CHOSEN SOREN'S 5-YEAR PLAN: FROM BAD TO WORSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L OSAKA KOBE 000238

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - CLASSIFIED BY LINE

SIPDIS

TOKYO PLEASE PASS TO NAGOYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016
TAGS: EFIN PGOV PINR PREL JA KN
SUBJECT: CHOSEN SOREN'S 5-YEAR PLAN: FROM BAD TO WORSE

Classified by Consul General Danny Russel for reasons 1.4
B and D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The surprise raid in March by Japanese
National Police on the Osaka office of the North Korean
Association Chosen Soren stunned its members. The raid and
its aftermath highlights the gradual decline in ideological,
financial and operational relevance of the organization in
the Kansai. Because North Korean permanent residents in
Osaka see little upside and much downside to active
membership, foreign currency remittances to the DPRK have
fallen by half since 2001. Observers point to the 2001
public admission by Kim Jong Il that DPRK agents had indeed
abducted Japanese citizens as a catalyst for the decline in
Osaka.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On the ideological front, there has been a clear
generational shift as younger North Korean residents are more
fully assimilated into Japanese society and are uninterested
or repelled by Kim Jong-Il,s regime. In addition, many
became disillusioned with the DPRK particularly as the
kidnapping issue has taken center stage. Materially, Korean
permanent residents see little personal benefit in belonging
to an organization that has little direct relevance to their
lives, and which is coming under increasingly close scrutiny
by a host of Japanese authorities. Any tangible benefits
they accrued in the past by belonging to Chosen Soren have
all but disappeared; the Japanese National Tax Agency (NTA)
has begun to target all its members. Many Korean permanent
residents fear any additional hardening of the DPRK's foreign
policy positions vis-a-vis Japan will lead to more punitive
measures against them.


3. (C) Chosen Soren's Kansai office has weakened
financially; remittances to the DPRK have fallen to less
than half of that in 2001. Chogin, the DPRK-affiliated
credit cooperative, has been emasculated as a source of
foreign currency funds for the DPRK. Financial flows from
Kansai to the DPRK now generally take the form of direct
contributions to Chosen Soren headquarters in Tokyo, or
hand-carrying of cash into the DPRK by visitors. The NTA has
aggressively targeted businessmen involved in Japan-DPRK
trade, and is expanding its scope to include small-scale
businessmen. Chosen Soren's staff salaries in Osaka have been
reduced to 150,000 yen per month (USD 1,200 at 115/1),paid
sporadically. Teachers at the North Korean school receive
only 100,000 yen per month(USD 850 at 115/1). Teachers and
staff have been reduced to selling crabs imported from the
DPRK to supplement their meager incomes.


4. (C) Operationally, Chosen Soren's Osaka office has
suffered the effects of decreasing ideological relevance,
decreased funding, and increased attention by local and
national law enforcement authorities. Chosen Soren
headquarters in Tokyo no longer has direct control over
branch offices, which now are forced to operate more or less
autonomously. The recent March raid on Chosen Soren's Osaka
office, which took place in Osaka but was conducted
noticeably by the National Police Agency, surfaced little or
no new information on the abduction issue, but served to
paralyze the organization,s operations, in the view of law
enforcement officials with direct knowledge of the operation.


5. (C) Comment: Capping the gradual decline in Chosen
Soren's finances and its relevance to the 30,000 North Korean
permanent residents living in Kansai and its environs, the
March raid on its Osaka office shows just how far it has
fallen in the last five years. Suffering from increased
pressure by law enforcement and tax officials, dwindling
finances, and now a siege mentality among its staff, it
appears unlikely that Chosen Soren's Osaka office will
recover.

RUSSEL