LIANCOURT SURVEY: ANOTHER FLASHPOINT IN THE JAPAN SEA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 OSAKA KOBE 000351 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EWWT PBST PHSA PREL KS JA SUBJECT: LIANCOURT SURVEY: ANOTHER FLASHPOINT IN THE JAPAN SEA ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Observers in western Japan are making an unfortunate public linkage between the ROKG maritime survey in the disputed EEZ of the Liancourt Rocks and the DPRK's missile launches of July 5, local time. Whether or not the DPRK deliberately timed the launches to coincide with the ROK's timing for its controversial maritime survey mission (as many Japanese in the area believe),the coincidence of the missile shots and the ROK survey may have set back local efforts to repair bilateral relations. Academics and bureaucrats have been working under the radar to improve ties after the Liancourt Rocks flare-up last year, and some claim that the Takeshima Day affair was instigated from outside the prefecture. Looking ahead, Shimane Prefecture risks exacerbating the already tense situation further if it approves a maritime survey mission of its own into South Korean territorial waters surrounding Ulleungdo Island in August. END SUMMARY. -------------- Connecting the Dots Differently -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Most observers have pointed to the connection between the July 5 (JST) DPRK missile launches and the space shuttle Discovery launch, or the Fourth of July celebrations in Washington. In the coastal area of the Japan Sea closest to the disputed Takeshima islands, people's attention is drawn instead to the coincidence of North Korea's moves occurring at nearly the same time that a ROKG survey ship and military escort enter the disputed EEZ near Takeshima/Dokdo, or Liancourt, Rocks. ¶3. (SBU) Some tabloid TV programs in Osaka are already lumping the missile launches and Liancourt EEZ survey together as violations of Japanese sovereignty, and although hostility from North Korea has been telegraphed over several weeks, the Osakan public's reaction to South Korean actions was one of dismay and surprise--least not from the large ethnic Korean community. The increased fear factor from Taepodong and Nodong missiles landing in the Japan Sea has exacerbated western Japanese unease regarding a Korean Peninsula seemingly united in its aggressively anti-Japanese behavior. In addition, the ROKG appears to have damaged ties with the GOJ by refusing to give the Japanese prior official notification of the survey. Numerous Korea watchers in Osaka and Shimane believe that the biggest loser in the events of July 5 was the ROKG. ; -------------- Stormy Waters Ahead? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Public security officials and academics in Osaka claim the DPRK chose to launch its missiles into the Japan Sea on the same day that South Korea would reach Takeshima/Dokdo to conduct its maritime survey of the disputed territory to further sow dissent between Japan and the ROK. NOTE: These observers did not cite evidence to back up their claim. END NOTE. ¶5. (SBU) There are indications that the ROKG's survey may have set back efforts to rightside bilateral relations at the local level. In mid-June, poleconoff was told of numerous below-the-radar cultural exchanges and track two diplomacy projects by Shimane Prefectural University and the prefectural government. -------------- Things Were Looking Up... -------------- ¶6. (SBU) These contacts emphasized that the Takeshima Day issue was not an example of "homegrown" nationalism in Shimane. They cited as evidence the following: LDP prefectural assemblyman Hiromi Notsu, credited with raising the issue initially (and suddenly),lacked sufficient knowledge of Takeshima, doesn't represent that district, and usually uses a different style of phrasing his questions in the prefectural assembly. Local bureaucrats found Notsu's Takeshima Day proposal suspiciously well-prepared, leading to the view that Shimane was being set up to play the patsy in the territorial dispute issue by an organization from outside Shimane. When asked to speculate, one official stated his personal opinion that it could have been LDP HQ, an individual politician in Tokyo, or a right wing political organization from the capital. ¶7. (SBU) Associate Professor Yuji Fukuhara, a Korea expert, has been working with the recently elected governor of North Gyeongsang Province, who sought out Fukuhara as a partner to repair sister OSAKA KOBE 00000351 002 OF 002 state relations with Shimane, but out of the public eye. ¶8. (SBU) As of June, Shimane contacts advised poleconoff to be optimistic about rapproachement between Japan and the ROK, stating that the forces for reconciliation were much stronger than the others. On the Korean side, North Gyeongsang is said to be eager to receive Japanese foreign direct investment for its IT industry cluster, so at the local level, the Koreans were as eager to repair ties as the reconciliation faction is in Shimane. -------------- ... But Could Be Sinking Fast -------------- ¶9. (SBU) However, in early July, poleconoff was informed that Shimane Prefecture's General Affairs Department has started pushing for an August maritime survey of Ulleung-do (60 km west of Takeshima/Dokdo; part of ROK) as an academic research project. Although opposed by bureaucrats in the prefecture's Culture and International Affairs Division, the plans are still moving forward. Shimane officials will meet on July 25 to decide when the survey would occur in August. NOTE: It is not yet apparent whether Shimane has notified either the GOJ or the ROKG about their survey plans. END NOTE. Academics and International Affairs bureaucrats are worried that such a survey will only serve to escalate tensions in bilateral relations, running at cross purposes with numerous local efforts to repair grassroots ties. The prefecture has until now managed to maintain its policy separating territorial and cultural exchange issues with respect to the ROK. Nonetheless, recent provocations on both sides appear to be fraying the grassroots safety net that has promoted rational discourse and a negotiated solution to the territorial question. RUSSEL