(S/NOFORN) NORWAY MAY CONSIDER ISAF SOF DEPLOYMENT

S E C R E T OSLO 000756 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2026 TAGS: MARR MOPS NATO PREL PGOV AF NO SUBJECT: (S/NOFORN) NORWAY MAY CONSIDER ISAF SOF DEPLOYMENT Classified By: P/E Counselor Mike Hammer, reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NOFORN) We met on June 9 with MOD DAS for Security Policy Henning Vaglum (protect throughout) and MOD Policy Afghan Desk Officer Keith Eikenes (protect throughout). Vaglum told us that Norway had been approached in March by DSACEUR on whether it could provide SOF to an expanded ISAF mission in Afghanistan, under SOF forces to be stood up this fall under British leadership. The Norwegians responded that their SOF was committed during this time frame to the NRF. Vaglum said that there had been no further formal exchanges on this issue, but that MOD planners had begun to look at the feasibility of a fall 2006 SOF deployment to Afghanistan in support of an expanded ISAF mission, admitting that this might affect Norway's ability to fulfill its NRF rotation. ¶2. (S/NOFORN) Vaglum and Eikenes (STRICTLY protect) said that the idea of a SOF deployment was supported by Minister of Defense Anne-Grete Stroem Erichsen, but that it was not clear when and if she would take this to her cabinet colleagues for a decision. Vaglum said that any indications that this will be presented to the Cabinet next week were premature. "We're still at the planning stage," Vaglum said, noting that Stroem Erichsen realizes that selling this decision to the full cabinet will be difficult. Vaglum indicated that Stroem Erichsen, while on board, is now in the process of doing the necessary behind-the-scenes leg-work to be able to bring this to the Cabinet for a decision, and she may not have her ducks in row in the immediate coming weeks. Also, if after she does the rounds she believes that she can't win Cabinet support for a Norwegian SOF deployment to ISAF, she might decide not to push the issue at all. With this uncertainty, Vaglum could not give a timeline for when or if the Norwegian government would move ahead with a decision on an ISAF SOF deployment. "Don't let Washington's expectations be raised," Vaglum cautioned, since the decision could go fast, slow, or not at all. ¶3. (S/NOFORN) Comment. According to the MOD, one duck Stroem Erichsen has lined up already is Foreign Minister Jonas Stoere. However, the real challenge to the combined weight of Stroem Erichsen and Stoere will come from the junior coalition partner, the peacenik/Afghan skeptics in the Socialist Left (SV) party. The Afghanistan deployments that Norway currently has are bitter pills for SV to swallow, and supporting ISAF with SOF may be a bridge too far for SV. One of Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg's main objectives has been to keep his government coalition together. If SV can not be bullied into agreeing to a SOF deployment to ISAF, Stoltenberg will not let his coalition unravel in order to support his defense and foreign minister's plans to go forward with this deployment. In a separate meeting with PM National Security Adviser Havnen, we heard essentially the same message: Stoltenberg is determined to keep his majority coalition together and will weigh the political cost before agreeing to a SOF deployment. ¶4. (S/NOFORN) Comment continued. If Stroem Erichsen moves forward and brings the idea of an ISAF SOF deployment to the Cabinet, this will be a bold move for her (and one that shows that she is following the policy advice from her own ministry). The decision to send SOF to Afghanistan to support ISAF will be one of the most difficult foreign policy decisions that the Stoltenberg government will have taken to date. We believe that it is unlikely that Foreign Minister Stoere will be in a position to say much about this when he visits Washington next week. If it is important to us that Norway take on a more robust role in Afghanistan (at a short term cost of their NRF contribution),Stoere should hear that. However, we should tread carefully so as not to injure our allies in the Norwegian MOD and MFA who want to make this happen. If our advocacy for a Norwegian SOF deployment to ISAF becomes public knowledge, we can guarantee that it will not happen. This needs to be seen as a Norwegian initiative. Visit Oslo's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/oslo/index.cf m WEBSTER