INDIA'S COMMUNIST PARTIES DEBATE HOW TO USE THEIR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 08 NEW DELHI 008003

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON IN CH NP
SUBJECT: INDIA'S COMMUNIST PARTIES DEBATE HOW TO USE THEIR
INCREASED POWER EVEN AS THEY FACE LOSING IT

REF: A. NEW DELHI 7762

B. NEW DELHI 7796

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Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Joel Ehrendreich for reasons
1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: India's Left parties have a guaranteed
niche in Indian politics and enjoy some advantages. India
has the largest number of poor people of any country on
earth, including many of the most exploited and oppressed
populations found anywhere. These make a natural
constituency for a class-based, socialist block of parties
that espouse the interests of the poor. Although Communism
has a long history in India, it peaked at 20 percent of the
votes in 1962, and has since declined to around 10 percent,
with Communists unable to form state governments outside of
the "red forts" of West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. With a
solid block of 60 MPs, the Left currently wields considerable
power by keeping the UPA in place. Slavish devotion to
ideological orthodoxy may prevent the Communists from taking
advantage of political opportunities, however. The dominant
Communist Party of India (Marxist) carefully cultivates
strong ties to China and has the reputation of a China
apologist. While harshly criticizing every aspect of US
economic and foreign policy, the party has been typically
silent on Chinese failings. Faced with a rapidly changing
political and economic environment, the Left has been unable
to craft a new Left ideology free of remaining Communist
orthodoxy. If it is not more quick on its feet, it will
remain relegated to just the three states it presently
controls and in West Bengal, may see erosion of its base with
the rise of more radical Maoist groups. In other states, its
constituency could drift into the caste-based, regional
parties, who do not rely on ideology but simple
caste/regional appeals quickly understood by the common man.
End Summary.

Communism Has a History
--------------


2. (SBU) Communism was imported to India in the 1920's by
the nascent Soviet Union, but the Communist Party of India
(CPI) was not recognized by the ruling British until it
supported the British war effort during World War Two. In
1962, when the CPI condemned the Chinese attack on India as
aggression, a pro-Chinese faction argued that Communist
states do not "invade" they only "liberate." The pro-Chinese
group split to form the Communist Party of India (Marxist).
The two competing parties mirrored the Sino-Soviet split
until 1977, when they worked together to oppose Indira
Gandhi's declaration of emergency. Although the CPI/CPI(M)
split has largely healed, the CPI(M) has resisted repeated
calls for a formal reunification. With the CPI in a decades
long decline and seemingly headed for oblivion, the CPI(M) is
determined to be the flagship of a four party Left coalition
called the Left Front (LF),which has come to play a crucial
role in the current UPA government. In addition to the CPI
and the CPI(M),other LF members are the Revolutionary
Socialist Party (RSP) and the All India Forward Bloc (AIFB).

Culminating in Current Power
--------------

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3. (SBU) The Communists have had several brief flirtations
with power in New Delhi, but have largely confined themselves
to their "Red forts" of West Bengal (where they have been in
power for three decades),Kerala (where they have been in
power intermittently -- heading a left coalition that
switches with a Congress-dominated coalition almost every
election) and the small Northeastern state of Tripura.
Alarmed by the ascension of a "rightist" government headed by
the Hindu Nationalist BJP to power in New Delhi, the
Communists vowed to support any coalition that could displace
the NDA. After the historic 2004 elections, the Communists
elected to support the UPA government in Parliament from
"outside," agreeing to use its 60 MPs to keep the UPA in
power, but without access to Cabinet Minister appointments.

But Unable to Spread
--------------


4. (C) The Communist leadership is well aware that it is no
longer a national party, with influence largely confined to
three states. Having now captured an unprecedented amount of
power, the CPI(M) is committed to an expansion program aimed
at establishing powerful local parties in Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Orissa, Assam, Tamil Nadu
and Andhra Pradesh. However, having enjoyed power in its
"red forts" for the past three decades, the dedicated party
cadre are largely confined to some South Indians and Bengalis
without the language skills, dedication or cultural acumen to
recruit caste-ridden, traditional, Hindi speakers from across
the "cow belt." The Communists hope to attract new converts
among India's most oppressed classes, the Dalits (formerly
untouchables),tribals and Muslims. Although the CPI(M) has
attracted some following in tribal areas, its expansion
efforts have largely been stillborn, as Dalits have
gravitated to their own regional parties and Muslims remain
suspicious. Muslim reticence will only be increased by the
upcoming release of the Sachar report, which documents that
despite 30 years in power, the Communists have done little or
nothing to raise the social and economic status of West
Bengal's 24 percent Muslim minority.

