INDIA DOES NOT DISMISS MUSHARRAF PROPOSAL, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 008191 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/06/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK ASEC, IN, IZ SUBJECT: INDIA DOES NOT DISMISS MUSHARRAF PROPOSAL, BUT SEES LITTLE NEW NEW DELHI 00008191 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: David C. Mulford for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Foreign Minister Mukherjee told Ambassador December 6 that Pakistan President Musharraf's proposal on Kashmir contained no new ideas, but was instead an effort to repackage old proposals. He said the GoI would carefully assess Musharraf's message, adding that he saw "no negative signals" in the Pakistan President's December 5 interview on Indian television. The Ambassador welcomed further dialogue with India on regional issues, including Iraq. End Summary. Old Wine in New Bottle -------------- ¶2. (C) During a meeting primarily devoted to the question of civil nuclear legislation pending in Congress (septel),the Ambassador asked for Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee's views on Pakistan President Pervez Musharaff's "four-point solution" to the Kashmir dispute, presented during an interview on NDTV. Noting that the Pakistani President had offered his points in a new package, Mukherjee focused on the background of each proposal element: -- Autonomy: Mukherjee stated that both Musharraf and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had previously articulated their concepts of autonomy. -- Staggered demilitarization: Noting that, as Defense Minister, he had been responsible for the removal of 9000 Indian troops from the Kashmir valley, Mukherjee restated the GoI position, that deployments depend on security circumstances on the ground. -- Free movement of people: Mukherjee said that Singh had told Musharraf in Havana that it would not be possible either to redraw the boundaries of Jammu and Kashmir or erase the Line of Control. -- Indo-Pak-Kashmiri joint supervision mechanism: Mukherjee described this as a familiar idea; whether or not it can be implemented depends on the form of the mechanism. ¶3. (C) Mukherjee said that, in his view, the key question remained unanswered: how would Musharraf's proposal be implemented? While stating that he thought it would be more productive for India and Pakistan to discuss means of communication, joint projects, and confidence-building measures across the Line of Control, Mukherjee did not dismiss Musharraf's proposal. He said that both diplomatic (joint mechanism) and back-channel talks are underway between Pakistan and India, and concluded that Musharraf's televised message sent "no negative signals" about Pakistan's intentions to resolve the long-standing problem of Kashmir. Ambassador invites discussion of regional challenges, including Iraq -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Noting the imminent release of the Baker-Hamilton report, the Ambassador described for Mukherjee the Iraq policy review process now underway in Washington. He said the President would receive recommendations from a number of NEW DELHI 00008191 002.2 OF 002 sources, which he would likely assess between now and January, when he will deliver his State of the Union address to the new Congress. A variety of ideas will be debated, including whether to implement a phased withdrawal of troops from Iraq and the possibility of involving Syria and Iran in a regional diplomatic initiative. How the Iraq war is prosecuted will have major implications for West and South Asia, he concluded, and the U.S. national debate will be influenced to some extent by an international debate over the future of Iraq. The Ambassador invited Mukherjee to share his thoughts at an appropriate time. India skeptical but interested in Musharraf's Kashmir gambit -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Comment: Musharraf's proposal neglects to address Pakistan's control (or cession to the Chinese) of large areas that remain part of the former princely state of Kashmir, including the Northern Areas, Aksai Chin and "Azad Kashmir." While India has stated in the past that it is amenable to soft borders and various forms of autonomy, and has expressed willingness to consider carefully-designed joint supervisory mechanisms, it is most likely to balk at the prospect of withdrawing troops because of the history of terrorist infiltration and armed attacks from across the Line of Control. For hardliner separatists in Kashmir, Musharraf's statement came as a big blow, and terrorists may provide their own response by engaging in high profile attacks in the near future. Meanwhile, Mukherjee plans to visit Pakistan in January, and does not want to close the door prematurely on Musharraf's proposed Kashmir solution. Press reports indicate that the Prime Minister's oft-delayed trip to Pakistan may take place in March 2007 before Musharraf comes to Delhi for the SAARC summit in early April. Further, senior contacts familiar with the back-channel dialogue indicate that discussions have taken place along the lines of Musharraf's proposal. Post will report further on diplomatic and back-channel discussions during the lead up to those high level exchanges. End Comment. MULFORD