CANADA'S NEW GOVERNMENT: OPPORTUNITIES AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000194 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS FOR THE SECRETARY FROM AMBASSADOR WILKINS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL CA SUBJECT: CANADA'S NEW GOVERNMENT: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID WILKINS, REASONS 1.4 (B) (D) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary: Unless the polls are badly mistaken, Canada's Conservatives will win today's election and Stephen Harper will be asked by the Governor General to form a minority government. The election of a new government, after thirteen years of Liberal rule, presents opportunities for advancing U.S. interests in such areas as law enforcement and continental security, and in developing Canada as a more useful partner in the Hemisphere and around the globe. However, managing the bilateral relationship with an inexperienced, inherently weak minority government also poses challenges and calls for some soft treading. End Summary ¶2. (C/NF) Assuming that the polls are right and he falls short of a Parliamentary majority, Harper will know that the Conservative hold on power will be tenuous. The Tory seat total will allow them to form government, but the combined forces of the opposition (Liberal, Bloc Quebecois and NDP) could cause the Conservatives to fall at virtually any time. The Conservatives also have no natural allies among the three opposition parties, so Harper's government will have to take things one issue, and one week, at a time. Significantly, the socially liberal core values of the opposition are more in line with most Canadians than the minority Conservatives, weakening their mandate even further. Working in the Conservative's favor, however, and giving them a bit of operating space, is the fact that the Liberals will need to switch leaders, and the Bloc may have hit its high-water mark, so no one will want to see an election too soon. But fairly early in 2007 the Conservatives know that the political sharks will start to circle in earnest. The last Tory minority government lasted eight months, and we could easily see another election within a year. ¶3. (C/NF) Given a relatively weak mandate and tenuous hold on power, Harper will move deliberately but cautiously to get a few successes under his belt before doing anything even remotely bold. His first initiatives will likely deal with the core issues he was elected to improve -- corruption and accountability -- for which he can gain widespread Parliamentary and popular support. This will allow him to test the waters in Parliament and get his team organized before moving on to areas that may spark controversy. ¶4. (C/NF) Relations with the U.S. will be tricky for Harper, who along with many members of his caucus has an ideological and cultural affinity for America. But as he has done already with many of his core social and fiscal values, he will simply have to sideline this affinity in order to not be painted as "selling out to the Americans" to a skeptical Canadian public. I know Harper will be warm and cordial in his dealings with the U.S., but he also has to demonstrate that he has the ability to advance Canada's interests with Washington, and he may feel compelled to step back from gestures that could be construed as a close embrace. I would also note that, unlike Martin, Harper has very little foreign experience; he will tend to focus, at least initially, on bilateral issues closer to home such as softwood lumber and the border. ¶5. (C/NF) That said, I see a real opportunity for us to advance our agenda with the new government. I recommend Qadvance our agenda with the new government. I recommend early on that we look for an opportunity to give Harper a bilateral success story by resolving an irritant such as the Devil's Lake filter system or entering into good faith negotiations to reach a solution on softwood lumber. Press reports here indicate a growing willingness across Canada to get back to the table. Early success on a bilateral issue will bolster Harper and allow him to take a more pro-American position publicly without as much political risk. ¶6. (C/NF) Another area where the new government will seek engagement will undoubtedly be border security. Finding a few high-profile SPP-type deliverables to improve cross border movement of goods and services would help our image here as well as shore up Harper's credentials. Laying this groundwork would then open the way for progress on cross-border law enforcement initiatives of interest to us, such as enhanced information-sharing, joint maritime operations, and more robust counter-narcotics efforts. ¶7. (C/NF) On other issues, Harper is committed to increasing spending on the armed forces and will do so, making the Canadian Armed Forces a more capable and deployable force; we have little to contribute to this debate and should stay out OTTAWA 00000194 002 OF 002 of it. He has also suggested that the missile defense decision could be re-examined, but I strongly recommend letting him define to us what this means and only then respond to it. With regards to our transformational agenda, there will be numerous opportunities for engagement. However, I suggest quietly working such cooperation with the new government through official, non-public channels, and that we focus on a handful of priority areas -- keeping Canada in the game in Afghanistan as the mission turns more difficult and possibly more bloody; continuing to work together to keep the pressure on Iran; increasing support to the new government in Haiti, possibly even taking on more of a leadership role there; following through with good governance and economic assistance to the new Iraqi government; working closely with us and other partners on Sudan; and engaging more actively in other hemispheric trouble spots such as Venezuela, Colombia, and Cuba. We're going to be recommending senior level visits and consultations on foreign policy issues to help bring Harper and his new, generally inexperienced team into the fold as more useful partners. ¶8. (C/NF) In short, I see both opportunities and challenges in the coming year in this bilateral relationship, and I look forward to helping connect the dots with the new government so we can effectively advance our agenda. Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa WILKINS =======================CABLE ENDS============================