GOI BRIEFING: ARMS MANAGEMENT IN NEPAL MUST BE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 008047

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2026
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS KDEM NP CH IN
SUBJECT: GOI BRIEFING: ARMS MANAGEMENT IN NEPAL MUST BE
COMPLETE, CREDIBLE AND QUICK


Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiva Shankar
Mukherjee presided over a November 28 briefing of the New
Delhi diplomatic corps, with International Organizations
Additional Secretary K.C. Singh also in attendance, to
stress the need for speed in getting a team of UN monitors to
observe the arms management process in Nepal, which Mukherjee
said must be complete and credible before the interim
government could be put into place. He predicted the December
1 deadline for establishing an interim government will be
missed, causing the Maoists to cry betrayal. Mukherjee asked
that countries who had been requested to send monitors inform
the UN as soon as possible that they are ready and willing to
do so, noting that India was unwilling to send too many given
the "close relationship" of the two countries, but would send
monitors to other nations to free up others to come to Nepal.
A UN mandate for monitors is expected "within a few days," he
said. Mukherjee warned against delays, noting the dangers
that lie with the Maoists, the King, the army and the police.
After months of seeming introspection, India is clearly
moving ahead quickly in Nepal and expects others to do so,
too. India has also overcome most of its doubts about UN
involvement, and sees a window of opportunity that must not
be missed to make the peace accord stick. In a November 29
meeting with visiting Under Secretary Paula Dobriansky
(septel),Foreign Secretary Menon emphasized the GOI desire
to coordinate closely with the U.S. to strengthen democratic
institutions in Nepal. END SUMMARY.

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The Need for Speed is Paramount
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2. (C) Indian Ambassador to Nepal Shiva Shankar Mukherjee
stressed to the involved diplomatic corps in Delhi that the
commencement of arms management is key, and the need for
speed in completing it is paramount. In a November 28
briefing, he emphasized that "The fluid situation in Nepal
can slide back if momentum is not carried on," continuing
that he hoped he had conveyed a sense of urgency to the
participants. He underlined that Nepal has an opportunity
that must not be lost, observing "Nepal is enjoying the
goodwill of the entire world at the moment. We would like to
take it to fruition." Mukherjee noted that arms management
must spread throughout the country, and not be concentrated
only in the Kathmandu valley.


3. (C) Concerning a UN mandate for monitors, one diplomat
asked Mukherjee if the GOI requires a UN resolution, or if it
would be willing to accept any other form of mandate.
Mukherjee replied that the GOI is "comfortable with any
method adopted as long as it is the quickest and most
practical." The UN SYG wrote to the UNSC President before
November 21 to request a mandate for UN monitors, according
to Mukherjee, and he expects a reply to come within a few
days. He noted that it should be a "specific, time-bound
mandate," and not a "ruling mandate." "A 'blue-helmet
mandate' would demoralize," he opined.


4. (C) After the UNSC responds to the UN SYG, the UN will

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send a CONOPS (Concept of Operations) team to perform an
"assessment mission," which Mukherjee noted "should have been
there yesterday, but will probably take about four weeks to
arrive. We hope it will come urgently." The GOI feels this
advance team is unnecessary, according to Mukherjee, but the
UN will complete this step before it sends a team of
monitors. The advance team will have 35-40 members, and will
be followed by a 130-150 total member team of arms management
monitors, said Mukherjee, noting "we will urge the UN to have
more for the election." The monitors should be in civilian
clothes, not uniforms, argued Mukherjee, noting that each
country had been asked to provide one Lieutenant Colonel and
five majors. When asked if the advance team would be
considered enough to certify that the Maoists are separated
from their arms, Mukherjee stated that it would be up to the
UN to decide if it needed to wait for the larger team to make
that assessment. Questioned whether monitors would be able
to start tomorrow if they were deployed, Mukherjee answered
that monitoring could begin after a few days of briefings.
In addition to the monitoring of arms, there are groups among
the Maoists that would need to be separated, remarked
Mukherjee. "The Maoists are reportedly padding their numbers
with new recruits, and there are children in their ranks,
both groups of which would need to be weeded out."

