DEBY BETTER OFF AFTER TRIPOLI. UN DROPPING THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001036 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 TAGS: PREL PHUM IV SU CD FR SUBJECT: DEBY BETTER OFF AFTER TRIPOLI. UN DROPPING THE BALL ON IVORY COAST ELECTIONS REF: PARIS 963 PARIS 00001036 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah B. Rosenblatt. Reasons 1.4b,d ¶1. (C) Summary: The French Presidency is relieved at the outcome of the Tripoli summit, which has significantly defused tensions between Sudan and Chad. Elysee Africa Cell Deputy Labriolle reported that Libya was pleased to have demonstrated its diplomatic credibility and had laid the groundwork for a larger role on the crisis, if required. Labriolle lavished praise for the summit outcome on the technical performance of Congo/Brazzaville FM Adada. He related that Libya, in conversations with Chirac's Africa Counselor Michel de Bonnecorse, had equated AMIS re-hatting with foreign occupation. MFA AF PDAS-Equivalent Barbier related AU Chairperson Konare appeared under heavy pressure from Sudan and OIC members to resist an expeditious transfer for AMIS to UN leadership. Separately, Labriolle suggested there were possibilities of a resolution to Chad's imbroglio with the World Bank. On Cote d'Ivoire he complained that the UN was failing to engage in support of elections. End Summary. Tripoli Summit: France Satisfied -------------- ¶2. (C) The French Presidency views the outcome of the Tripoli summit with satisfaction, Jacques de Labriolle, deputy to the Presidential Africa Counselor, told Africa Watcher on February 15. Although there was no concrete outcome, e.g. a border monitoring force, the summit served its purpose by helping to defuse tensions and avert open conflict between Sudanese President Bashir and Chadian President Deby. Labriolle underscored the significance of Bashir's and Deby's public commitment to desist from subversive actions, namely aiding and arming rebel groups. Even if Deby and Bashir do not observe the agreement to the letter, it has already caused discouragement among certain rebel elements. Deby's hold on power appeared more secure and he was gaining back the loyalty of wavering elements in his ruling clique. (Note: Labriolle intimated Deby's renewed distribution of emoluments was paying dividends.) There was a sense of relief at the Elysee and hope that the worst of the crisis was over. ¶3. (C) Asked if France anticipated that Libya would seek to expand on its mediation role, Labriolle noted that Tripoli had laid the groundwork though there were no immediate indications of follow-up. Libya would chair the three commissions established at the summit. Overall, the Libyan Government was delighted to have demonstrated it could play a "mature" role in international diplomacy. (Note: Labriolle personally evinced contempt for past Libyan terrorist actions, and commented that Qadhafi was now jaded and in some respects "broken", while not discounting his enduring potential for mischief.) ¶4. (C) Labriolle had high praise for Congo/Brazzaville FM Adada, "a superb technician." Burkina Faso President Compaore, with his strong connections throughout the Sahel, also exerted influence. Labriolle brushed aside CAR President Bozize's role as insignificant. AMIS Re-Hatting -------------- ¶5. (C) Labriolle reiterated that the French Presidency "absolutely" supports UN re-hatting of AMIS. He admitted that new French budgetary legislation left MFA colleagues in a bind on how to finance the French UN assessment for a new Darfur mission, but he did not believe the problem would prove insoluble (Reftel). ¶6. (C) Labriolle commented that Chirac's Africa Counselor Michel de Bonnecorse had just spoken with Al-Triki and sought to overcome the veteran Libyan diplomat's resistance. Al-Triki complained that a UN mission would be tantamount to PARIS 00001036 002.2 OF 003 foreign occupation; Bonnecorse rejoined that the UN mission would be primarily African in any case, since the bulk of AMIS forces would stay on. (Note: Al-Triki is traveling to France and to Slovakia for medical follow-up on a foot injury sustained at the 2005 Africa-France summit in Mali. Labriolle related with amusement that French FM Douste-Blazy, a medical doctor by training, had had to provide emergency treatment to the Libyan during the conference.) ¶7. (C) Obtaining