CANAL EXPANSION REFERENDUM: INDECISION GROWS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 001649 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA KIRSTEN MADISON; WHA/CEN; SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD; NSC FOR DAN FISK E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2016 TAGS: PGOV ECON EWWT ETRD PREL PM SUBJECT: CANAL EXPANSION REFERENDUM: INDECISION GROWS, "YES" LEAD SHRINKS REF: PANAMA 001411 Classified By: AMBASSADOR WILLIAM A. EATON FOR REASON 1.4D -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The undecided vote for the October 22 Panama Canal expansion referendum has grown about five points to 28.5 percent in the last two months at the expense of both the &yes8 and the &no8 votes, according to a recent Dichter and Neira poll. Embassy interlocutors cite lack of confidence in the government as the most common reason for this growing indecision. While most Embassy contacts agree the referendum will pass, the GOP hopes its proposed national dialogue on a national development plan will take political oxygen away from the "no" campaign and bolster support for the &yes8 vote. President Torrijos asked the UN Development Programme (UNDP) to moderate this national dialogue on August 16. Post will report SEPTEL on future developments of this dialogue. End summary. -------------- -------------- Panamanians Increasingly Uncertain About Expansion Plan -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) With two months to go before the October 22 Canal expansion referendum, the Dichter and Neira poll shows that more voters are undecided. This indecision comes at the expense of both &yes8 and &no8 votes. Some 54.4 percent of respondents favored the referendum, 17.1 percent opposed it, and 28.5 percent were undecided. (Note: Dichter and Neira's August 4-6 poll interviewed 1,200 respondents and has an estimated margin of error of 2.9 percent. End Note.) By contrast, Dichter and Neira's June poll revealed 57.9 percent in support, 19.8 percent against, and 22.3 percent undecided. -------------- The Opposition Organizes -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On August 7, the Electoral Tribunal (TE) announced the registration of seven groups that oppose expansion of the Canal; one additional group was registered in the following days. To date, only two groups supporting the Canal expansion have been recognized. The majority of the opposition groups appear to be nothing more than malcontents with a website. Two of the groups, however, have fairly large followings and the ability to mobilize voters. The National Front for the Defense of Economic and Social Rights (FRENADESO) and the Social Security Employees, Association (AECSS) ) central to the demonstrations last summer against Torrijos, social security reforms ) have once again taken up the banner of protest. A third opposition group formed last March, the Alternative Political Force (FPA),is a populist group, closely affiliated with Chavez,s Bolivarian movement. Former Social Security Fund Director General (CSS) and FRENADESO advisor Juan Jovane characterized this Bolivarian group as little more than a few university professors without any significant following, noting that the days of such &vanguard8 movements had long passed. Despite the GOP's and Panama Canal Authority's (ACP) public relations efforts, these groups have capitalized on distrust of the GOP and lack of progress on other issues to gain traction with voters. Labor groups, particularly those groups associated with FRENADESO, in the run up to the October 22 referendum see an opportunity to advance their labor demands. Jovane confirmed, &Now is not a bad time to negotiate.8 Indeed, several political observers have told Emboffs that the GOP intended to do whatever it took in the run up to the referendum to avoid problems. Dr. Carlos Abadia, the Vice President of a &yes8 group and a physician at the CSS, told PolChief that labor groups have been losing support and have needed to radicalize in order to mobilize people. ¶4. (SBU) Opposition leaders ) who themselves are largely supportive of Canal expansion efforts ) find themselves boxed in by their rank and file who call for voting "no" on the referendum. Newly-elected Panamenista leader Juan Carlos Varela told Ambassador that his party would not announce its position on the referendum until September 29 largely to provide political space for Torrijos to improve the &yes8 vote numbers. Panamenista legislator Jose Blandon, Jr. told the DCM that over 80 percent of his party's rank and file opposed the referendum, and that the party leadership would be forced to come out against it if things do not change soon. Publicly, Varela called on Torrijos to postpone the referendum. Union Patriotica leader Ricky Fabrega told PolChief that his party is afraid of being perceived as PRD-lite and that while the Canal expansion is a good idea in theory, he does not personally support the project under PRD administration. Celia Moreno, a Partido Popular leader told Polchief that the opposition parties did not want to derail the referendum, but rather would like to see it pass by a small margin in order to prove that they were a viable force. -------------- -------------- GOP Hopes National Dialogue May Jumpstart &Yes8 Vote -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Many Embassy interlocutors have complained about the Torrijos Administration's mismanagement of the &yes8 campaign. Abadia told Polchief that Panamanians need to have an emotional relationship to the project, and should feel like active participants. Others have characterized the ACP efforts to promote the &yes8 vote as arrogant, technocratic, and tone deaf. Indeed, the leader of "Yes, for Panama," Felipe Rodriguez, criticized Torrijos' "tight secrecy (hermetismo)" and the ACP's "cold" and "technocratic" manner for hindering efforts to promote the "yes" vote. Supporters and opponents alike criticize the Torrijos administration for making the Canal expansion a &political initiative8 rather than a &national project8 that benefits all Panamanians. Roberto Henriquez, Vice President of the Democratic Change Party explained to Polchief that there is a tendency in Panama to use &el voto castigo" to punish the ruling administration by voting against something without even considering the issue at hand. He says that the &no vote8 is an emotional response based on a lack of confidence in the capacity of the GOP to manage the project transparently, and that this could surface on referendum day. ¶6. (SBU) On 16 August, Torrijos formally asked the UN Development Programme (UNDP) to serve as a moderator for a national development plan. Whereas he had previously resisted calls to launch a national dialogue on a national development plan, faced with eroding poll numbers and a stagnant campaign, Torrijos appears to have accepted the necessity of dialogue. In his public call for a dialogue, Torrijos explained that the Canal expansion plan is a well-planned initiative that will improve living conditions for all Panamanians. The President urged Panamanians &with common will and a sense of the country to take advantage of this opportunity and take the leap into the first world.8 Despite his attempt to alleviate opposition concerns, initial remarks from opposition leaders revealed a skeptical wait and see attitude. FPA leader Beluche immediately called the effort "insincere" while the Patriotic Union Party is meeting this week to define its position with regard to the Canal. Panamanian political experts explained that there was general consensus across the political spectrum in favor of dialogues on national development in Panama. ¶7. (C) Dr. Abadia told PolChief, and other observers have noted, that the current situation with the Canal referendum echoes the way President Torrijos (mis)managed the social security reform last summer. He explained that FRENADESO really got started during the CSS reform process due to the GOP,s failure to dialogue and engage opponents. It took months of protests for the President to launch a national dialogue on the social security reforms, and a watered-down version of the legislation was implemented nearly six months later. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Most political spectators agree that the referendum will probably pass by a narrow margin. Roberto Henriquez says that historically 60-65 percent of Panamanians generally support the idea of expanding the Canal. This 65 percent is the ceiling that the GOP could expect to win on the referendum. Referenda in Panama have a storied history of failure; no referendum has been approved since the restoration of democracy. Panamanians go to the polls only every five years and they may take advantage of this unique interim opportunity to voice general disaproval of the Torrijos administration. ¶9. (C) The GOP now faces the challenge of staunching erosion of its &yes8 base, neutralizing growth of the &no8 vote by restoring a measure of confidence in its ability to govern, and growing the participant base through positive engagement. Transforming efforts to expand the Canal into a national project that is linked to a broader development agenda could help the GOP to reenergize support for the &yes8 vote. However, a poorly managed or token effort could undermine GOP credibility and weaken support for the expansion. EATON