Opposed to "Neo-liberalism"
--------------


5. (C) The Communists have always denigrated Congress as a
"dynastic party" that espouses socialist principles while
encouraging monopoly capitalism. The Communists have roundly
condemned the moves of Congress (under the tutelage of then
Finance Minister and now Prime Minister Manmohan Singh) to
liberalize the economy and bring India closer to the US.
Their stance has not been clearly defined, but they have
espoused the retention of a "mixed economy" that would retain
much of India's public sector. They have also opposed or
hampered efforts to increase Foreign Direct Investment (FDI),
liberalize banking laws, reform the public pension system,
establish Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and other efforts to
liberalize the economy. These disagreements are regularly
aired in periodic "coordination meetings" between the LF and
Congress and repeated LF reminders that they prop up the
government has caused the Congress-dominated UPA to move
slowly and cautiously. CPI leader AB Bardhan recently

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criticized the proposal of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram to
reduce tax rates as a response to increased revenue
collection. Bardhan stated that despite over ten years of
economic growth rates of over six percent, the Indian poverty
level has only been reduced by 0.74 percent. (Note:
Bardhan was probably referring to a report just released by
the public sector National Sample Survey Organization,
stating that between 1994 and 2005, poverty decreased by 0.74
percent per year, with modest acceleration in poverty
reduction in recent years.) He also noted that "It was
really strange that here is a Finance Minister, who wants to
pass on the benefit of higher revenue collection to
corporations rather than spending more on education and
health to alleviate poverty."

And Wary of the US
--------------


6. (C) The ideologues of the CPI(M) have justified their
anti-US stance by decrying the spread of globalization, which
they define as a means of increasing US "hegemony" over the
developing world and its resources. CPI(M) leader Sitaram
Yechury recently defined globalization as the "removal of
restrictions on the movement of capital" that resulted in a
"direct attack on the economic sovereignty of any country,
which is followed by a direct attack on its political
freedom." Yechury expressed Communist opposition to the
US/India Nuclear Agreement in similar terms, stating that
"this will mean that we will have to live at the mercy of the
US for our nuclear requirements." Recently, the Communists
have opposed the death sentence imposed on Saddam Hussain, as
a way of mobilizing opposition to US Middle East policy,
organizing large protest demonstrations in West Bengal. At
the protests, an LF leader, Biman Bose condemned the "US
imperialist designs, its invasion of Iraq and abetment to
Israel in the recent bombings in Lebanon and the Gaza strip."

Countering a Negative Trend
--------------


7. (SBU) The Communist view of the US was articulated by
CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat (As India's most
powerful Communist, Karat would become Prime Minister if the
LF ever formed the government.) in the party organ "People's
Democracy." He stated that:

--The UPA is committed by the Common Minimum Program (CMP) to
"pursue an independent foreign policy and promote
multi-polarity in international relations."

--"The UPA's foreign policy faces serious distortions because
of the obsessive drive to somehow harmonize positions on
regional and global issues with the US's global strategies.
This runs counter to the commitments made in the CMP."

--The US is in decline because of its "arrogant,
unilateralist drive of the Bush administration to extend and
consolidate US hegemony."


8. (SBU) Karat then elaborated US foreign policies that
India should oppose.


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--India should not "acquiesce in the charade enacted in
occupied Iraq."

--Calling the global democracy initiative a "disgraceful
enterprise," Karat called on India to "dissociate" from it.

--Calling Israel "the front-line state in the US global
strategy to reorder the oil-rich Middle-East," Karat opined
that "India's identification with the 'war on terror' and the
strategic alliance with the US and Israel will have
unfortunate consequences."

--Karat also criticized the UPA for seeking "the help of
pro-Israeli neo-conservative and Jewish lobbies in the US to
canvass support in the US Congress for the Indo-US nuclear
deal."

--Accusing the UPA of gross naivet regarding the US, Karat
pointed out that the UPA "uncritically accepted the US
declaration in March 2005 that the US aims to help India
become a world class power in the 21st Century," without
looking "deeper to see what the US motives are."

--Karat intoned that it was a serious mistake for the UPA to
hitch "India's fortunes to a presidency and an administration
which has the worst record in trampling on international
laws."

--He also assessed that it would be "extremely unlikely" that
the US House and Senate will be able to reconcile their
competing bills regarding the Indo-US Nuclear Cooperation
Agreement in the lame duck session.

