in particular the harm Venezuelan
membership would do to the Council itself. (Septel reports
on Gourdault-Montagne's comments on a range of Middle East
issues.)


2. (C) Gourdault-Montagne, noting that the UNGA would not
be voting on the matter until September at the earliest,
stated that the GOF had not yet taken a final decision.
However, there was "99 percent" certainty that France will
not support Venezuela. He recalled the "personal sympathy"
between Presidents Chirac and Chavez, which was based on
France's view that Chavez "was an expression of some trends
in the region." Significantly, he referred to that
relationship in the past tense, commenting that the
"Bolivarian Revolution" has taken Venezuela in unwelcome
directions, citing specifically its support for Iran at the
IAEA. "The man is unpredictable," added MGM, and while the
GOF does not view Venezuela as posing a real threat to the
U.S., it is cognizant of its attacks on "allies of France."
While France will obviously not vote for Venezuela, it will
want to exert its influence at the right time. Given its
relations with the region, it will want to be seen as having
consulted governments, in particular Brazil and Chile, where
Chirac will visit in late May, before publicly stating its
position.


3. (C) Comment: While MGM effectively ruled out France
supporting Venezuela, there was no commitment to campaign for
Guatemala. We do not rule out the possibility of positive
French engagement, which we will continue to press for, but
the GOF position will be significantly influenced by the
evolution of its disenchantment with Venezuela and its
analysis of Latin American dynamics vis a vis Caracas.



Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm

Stapleton