CANADA SEEKS AFGHANISTAN SUCCESS AT RIGA, GOC WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 003264 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016 TAGS: MARR PREL CA SUBJECT: CANADA SEEKS AFGHANISTAN SUCCESS AT RIGA, GOC WITH US ON NATO ENLARGEMENT REF: STATE 176828 OTTAWA 00003264 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora. Resons: 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Canadian thinking on NATO enlargement tracks with U.S. policy. The GOC will seek consultations in Washington in early-to-mid November to discuss the broad range of topics on the Riga Summit agenda, including enlargement. Canada will continue to press its NATO allies to burden-share in southern Afghanistan, but the GOC will moderate its public rhetoric as part of an effort to ensure that the Summit is perceived at home as an Afghanistan success story. The minority Conservative Government's support for the NATO-ISAF mission, especially if the casualty rate remains high, could harm its re-election prospects. End summary. GOC: NATO's Door Should Be Open ¶2. (C) We delivered reftel demarche to Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) NATO Director Isabelle Poupart on October 26. Poupart responded that the GOC's thinking on NATO enlargement, including in the case of Croatia, tracked with our own. She said she expected the leaders at Riga to send a strong signal that NATO's door remained open, but cautioned that even with Croatia "out front" it would surprise her if the Summit Communique explicitly called for NATO membership for Croatia in 2008. PM to Press Belgians? ¶3. (C/NF) Poupart singled out France and Belgium as blocking progress on critical issues at NATO, including enlargement. She said that her office had sent forward a request that Prime Minister Harper press his Belgian counterpart to "as (NATO's) host lend greater support to the alliance," but were waiting and hoping for confirmation from the PM's office that he would do it. Pre-Riga Consultations ¶4. (C) Poupart said that DFAIT's NATO team would seek early or mid-November meetings with their counterparts in Washington to discuss the full range of Canadian and U.S. goals for the Riga Summit, to include the way ahead on enlargement. The Canadian Embassy in Washington would be asked to contact the relevant POCs at State after DFAIT NATO staff worked out internal scheduling issues. Afghanistan Success Story Needed ¶5. (C) Turning to Afghanistan, we mentioned Foreign Minister MacKay's October 19 statement to NATO ambassadors in Ottawa that their governments should authorize their forces in Afghanistan to operate in the south where a handful of allies were providing security. Canada would fulfill its military commitment to Afghanistan through February 2009, the FM said, but the GOC expected its allies to drop restrictive caveats and to burden-share by volunteering to participate along side Canadian forces in the difficult Kandahar region. ¶6. (C) Poupart emphasized that NATO, and Canada, needed an Afghanistan success story at Riga and that the GOC had decided to get "very vocal and public" to draw attention to the need for more European NATO allies to take on the hard missions in the South. The GOC was moderating its public rhetoric now that it had the attention of its NATO partners, she said, but it would continue to press the Europeans to drop restrictive caveats that blocked their participation in Qdrop restrictive caveats that blocked their participation in the high-intensity challenges Canadian and U.S. troops were facing near Kandahar. Canada was satisfied, she added, that its effort helped in part to convince The Netherlands, Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic to increase their contributions, and for Germany to at least commit to help more with enablers. Comment: Political Exposure ¶7. (C) The relatively high casualties Canada has suffered in Afghanistan, some 42 deaths to date, has highlighted disparities in burden-sharing among NATO allies. The OTTAWA 00003264 002.2 OF 002 Canadian Forces are eager to see NATO capacity in the region enhanced, including by member states dropping restrictive caveats that block critical re-deployments to high-intensity conflict areas such as the Kandahar region. ¶8. (C/NF) Meanwhile, Canada's Conservative Party Government will likely face an election in the spring. The Conservative's support for and expansion of Canada's role in Afghanistan is one of the few areas where PM Harper's minority government faces serious political exposure. Good news from Afghanistan, particularly on burden-sharing, would bolster the Conservative Government's prospects and its ability to counter the relentless opposition to Canada's involvement in Afghanistan from the opposition parties and many influential media outlets. Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa WILKINS