SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO, MAY 16-17

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSLO 000615 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR UNDER SECRETARY JOSETTE SHINER E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016 TAGS: PREL OVIP EAID ENRG NO SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO, MAY 16-17 Classified By: Ambassador Benson K. Whitney, Reasson 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) I very much look forward to welcoming you to Oslo. You will be the most senior U.S. administration official to visit Norway since the center-left government of Jens Stoltenberg came to power in October 2005, and your visit should help us in our efforts to bolster our dialogue with Norway on the issues that are of high mutual interest, like the High-level Panel on UN System-wide Coherence, and energy issues. ¶2. (C) The timing of your visit could not be better, coming at a juncture where an activist left-leaning government is striking out in different directions internationally. Sadly, while paying lip service to the importance of U.S.-Norwegian bilateral relations, Stoltenberg's government has clearly wanted to be seen as keeping some distance from the U.S. It has been a wild last few months, with new and surprising announcements -- from floating the idea of a security dialogue with Iran, to Norwegian officials agreeing to meet with Hamas representatives -- coming fast upon the heels of each other. ¶3. (C) One of the two junior government coalition partners, the Socialist Left party (SV),is irresponsible (to say the least) on foreign and security issues. Stoltenberg and his Labor party colleague Foreign Minister Jonas Stoere have sat down hard on SV when necessary, for example, when Finance Minister Kristin Halvorsen expressed her support for a consumer boycott of Israeli goods. However, even though SV has been forced to clam up somewhat on foreign and security issues, the Stoltenberg government sometimes appears more concerned with appeasing its domestic left wing constituency than in maintaining consistency in Norway's foreign policy, which has historically been anchored in a strong relationship with the U.S. ¶4. (C) Our concerns about the drift of Norwegian foreign policy is also echoed by the center-right of Norwegian politics, and even within the Labor party and Center party (the more responsible junior government coalition party) there are many who argue that not enough is being done to preserve the bilateral link with the U.S. This background adds a huge element of importance to your visit, offering us the opportunity to demonstrate that on issues that are important to Norway, like the UN and energy, the U.S. and Norway have a strong and healthy dialogue and partnership. One of our main aims is to demonstrate that when Norway and the U.S. work together, the results are good, for us, for them, and the world. ¶5. (C) Where we do work together, for example Sudan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, the relationship is close, strong and productive. Norway does a lot of good things around the globe. Despite its small size (approximately 4.5 million inhabitants, and 21,750 defense establishment - including civilians),Norway has been a meaningful partner in international operations to fight terrorism and secure peace. It presently has 450 troops and three F-16s in Afghanistan and stands ready to increase its military and civilian contributions to Sudan. That said, Stoltenberg's first foreign policy decision was to pull Norway's token presence out of Iraq, including the NATO Training Mission. Norway is usually in line with us in NATO deliberations. Even the traditionally anti-NATO Socialist Left party has had to accept as the price for government membership that Norway will support NATO and NATO missions. The new Norwegian government also wants to increase the number of troops it has supporting UN peace keeping operations. ¶7. (C) Norway contributes significant resources to humanitarian assistance and development aid. In 2004 (completes statistics for 2005 are not yet published) Norway's total foreign aid budget was USD 2.2 billion (14.8 billion NOK). Norway has also made Afghanistan a long-term assistance partner and contributed in 2004 approximately USD 43 million to Afghan development. -------------- Whom you will meet -------------- ¶6. (C) Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg at 47 years old likes to portray himself as a youthful and energetic leader, modeled on British Labour PM Blair. This is his second stint as Prime Minister. His first short term ended in a disastrous defeat for the Labor party in 2001, when Labor had its worst electoral results since the early part of the 20th century. In coming to office again, he was committed not to suffer the consequences of running a minority government for a second time and fought to build a three party coalition with the far left Socialist Left (SV) and agrarian Center party (Sp). Preserving the unity of this coalition has been his bottom line, forcing the Labor party into the new situation of having to compromise on policy stances. ¶7. (C) Stoltenberg is less interested in foreign policy than domestic politics, except for a few issues where he is passionately engaged. One of his main priorities has been to focus on international health issues, especially on anti-malarial efforts. He also takes his role as co-Chair of the UN Panel seriously, and you will find him committed to working with us on these issues. However, like all Norwegians, Stoltenberg approaches the UN with positive bias. Norwegians are taught from birth that the UN and the UN system are inherently good. There is no domestic debate about the UN's problems, as if even to suggest they exist would be heresy. Norwegians are idealists and are true believers in the UN. ¶8. (C) Morten Wetland is the workhorse of the Prime Minister's office, with long experience in the job. A lawyer by training and a career Norwegian diplomat, he first started as a State Secretary in the PM's office in 1994, and has worked there for a combined total of 10 years. He also served as Norway's ambassador to Berlin for five years. Knowledgeable, professional, and personable, he will serve ably as Stoltenberg's Sherpa for the UN Panel. The only problem is that the PM relies on him for so many other things, that his time is tight. We have been told that to ease Wetland's burden, he and Deputy Foreign Minister Raymond Johansen will share the UN Panel meetings between them. ¶9. (C) Johansen's background differs slightly. A plumber by training, he started out his political career on the far left of Norwegian politics, representing the Socialist Left party on the Oslo city government for two years. He has now moved closer to the political center and has been a member of the Labor party for well over a decade, but his foreign policy impulses often reflect his left-leaning biases. He also has a strong personal identification with development issues, having served for NORAD (Norway's overseas development aid agency) in the 1990s, Deputy Minister at the Foreign Ministry during the first Stoltenberg government (2000-2001),charge d'affaires at the Norwegian Embassy in Asmara, Eritrea 2001-2002, and Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council 2002-2005. When he comes to the UN Panel, these past experiences and interest will color his approach. He's going to be far more interested in ensuring the UN carries forward its humanitarian roles, than in promoting UN financial rigor. ¶10. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Liv Monica Stubholt is cut from different cloth. A high-powered lawyer from one of Norway's leading firms, even her staff sometimes wonder why she is member of the agrarian Center party, which is better known popularly for the hard drinking, anti-EU farmers of mid-Norway, than with Oslo lawyers possessed of sharp intellects and hard driving energy. You will find her well briefed and professional. Stubholt is the MFA's point person on energy, trade, and agricultural issues. Norway needs to hear our message on trade issues, the Doha Round and agriculture; Norway is anxious to see Doha move forward, but also has one of the world's highest levels of agricultural protection for its farmers. ¶11. (C) I am delighted that you will be able to join me for an energy-oriented dinner at my residence. We will have the who's who on Norwegian's energy community on hand. Norway is the third largest exporter of oil and gas in the world. Hearing from you how we are approaching the G-8 energy security summit will be of great interest to them. Having the opportunity to discuss energy issues with you, will give our Norwegian friends a clear sense that we want to have a productive and sustained energy dialogue and partnership with them. Visit Oslo's Classified website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/oslo/index.cf m WHITNEY