--Karat claimed that the Agreement was part of an overarching
US strategy meant to "bind India to its side" on energy
security, pointing to US hostility to the Iran-Pakistan-India
gas pipeline.

--The earlier votes against Iran in the IAEA meetings were
inimical to India's interests and energy security."

--The US "exercised its veto power" to shoot down Shashi
Tharoor's candidacy for UN Secretary General.

With an Alternative
--------------


9. (SBU) Karat's vision of the ideal foreign policy would
contain the following:

--India should "play an important and constructive role in
advancing...the defense of national sovereignty against
hegemonic trends, strengthen multilateral relations and forge
South/South ties."

--India took the "correct stand in supporting Venezuela's
candidature for the UNSC."

--India should encourage multipolarity through "trilateral
cooperation between Russia, China and India.

Insider Views of the US Relationship

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--------------


10. (C) Poloff met with LF leaders between November 13-22,
who spoke candidly about their views on the US/India
relationship. Debrabrat Biswas, the AIFB General Secretary,
intoned that there is a basic difference in outlook between
the Left and the USG that cannot be bridged over the short
term. Stating that the US positions on Palestine, Iraq and
the "war on terror" were wrong and deep-seated, he expressed
no confidence that US midterm elections would result in
improvement, predicting no "broad shift" in US foreign
policy. Biswas pointed out that the Left's objections were
not confined only to the Bush Administration, as the Left had
also boycotted President Clinton's address to the Indian
Parliament. Mohammad Salim, the Deputy Leader of the
CPI(M)'s Parliamentary delegation, emphasized that his party
wants "better ties, better relations" between India and the
US, as long as they ensure India's national interests. Salim
pointed out that the "new economic world order" was "creating
problems for the poor of all nations," and as "uplift of the
poor is a top priority" for the CPI(M),there was cause for
"apprehension." The CPI(M),being "pragmatic and
nationalist," wants to prevent US infringement of Indian
interests, especially since India is a "weak player" and can
be dominated by a "strong player" like the US. Salim
emphasized that he is not angry only at the Bush
Administration, but opposed to long-term US policies carried
out by both Republicans and Democrats. He specifically
mentioned CPI(M) objections to the "expansion of NATO into
Afghanistan," US Middle East policy and a "selective approach
to terrorism," which gives Pakistan a "free hand to support
terrorism directed against India." Salim also claimed that
for the USG, human rights is a "weapon to be used selectively
against opponents," and that the US maintains a "double
standard" on disarmament, calling for other countries to
eliminate nuclear weapons while expanding its own.

Privately Skeptical of Increased Power
--------------


11. (C) Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) General
S ecretary Abani Roy was very skeptical that Communist
influence would increase in India, predicting that the Left
would lose seats in the 2009 Parliamentary elections. He
pointed out that the Left's big victories in 2004 were a
"backlash" against the BJP. Emphasizing that 2009 would be a
different story, Roy said that after supporting the UPA for
five years the Communists would have to explain to the
electorate why they had not produced. Roy emphasized that
decades of power had corrupted the Left, and that the CPI(M)
was no longer responsive to the poor in the states that it
ruled. Roy claimed that it would be good for the Communists
to experience defeat, otherwise it would lose the confidence
of India's most exploited and weakest sections. Biswas
predicted a torturously slow growth for the Left parties in
the years ahead, noting that they only captured 10 percent of
the popular vote in recent elections. Biswas believed that
many voters remain suspicious of Communists for their
"historic mistake" of not supporting the independence
movement. He noted that the Left was gaining support in
"tribal pockets," most particularly in Bihar and Jharkhand,
where it is increasingly viewed as a viable alternative to

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the anti-tribal established parties. The CPI(M)'s Salim was
adamant that popular acceptance of the Left is growing, and
predicted that by "concentrating on targets of opportunity"
the Left parties would increase their seats from 60 to 100 in
the 2009 election. Some of these seats, he maintained, would
come from the eventual merger of Indian Maoists into the
CPI(M). Salim (himself from West Bengal) predicted that
Indian Maoists would respond to developments in Nepal and
that their overground political party the Communist Party of
India (Marxist Leninist),could merge with the CPI(M) before
the next election.

