BJP FLEXING ITS MUSCLES AGAIN ON TERRORISM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007986 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV PTER PREL PINR KISL IN SUBJECT: BJP FLEXING ITS MUSCLES AGAIN ON TERRORISM, NATIONAL SECURITY NEW DELHI 00007986 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D) SUMMARY: AN OLD DOG REVIVES OLD TRICKS -------------- ¶1. (C) During the first three days of the Winter Session of Parliament, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) flexed its muscles, galvanized its base and reinvigorated its role as an opposition party. On November 22, the BJP staged a massive demonstration in Delhi. Reports put attendance somewhere between 50,000 (our journalist contacts) to 100,000 (BJP estimates). All high level BJP leaders attended the rally, including former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha L.K. Advani, and newly re-elected BJP President Rajnath Singh. They gathered to demand the UPA government reject clemency requests for Afzal Guru, a Kashmiri terrorist convicted in the 2001 Parliament attack. The speeches and slogans were harsh, and criticized the UPA government for failing to address issues of internal security and terrorism. On November 23, BJP and Shiv Sena members caused both Houses of Parliament to adjourn by creating chaos and chanting demands to hang Afzal Guru. On November 24, Advani criticized the GOI for not bringing up the border issue in Arunachal Pradesh with the Chinese President on his recent trip to India. The BJP, bolstered by wins in municipal elections in Uttar Pradesh, is clearly gearing up its efforts to regain power. With national elections on the horizon in 2007 in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttaranchal, and Manipur, the BJP is vying for power at the national level. While looking for any issue that demonstrates the UPA's failure to respond to the needs of people, the BJP is using internal security and issues of nationalism to stoke emotions. By the looks of the demonstration and the first days of Parliament's Winter Session, they are proving again to be a sharp thorn in the side of the UPA government. DAY 1: TAKING OVER THE STREETS AND DEMANDING ACTION -------------- ¶2. (C) On November 22, the first day of the Winter Session of Parliament, Parliament adjourned, early as usual, to honor the death of politicians who had passed away. Meanwhile, BJP leaders and supporters took to the streets of Delhi to demonstrate discontent with the UPA government, and in particular its handling of security issues. Ajay Singh, Senior Correspondent, STARNEWS and Harish Khare, Political Editor, The Hindu, told us participation did not exceed 50,000 people. The BJP estimates were closer to 100,000 people. It was the largest political gathering in Delhi since March 2006. BJP leaders led marches from various sectors of Delhi, disrupting traffic throughout the city and finally converging on Parliament Street. Though the gathering was illegally held, the police announced from the dais that all protesters were "arrested," but due to the large number and not enough space to detain everyone, everyone was subsequently "released," evoking the crowd to burst into laughter. I'LL HIT YOU WITH MY CANE, SONNY! -------------- ¶3. (C) Invigorated by the gains in the Uttar Pradesh NEW DELHI 00007986 002.2 OF 003 municipal elections, where the BJP gained 6 mayoral seats, the BJP has embarked on a campaign to challenge the UPA government and its policies. Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, though speaking from a chair due to age and infirmity, powerfully issued a warning to the UPA government, demanding that the government deal with internal security and terrorism or face a public uprising against its rule. Vajpayee appealed particularly to the youth in the crowd to demand accountability from the UPA government or work to change the government. Vajpayee's words were harsh, criticizing the government for being confused on how to tackle terrorism in the country and for engaging in talks with Pakistan on counter-terrorism efforts. (Note: it was Vajpayee who, as PM, went to great lengths to engage in talks to stimulate a relationship with Pakistan. End Note) All BJP leaders who spoke, including Rajnath Singh and L.K. Advani, reiterated the criticisms. They also pressed the GOI to reject the clemency appeals for Kashmiri terrorist Afzal Guru, who is sentenced to be hanged for his involvement in the 2001 Parliament attack. BJP leaders and participants chanted slogans in Hindi which accused the Congress party of being "in bed" with terrorists. DAY 2: A HOUSE OF DISREPUTE AND DISRUPTION -------------- ¶4. (U) On November 23, upon commencement of business, BJP and Shiv Sena Members in both Houses of Parliament, rose from their seats and chanted slogans demanding the death sentence for Afzal Guru. The members blocked the aisles in the Lok Sabha, and in the Rajye Sabha members of the two parties marched to the "well" of the House. Other parties also used the day as an opportunity to raise their concerns, protesting and chanting their demands. The heads of each House decided to adjourn, stating that it was impossible to conduct business amidst all the chaos. DAY 3: WORKING THE PROCESS, PASSING A RESOLUTION -------------- ¶5. (C) Controversial remarks by the Chinese Ambassador to India regarding Arunachal Pradesh gave more fodder to L.K. Advani and the BJP's argument that the UPA government is not adequately addressing internal security or matters of national integrity. On November 24, L.K. Advani condemned the GOI for not addressing the border issue with the Chinese President on his visit. He then pushed for a resolution to be passed in both Houses of Parliament that will clearly state Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India. Commentators subsequently pointed out the hypocrisy of Advani's call for legislation, since the BJP never passed such a resolution when the NDA government was in power. COMMENT: IS NATIONAL SECURITY THE MAGIC FORMULA? -------------- ¶6. (C) Has the BJP stumbled on the magic formula of "national security" that will ensure its rise back to power? While the rally on November 22 had a strong showing, our contacts indicate the "rent-a-mob" audience was lackluster. Ajay Singh stated, "the BJP is still struggling to find an issue that will capture the people's imagination." Still, the national security issues raised and the numbers present indicate that, while it may not be a magic formula, it still NEW DELHI 00007986 003.2 OF 003 packs a punch. Vijay Goel, former BJP Minister who worked in Prime Minister Vajpayee's office, told us that the BJP will continue to critique many of the UPA government's policies. He noted a laundry list of failures of the UPA government, including internal security, terrorism, increasing prices and inflation, the Bangladeshi refugee situation, and the Delhi sealing drive. The real question is whether the BJP can string together a series of issues that convince the people that the UPA government's policies on internal security and terrorism do not do enough to protect them. The BJP's challenge lies in being able to find enough material in the area of nationalism and national security to keep the heat on the UPA government from now until the state elections in 2007 and from then until the national elections in 2009. With every terrorist attack, the BJP's message resonates more. MULFORD