CANADA SEEKS AFGHANISTAN SUCCESS AT RIGA, GOC WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 003264

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2016
TAGS: MARR PREL CA
SUBJECT: CANADA SEEKS AFGHANISTAN SUCCESS AT RIGA, GOC WITH
US ON NATO ENLARGEMENT

REF: STATE 176828

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Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Brian Flora. Resons: 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary: Canadian thinking on NATO enlargement
tracks with U.S. policy. The GOC will seek consultations in
Washington in early-to-mid November to discuss the broad
range of topics on the Riga Summit agenda, including
enlargement. Canada will continue to press its NATO allies
to burden-share in southern Afghanistan, but the GOC will
moderate its public rhetoric as part of an effort to ensure
that the Summit is perceived at home as an Afghanistan
success story. The minority Conservative Government's
support for the NATO-ISAF mission, especially if the casualty
rate remains high, could harm its re-election prospects. End
summary.

GOC: NATO's Door Should Be Open


2. (C) We delivered reftel demarche to Department of Foreign
Affairs and International Trade (DFAIT) NATO Director
Isabelle Poupart on October 26. Poupart responded that the
GOC's thinking on NATO enlargement, including in the case of
Croatia, tracked with our own. She said she expected the
leaders at Riga to send a strong signal that NATO's door
remained open, but cautioned that even with Croatia "out
front" it would surprise her if the Summit Communique
explicitly called for NATO membership for Croatia in 2008.

PM to Press Belgians?


3. (C/NF) Poupart singled out France and Belgium as blocking
progress on critical issues at NATO, including enlargement.
She said that her office had sent forward a request that
Prime Minister Harper press his Belgian counterpart to "as
(NATO's) host lend greater support to the alliance," but were
waiting and hoping for confirmation from the PM's office that
he would do it.

Pre-Riga Consultations


4. (C) Poupart said that DFAIT's NATO team would seek early
or mid-November meetings with their counterparts in
Washington to discuss the full range of Canadian and U.S.
goals for the Riga Summit, to include the way ahead on
enlargement. The Canadian Embassy in Washington would be
asked to contact the relevant POCs at State after DFAIT NATO
staff worked out internal scheduling issues.

Afghanistan Success Story Needed


5. (C) Turning to Afghanistan, we mentioned Foreign Minister
MacKay's October 19 statement to NATO ambassadors in Ottawa
that their governments should authorize their forces in
Afghanistan to operate in the south where a handful of allies
were providing security. Canada would fulfill its military
commitment to Afghanistan through February 2009, the FM said,
but the GOC expected its allies to drop restrictive caveats
and to burden-share by volunteering to participate along side
Canadian forces in the difficult Kandahar region.


6. (C) Poupart emphasized that NATO, and Canada, needed an
Afghanistan success story at Riga and that the GOC had
decided to get "very vocal and public" to draw attention to
the need for more European NATO allies to take on the hard
missions in the South. The GOC was moderating its public
rhetoric now that it had the attention of its NATO partners,
she said, but it would continue to press the Europeans to
drop restrictive caveats that blocked their participation in
Qdrop restrictive caveats that blocked their participation in
the high-intensity challenges Canadian and U.S. troops were
facing near Kandahar. Canada was satisfied, she added, that
its effort helped in part to convince The Netherlands,
Poland, Romania and the Czech Republic to increase their
contributions, and for Germany to at least commit to help
more with enablers.

Comment: Political Exposure


7. (C) The relatively high casualties Canada has suffered
in Afghanistan, some 42 deaths to date, has highlighted
disparities in burden-sharing among NATO allies. The

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Canadian Forces are eager to see NATO capacity in the region
enhanced, including by member states dropping restrictive
caveats that block critical re-deployments to high-intensity
conflict areas such as the Kandahar region.


8. (C/NF) Meanwhile, Canada's Conservative Party Government
will likely face an election in the spring. The
Conservative's support for and expansion of Canada's role in
Afghanistan is one of the few areas where PM Harper's
minority government faces serious political exposure. Good
news from Afghanistan, particularly on burden-sharing, would
bolster the Conservative Government's prospects and its
ability to counter the relentless opposition to Canada's
involvement in Afghanistan from the opposition parties and
many influential media outlets.

Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa

WILKINS