MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq - Third Anniversary of

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001750 SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq - Third Anniversary of War Iran PARIS - Monday, March 20, 2006 (A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: Iraq - Third Anniversary of War Iran B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: A few words echoing in today's headlines, "Crisis," "Ultimatum," "Tug of War" and finally the much-dreaded "General Strike" give the tone of today's lead story after Saturday's demonstrations aimed to force the government to "withdraw" its youth employment legislation (CPE). While President Chirac reiterates his support for his Prime Minister and his policy, commentators wonder whether "the unions have made too strong a demand from the government: withdraw the CPE or nothing." Political analysts review the legal aspects and note that constitutionally, the PM does not have the leeway to withdraw a law, which has already been voted. Hence the questions about Villepin's margin of maneuver and "what the demonstrators can reasonably expect." Sunday's Le Journal du Dimanche carries the latest popularity poll showing that Chirac gains 2 percentage points, up to 39%, while his PM Villepin loses 6, down to 37%. The lead international story is Iraq and the third anniversary of the beginning of the war. For Liberation "Iraq is plunging into a civil war, while President Bush tries to find an honorable way out." In his article, Pascal Riche wonders "whether Iraq will be Bush's downfall," while Le Monde carries an article about "impeachment making its way in Washington." For Le Figaro "it is a sad third anniversary. while in the U.S. support for President Bush is at its lowest." France Soir asks on its front page: "Three Years of War in Iraq, What For?" An op-ed in Le Journal du Dimanche is entitled "Honest Bush Has Turned Incompetent." In Les Echos, an op-ed entitled "Iraq, Iran and the Stubbornness of Events" is in fact a commentary on Washington's National Security Strategy. (See Part C) Saturday's Le Monde interviews U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalizad: "I do not believe civil war is inevitable, although I acknowledge security is an issue. We came here and we toppled Saddam's regime. Yes we are responsible for lots of what is happening. I am not ashamed to admit it. But if we leave now, chances of a war between religious communities will increase and spill over outside Iraq. What is at stake is the fate of the region." Today's second international story is the re-election of Belarus "dictator" Loukashenko, while on Saturday Le Figaro's editorial focused on Iran's "first step." (See Part C) (C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: Iraq - Third Anniversary of War "A `Phony' Civil War" Gerard Dupuy in left-of-center Liberation (03/20): "Three years later, a country that was supposed to be entering democracy, is tittering on the brink of civil war. Yet Iraqi leaders will not concede to this terminology. It is a fact that the words `civil war' are misleading. This `war' is led exclusively by the Sunni Arabs. The majority of Iraqis are still resisting getting into the fray. But this half war is a dirty war. with civilian deaths. We must criticize America's imperial power for having triggered this madness. But we must also acknowledge that Muslim Arabs are interminably murdering other Muslim Arabs. Under the guise of wanting to resist U.S. forces, it is the little people who are being slaughtered. The brutality of Zarkawi's followers gives an inkling of the type of regime that would follow if they ever prevailed. While nothing proves this will happen, nothing in the allied operations or the newborn government can predict an impeding end to this atrocious `phony' civil war." "Three Years Later, Bush a Prisoner of the Iraqi Quagmire" Philippe Gelie in right-of-center Le Figaro (03/20): "President Bush has two battles to deal with, one against terrorism and what appears to be an inexhaustible guerilla in Iraq, and the other his declining popularity in American public opinion polls. In this slow downward spiral Bush appears to have mastery only over one thing: his propaganda which is unchanged. The problem is that after the initial generalized docility of the American people with regard to Iraq, today they are no longer on board. According to the findings of the Pew Center, until recently the word most associated with the President was `honest' and today it is `incompetent.'" "Honest Bush Has Become Incompetent" Gilles Delafon in right-of-center Le Journal du Dimanche (03/19): "To understand President Bush's policy today, it is best to read the polls. The presidential boat is sinking, and it is best to salvage what can still be salvaged: the mid-term elections. The National Strategy policy and the `threat presented by Iran' are mere posturing. Great Britain and the international community would never follow strikes by Washington against Iran. And Tehran would make reprisals in Baghdad. Operation Swarmer is part of the same communications campaign. The truth is Bush is mired in Iraq, even if some democratic inroads have been made. And the irony to end all ironies is that it is Iran which is offering to help in Iraq. While it is imperative to stop Iran, this must be done through consensus, not provocation. And this is where we cannot help but observe that three years into the war in Iraq, Bush has learned absolutely nothing." "The Iraqi Fiasco" Thomas de Rochechouart in right-of-center France Soir (03/20): "Three years into the war, Washington's strategy is shaken. Instead of marching towards democracy, Iraq is marching towards civil war, to Washington's horror. Slowly the nature of the conflict in Iraq changed and has placed the American Army face to face with a civil war that could well put into question its strategy. And this climate where chaos is predominant is all the more worrisome that tension between Washington and Tehran is growing. Iran has kept Iraq's Shiite majority in check, which has helped Washington. Now Washington is threatening Iran over the nuclear crisis. But it is clear that the U.S. no longer has the means to engage in a new wide scale war." "Will Iraq Be Bush's Downfall?" Pascal Riche in left-of-center Liberation (03/20): "No one in Washington talks about re-enforcing the troops in Iraq if violence were to increase. Bush no longer has the means of implement his policy: he has no choice but to control the fallout. His popularity ratings are at their lowest with half of all Americans asking for a return of the troops, ASAP." "Iraq, Iran and the Stubbornness of Events" Right-of-center Les Echos in its editorial board commentary (03/20): "America's new realism is nothing more than an admission that unity in Iraq cannot exist and that Iran is threatening to spread its influence. A truth that good Old Europe's diplomats have known for a long time. Even if the White House remains an `idealist' when it comes to its objectives, it has nevertheless learned that democracy cannot easily be exported to countries which do not meet the basic necessary conditions. Among them the existence of a middle class, an adequate level of education, a basic consensus about living together and a healthy distinction between the State and religion. This is unfortunately how this utopian and bloody episode will end. The realists are sad to see to what extent events have proven them right." Iran "Iran's First Step" Pierre Rousselin in right-of-center Le Figaro (03/18): "The nuclear question will not be resolved without direct contact with the U.S. One must, therefore, be pleased that a primary obstacle has been lifted and that contacts are possible, even if they are limited to Iraq. The subject is sufficiently vast and sufficiently serious to not minimize the implications. Among the topics to take up: the formation of the Iraqi government and the refusal of the Kurds of Sunnis to support the Shiite Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, accused of wanting to forge a strategic alliance with Teheran. Another worry -- from Washington, this time -- is the support the Iranians are giving to radical Shiites and the explosives that they are apparently obtaining from the other side of the border. In a broader context, Iraq cannot truly be stabilized unless a regional equilibrium is re-established, guaranteeing neighboring countries against the threat of rising Shiite power in the Gulf. For that, it is necessary to speak to Iran. The announcement of first contact is only a first step. Each side must avoid the dialogue of the deaf and truly try and find common understanding. The Americans are right to remain prudent and skeptical." STAPLETON