SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO, MAY 16-17

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000615

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR UNDER SECRETARY JOSETTE SHINER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PREL OVIP EAID ENRG NO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO, MAY 16-17


Classified By: Ambassador Benson K. Whitney, Reasson 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) I very much look forward to welcoming you to Oslo.
You will be the most senior U.S. administration official to
visit Norway since the center-left government of Jens
Stoltenberg came to power in October 2005, and your visit
should help us in our efforts to bolster our dialogue with
Norway on the issues that are of high mutual interest, like
the High-level Panel on UN System-wide Coherence, and energy
issues.


2. (C) The timing of your visit could not be better, coming
at a juncture where an activist left-leaning government is
striking out in different directions internationally. Sadly,
while paying lip service to the importance of U.S.-Norwegian
bilateral relations, Stoltenberg's government has clearly
wanted to be seen as keeping some distance from the U.S. It
has been a wild last few months, with new and surprising
announcements -- from floating the idea of a security
dialogue with Iran, to Norwegian officials agreeing to meet
with Hamas representatives -- coming fast upon the heels of
each other.


3. (C) One of the two junior government coalition partners,
the Socialist Left party (SV),is irresponsible (to say the
least) on foreign and security issues. Stoltenberg and his
Labor party colleague Foreign Minister Jonas Stoere have sat
down hard on SV when necessary, for example, when Finance
Minister Kristin Halvorsen expressed her support for a
consumer boycott of Israeli goods. However, even though SV
has been forced to clam up somewhat on foreign and security
issues, the Stoltenberg government sometimes appears more
concerned with appeasing its domestic left wing constituency
than in maintaining consistency in Norway's foreign policy,
which has historically been anchored in a strong relationship
with the U.S.


4. (C) Our concerns about the drift of Norwegian foreign
policy is also echoed by the center-right of Norwegian
politics, and even within the Labor party and Center party
(the more responsible junior government coalition party)
there are many who argue that not enough is being done to
preserve the bilateral link with the U.S. This background
adds a huge element of importance to your visit, offering us
the opportunity to demonstrate that on issues that are
important to Norway, like the UN and energy, the U.S. and
Norway have a strong and healthy dialogue and partnership.
One of our main aims is to demonstrate that when Norway and
the U.S. work together, the results are good, for us, for
them, and the world.


5. (C) Where we do work together, for example Sudan, Sri
Lanka, Afghanistan, the relationship is close, strong and
productive. Norway does a lot of good things around the
globe. Despite its small size (approximately 4.5 million
inhabitants, and 21,750 defense establishment - including
civilians),Norway has been a meaningful partner in
international operations to fight terrorism and secure peace.
It presently has 450 troops and three F-16s in Afghanistan
and stands ready to increase its military and civilian
contributions to Sudan. That said, Stoltenberg's first
foreign policy decision was to pull Norway's token presence
out of Iraq, including the NATO Training Mission. Norway is
usually in line with us in NATO deliberations. Even the
traditionally anti-NATO Socialist Left party has had to
accept as the price for government membership that Norway
will support NATO and NATO missions. The new Norwegian
government also wants to increase the number of troops it has
supporting UN peace keeping operations.


7. (C) Norway contributes significant resources to
humanitarian assistance and development aid. In 2004
(completes statistics for 2005 are not yet published)
Norway's total foreign aid budget was USD 2.2 billion (14.8
billion NOK). Norway has also made Afghanistan a long-term
assistance partner and contributed in 2004 approximately USD
43 million to Afghan development.

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Whom you will meet
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6. (C) Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg at 47 years old likes
to portray himself as a youthful and energetic leader,
modeled on British Labour PM Blair. This is his second stint
as Prime Minister. His first short term ended in a
disastrous defeat for the Labor party in 2001, when Labor had
its worst electoral results since the early part of the 20th
century. In coming to office again, he was committed not to
suffer the consequences of running a minority government for
a second time and fought to build a three party coalition
with the far left Socialist Left (SV) and agrarian Center
party (Sp). Preserving the unity of this coalition has been
his bottom line, forcing the Labor party into the new
situation of having to compromise on policy stances.


7. (C) Stoltenberg is less interested in foreign policy than
domestic politics, except for a few issues where he is
passionately engaged. One of his main priorities has been to
focus on international health issues, especially on
anti-malarial efforts. He also takes his role as co-Chair of
the UN Panel seriously, and you will find him committed to
working with us on these issues. However, like all
Norwegians, Stoltenberg approaches the UN with positive bias.
Norwegians are taught from birth that the UN and the UN
system are inherently good. There is no domestic debate
about the UN's problems, as if even to suggest they exist
would be heresy. Norwegians are idealists and are true
believers in the UN.


8. (C) Morten Wetland is the workhorse of the Prime
Minister's office, with long experience in the job. A lawyer
by training and a career Norwegian diplomat, he first started
as a State Secretary in the PM's office in 1994, and has
worked there for a combined total of 10 years. He also
served as Norway's ambassador to Berlin for five years.
Knowledgeable, professional, and personable, he will serve
ably as Stoltenberg's Sherpa for the UN Panel. The only
problem is that the PM relies on him for so many other
things, that his time is tight. We have been told that to
ease Wetland's burden, he and Deputy Foreign Minister Raymond
Johansen will share the UN Panel meetings between them.


9. (C) Johansen's background differs slightly. A plumber by
training, he started out his political career on the far left
of Norwegian politics, representing the Socialist Left party
on the Oslo city government for two years. He has now moved
closer to the political center and has been a member of the
Labor party for well over a decade, but his foreign policy
impulses often reflect his left-leaning biases. He also has
a strong personal identification with development issues,
having served for NORAD (Norway's overseas development aid
agency) in the 1990s, Deputy Minister at the Foreign Ministry
during the first Stoltenberg government (2000-2001),charge
d'affaires at the Norwegian Embassy in Asmara, Eritrea
2001-2002, and Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee
Council 2002-2005. When he comes to the UN Panel, these past
experiences and interest will color his approach. He's going
to be far more interested in ensuring the UN carries forward
its humanitarian roles, than in promoting UN financial rigor.


10. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Liv Monica Stubholt is cut
from different cloth. A high-powered lawyer from one of
Norway's leading firms, even her staff sometimes wonder why
she is member of the agrarian Center party, which is better
known popularly for the hard drinking, anti-EU farmers of
mid-Norway, than with Oslo lawyers possessed of sharp
intellects and hard driving energy. You will find her well
briefed and professional. Stubholt is the MFA's point person
on energy, trade, and agricultural issues. Norway needs to
hear our message on trade issues, the Doha Round and
agriculture; Norway is anxious to see Doha move forward, but
also has one of the world's highest levels of agricultural
protection for its farmers.


11. (C) I am delighted that you will be able to join me for
an energy-oriented dinner at my residence. We will have the
who's who on Norwegian's energy community on hand. Norway is
the third largest exporter of oil and gas in the world.
Hearing from you how we are approaching the G-8 energy
security summit will be of great interest to them. Having
the opportunity to discuss energy issues with you, will give
our Norwegian friends a clear sense that we want to have a
productive and sustained energy dialogue and partnership with
them.

Visit Oslo's Classified website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/oslo/index.cf m

WHITNEY