an AU endorsement was critical, yet Labriolle said he had not been tracking discussion on accelerating AU consideration in advance of a March ministerial meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council. AU Chairperson Konare would be reluctant to cut corners, he observed; past efforts at finagling AU procedures had had painful consequences, for instance in AU debates on UN Security Council Reform. Labriolle commented that the French Government did not have a privileged relationship with Konare, whom he called a "man of the Left" with deeply conflicted sentiments toward France. By contrast, Chirac and Sassou-Nguessou were very friendly and were in touch frequently. (Note: In a February 17 conversation, MFA AF PDAS-Equivalent, taking issue with Labriolle's judgment, asserted Paris had very deep ties to Konare but Konare remained very much his own man in the sphere of political action. She believed Konare was under heavy pressure from Sudan and certain OIC nations to proceed deliberately on AMIS re-hatting.) Chad: Resolving the World Bank Imbroglio -------------- ¶8. (C) Labriolle revealed that Chad President Deby would be in Paris later in the week, apparently for medical reasons. The timing was unfortunate, since Chirac was away overseas in Thailand and India. Bonnecorse would be calling on Deby. (Note: Labriolle added that French authorities, on a previous visit, had lent Deby a state residence to facilitate discretion and comfort during a 15-day convalescence.) ¶9. (C) Labriolle was hopeful for a resolution of the impasse with the World Bank. The French Presidency was suggesting the World Bank and the IMF dispatch a joint evaluation mission to Chad. Its investigations presumably would determine that Chad was facing new hardships and that circumstances warranted alteration of the original protocol. Labriolle argued for inclusion of the IMF because Deby would refuse an evaluation mission solely under auspices of the World Bank. ¶10. (C) The World Bank imbroglio, if not resolved soon, could have far-ranging repercussions, Labriolle claimed. Chadian authorities were angered and inclined to force renegotiation of other agreements, for instance with Cameroon and with Exxon-Mobil. The Elysee thinks World Bank Chairman Wolfowitz understands the situation, but the bank's bureaucracy remains committed to the 1999 law as a watershed pilot program that the World Bank must maintain. France will continue to encourage dialogue. Labriolle added that the Chadians do not know how to deal with the World Bank. He commented that the Chadians were reacting very poorly to the lead role of Robin Cleveland, a competent and fair negotiator according to Labriolle, whose gender nonetheless is proving an impediment due to prejudices in the Chadian delegation. ¶11. (C) Labriolle said the Elysee was wrestling with the notion of having Deby postpone elections and extend his mandate for a finite period before stepping down definitively. Moreover, the power of Arab and African leaders derives from a perception of their durability, making Deby's assent problematic. Labriolle suggested a need for further discussion. Cote d'Ivoire: UN Must Engage on Elections -------------- ¶12. (C) Labriolle lambasted UN reluctance to engage on PARIS 00001036 003.2 OF 003 preparations for elections in Cote d'Ivoire. While Ivorian authorities should organize the elections proper, the UN must assume a supervisory role, implementing controls and exercising oversight. Resolution 1630 provides sufficient authority if allowed a proactive reading, he asserted. UN envoy for elections Antonio Monteiro appeared intimidated, he commented. Labriolle refused to entertain the possibility that the election calendar could slip. The timetable was in jeopardy, he admitted, and Gbagbo, who faces probable electoral defeat, would continue maneuvers to derail preparations. Nonetheless, any talk of delay would become a self-fulfilling prophecy, he feared. ¶13. (C) Labriolle reiterated French appeals for senior U.S. participation at meetings of the International Working Group in Abidjan. France will continue to participate at ministerial level, dispatching Minister for Cooperation and Development Brigitte Girardin. ¶14. (U) Tripoli minimize considered. Please visit Paris' Classified Website at: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm Stapleton