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Indian Intentions on the Provision of UN Monitors
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5. (C) Regarding Indian intentions on monitor provision,
Mukherjee acknowledged that Nepal and India have "too close
of a relationship," and said it would be "easily
misinterpreted if there were a large amount of (Indian)
monitors. We don't want to give anyone the opportunity to
criticize." He offered that the GOI would be willing to
replace peacekeepers in other parts of the world in order to
free up monitors for Nepal. The Chinese Ambassador remarked
that he also wondered if China should send monitors, given
the proximity and close relationship of the two countries.

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No Interim Government Until Arms Management is Complete and
Credible
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6. (C) Mukherjee warned that arms management must be
complete and credible before an interim government is formed.
He articulated that this would not happen a few days from
now, and the interim government deadline of December 1 will
be missed. He predicted that the Maoists will put pressure
on the Seven Party Alliance to form the interim government
before completing the task of arms management, and that, if
and/or when refused, the Maoists will "scream betrayal."

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Elections Can Be "Reasonably Fair"
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7. (C) Turning to the monitoring of elections, Mukherjee
theorized that, while he doubts the election process can be
one-hundred percent "free and fair," it can be "reasonably

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fair." He reiterated the need for speed, stating that "no
one wants the May/June deadline for elections to be
transgressed," noting that the monsoon season, followed by
the festival season would mean that elections would be
delayed until November if they aren't held in May or June.
He declared that many election monitors would be required,
not because the Nepalese are unable to hold the election
themselves, but because they are in a "weakened, injured"
state right now. Foreign Secretary Menon echoed this line of
analysis in a November 29 meeting with Under Secretary Paula
Dobriansky (septel),arguing for close U.S.-India cooperation
to build Nepal's democratic institutions and describing an
"institutional vacuum" in areas relevant to Nepalese
democracy. "People will be scared and intimidated by the
Maoist militia," commented Mukherjee, adding that they have
been conditioned to be scared of the Maoists.

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Where Does the Danger of Delays Really Lie?
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8. (C) The Brazilian Ambassador asked Mukherjee if the
danger of delays (of monitors, elections, etc.) was limited
to the Maoists, or were there other factors to fear?
Mukherjee responded that the dangers are three-fold. One,
the Maoists' commitment is suspect. They have continued to
carry on "unacceptable things" when they said that they would
not do. Two, the king is still around and is still a factor
to be weighed. And three, the Nepalese National Army and the
police are "looked upon with suspicion." Their morale must
be raised, he said, adding that police stations all over the
country are defunct and destroyed, and though they are
supposed to be loyal to the state, they are a demoralized
force. "In the past," he said, "the police were told not to
provoke the Maoists until the peace accord is signed." Now
that it has been signed, the situation must be reversed,
asserted Mukherjee.

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Comment: The Elephant Starts to Move
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9. (C) This meeting was a refreshingly frank and uncommonly
open discussion by the MEA of Indian thinking on Nepal. The
mere fact that a briefing for the diplomatic corps was held
shows that the GOI is concerned that progress in the peace
process could backslide. India's desire for the UN to move
quickly and for countries to send monitors as soon as
possible is a sign that the GOI does not have complete
confidence in the Maoists to do their part, and that it views
the peace accord as tenuous. The diplomatic corps in New
Delhi appeared to be of one mind on the urgency of the
situation, although only Norway stated that it would be
sending monitors and that its monitors are ready to go now.
India has clearly decided to move quickly, acting in concert
with the international community. It has overcome its doubts
about UN assistance in doing so. The MEA clearly sees a
window of opportunity in Nepal and does not want to lose this
chance to forge a lasting peace. END COMMENT.

MULFORD