TESTING ABE: LOOKING LIKE LDP WIN IN OSAKA 9TH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000607 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV JA SUBJECT: TESTING ABE: LOOKING LIKE LDP WIN IN OSAKA 9TH DISTRICT BY-ELECTION REF: 1) Osaka Kobe 00576 ¶1. (SBU) The LDP/Komeito coalition candidate, Kenji Harada, has surged ahead of his DPJ opponent Nobumori Otani and will likely win the Osaka 9th District Lower House by-election on October 22 (see reftel for why this election matters),based on discussions with politicians and political parties, the Soka Gakkai (SG) Buddhist lay organization, business leaders and the media, polling data and personal observations of various political rallies and campaign events. Local interlocutors say that a win by the coalition will help cement the LDP's electoral chances next year and deal yet another setback to the ailing DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa in a district that was once an opposition stronghold. Here is a look at why post is calling the election for Harada. -------------- THE KOMEITO/SOKA GAKKAI MACHINE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Candidate Harada is indebted to the New Komeito Party and Soka Gakkai for delivering the votes he needs for a win. SG has mobilized thousands of young volunteers for weeks in the district, vocally participating in Harada rallies en masse and calling up family, friends, and friends of friends to try to increase the network effects of the Komeito/SG voting machine. SG is the most ideological, disciplined and activist political group in Osaka and can be relied upon to deliver reliable voters to the polls. SG openly declared to poloff that without the SG/Komeito, the LDP in Osaka would be declining, not gaining, electorally. Citing Japanese electoral terminology, he said that Abe provided the "wind" (the election mood, or buzz) but Komeito was the "geta," (Japanese high- heeled wooden sandals) which 1) "boosted" the height of the candidate and 2) hustled eager voters to the polls to vote in the right direction. This is an apt metaphor for the coalition's modus vivendi in the Osaka election. -------------- LDP STAR POWER -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Given Abe's high initial support rate--the third highest of any Japanese Cabinet at its start, his immediate improvement of ties with Beijing and Seoul, and his ability to "get tough" on Pyongyang following the DPRK nuclear test, Harada's campaign has soared on Abe's coattails. Abe and Komeito President Akihiro Ota campaigned together in Ibaraki City on Sunday, and more LDP starpower was unleashed when former PM Junichiro Koizumi gave a speech the following day. ¶4. (SBU) We attended Koizumi's speech, which was standing room only in a community center holding more than 1,200 LDP faithful. In reportedly his first speech since he ended his premiership, Koizumi again demonstrated his mastery of political rhetoric and the ability to captivate an audience, using self- depreciating humor and personal reflections of his 5 years leading the coalition to draw in his listeners. He then delivered the most concise and digestible reasons to vote for the LDP: 1) that Abe was doing very well as Prime Minister; 2) that there was no such thing as reform fatigue--without reform, there would be no growth, and if voters want growth, they needed to support reform; and 3) it would be reckless to turn over the reigns of power to the DPJ now with the North Korean situation so dangerous and the need for further reforms so great. He asked the audience if they wanted to go back to the 90s, when there was one American president and 7 Japanese prime ministers over the same period. In arguing for ruling party continuity, he reminded them that the DPJ leadership has changed at least four times in as many years. OSAKA KOBE 00000607 002 OF 002 ¶5. (U) Harada and his supporters have been emphasizing the need for educational reform (assigning responsibility for school performance problems and high profile on-campus crimes to lax teachers and a flaccid Nikkyoso teachers' union, both strong DPJ supporters), and returning to an age when families were strong, kids were disciplined, and Japanese were patriotic. -------------- DPJ: NO TRACTION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Unfortunately for DPJ President Ichiro Ozawa, his appearance in the district coincided with the DPRK announcement of its nuclear test, which of course proceded to dominate the day's news cycle. In addition to lacking political buzz, Ozawa also appeared tired and restrained, reminding observers of his well- publicized health issues in late September. Although the DPJ leadership has been visiting Osaka, they don't appear to have captured the imagination of voters. Otani has been campaigning tirelessly but has not dispelled the impression that this is now an extremely tight race that he no longer dominates. ¶7. (U) Otani, in what appears to be a test of next year's DPJ campaign issues, continues to stress pocketbook issues like pension reform, healthcare, and the growing inequalities in the economy and society, blaming them on Koizumi and Takenaka's reforms. RUSSEL