Scenarios for Entering the Government
--------------


12. (C) Over the long term, the Left leaders were guardedly
optimistic that they could eventually enter the government,
but only as part of a coalition that may or may not include
Congress. The RSP's Roy was adamant that the Left parties
could not succeed unless they demonstrated that they could
"build the nation and ensure development that benefits the
poor rather than the wealthy." He was critical of current
trends, stating that the UPA had failed to tackle corruption,
while West Bengal Chief Minister Buddadeb was "neither left
nor right" but was "manipulating democracy to benefit the
wealthy, while accepting the votes of the poor." Roy
predicted that this would hurt the Left in upcoming
elections, as it would be "held responsible." Biswas was
pleased that the LF had taken on the role of the
"constructive opposition," as the BJP was no longer playing
that role. He was hopeful that if the Left parties learned
to cooperate, they could construct a "peoples' alternative,"
providing leadership to a coalition of regional parties
capable of forming the next government. Asserting that
Congress was in decline around the country, the Left now has
an opportunity to "fill that vacuum." If we fail, he noted,
"regional, feudal and castist parties" will come to the fore.
Predicting that the UPA would grow weak, Biswas warned that
the BJP still posed a "real threat" and the best way to
counter it was to compel the UPA to concentrate on "poverty
alleviation," which would nullify the appeal of Hindu
nationalism. Emphasizing that the CPI(M) must remain
"engaged" to sustain growth, Salim said his party was
learning to play the game of coalition politics and would
always be open to joining the government under the right
circumstances.

Comment - Beset by Inherent Weaknesses
--------------


13. (C) The Indian Left has carved out a strong role for
itself in Indian coalition politics and parliamentary
democracy, but has yet to derive a formula for taking power
in New Delhi (even as part of a coalition of like-minded
parties) or substantially increasing its portion of the vote
share. In a political landscape increasingly dominated by
petty-minded regional parties, the Left is one of the few
groups with a national scope and an underlying ideology.
However, this very ideology is also an inherent weakness.
This was crucially demonstrated during the recent visit of
Chinese President Hu Jintao. The slavish devotion of the
Communist leaders to China during the visit hurt them badly

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with the public. The Indian public writ large has
demonstrated time and again its basic commitment to
democracy, embraced a free press and championed the rights of
the Tibetans and organized labor. The Communists' embrace of
China puts them on the wrong side of all of these issues.
Most Indians also favor closer ties with the US, viewing it
as another democratic state, which shares similar values and
with which there are extensive and growing personal ties. By
contrast, Indians are inherently distrustful of China, which
they view as a dangerous nuclear armed state that has gone to
war with India once already, has been a strong supporter of
Islamist military dictatorships in Pakistan and is a powerful
future economic rival. Many Indians fail to understand why
the Communists condemn the US so vociferously while remaining
silent on China.


14. (C) The Communists and their Left party supporters are
also divided amongst themselves as to what shape their
ideology should take. The moderates would like to refashion
the Left into a democratic socialist alternative similar to
the Social Democrats of Western Europe. While they would
like to retain some of Marx's critique of the capitalist
economic order and champion the rights of the poor and the
oppressed, who they view as victims of that order, they want
to distance themselves from the totalitarian baggage of
Communism. There is also an inherent resentment amongst
Leftists regarding the domination of the CPI(M). While there
are divisions between the CPI(M) and the other parties, there
are also deep divisions within the CPI(M) itself. These gaps
could become increasingly apparent in the years ahead, as all
of India's political parties are forced to adjust to a
rapidly changing world. In such an environment, those who
cling to orthodoxies and are not flexible are bound to be
overtaken.


15. (C) There is a niche for leftist parties in Indian
politics. The country has the world's largest population of
poor people, many of whom face exploitation and
discrimination and have been routinely deprived of the
benefits of India's growing economy. This pervasive poverty
is fueling a growing Maoist insurgency throughout Eastern
India, which the CPI(M) views as a growing challenge that
could siphon off support and undermine CPI(M) dominance.
With this in mind, the CPI(M) has taken a lead role in
negotiating a settlement of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal in
hopes of eventually co-opting the Maoist movement into its
parliamentary path. Any party or group of parties that takes
up the cause of India's most downtrodden, is guaranteed
support, but the CPI(M) wants to ensure that it gains this
support and not the more radical Maoists. Likewise, India
has a long history of Left politics and three states which
have been ruled off and on by Communists for decades.
However, for the Communists to expand into other states, they
must face up to the serious challenge posed by the regional
and caste-based parties who are competing for the same
electorate. The regional parties are ideologyless. They
blindly emphasize caste or regional identity and take no
pains to relate to the world at large. Such parties are easy
for less-educated Indian voters to understand and appreciate.
If the Indian Left does not shake itself out and put
together a pragmatic and progressive alternative to these
narrowly-based parties, it may lose its chance to share power

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in New Delhi.


15. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD