BJP FLEXING ITS MUSCLES AGAIN ON TERRORISM,

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SUBJECT: BJP FLEXING ITS MUSCLES AGAIN ON TERRORISM,
NATIONAL SECURITY


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Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


SUMMARY: AN OLD DOG REVIVES OLD TRICKS
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1. (C) During the first three days of the Winter Session of
Parliament, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) flexed its
muscles, galvanized its base and reinvigorated its role as an
opposition party. On November 22, the BJP staged a massive
demonstration in Delhi. Reports put attendance somewhere
between 50,000 (our journalist contacts) to 100,000 (BJP
estimates). All high level BJP leaders attended the rally,
including former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, leader
of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha L.K. Advani, and newly
re-elected BJP President Rajnath Singh. They gathered to
demand the UPA government reject clemency requests for Afzal
Guru, a Kashmiri terrorist convicted in the 2001 Parliament
attack. The speeches and slogans were harsh, and criticized
the UPA government for failing to address issues of internal
security and terrorism. On November 23, BJP and Shiv Sena
members caused both Houses of Parliament to adjourn by
creating chaos and chanting demands to hang Afzal Guru. On
November 24, Advani criticized the GOI for not bringing up
the border issue in Arunachal Pradesh with the Chinese
President on his recent trip to India. The BJP, bolstered by
wins in municipal elections in Uttar Pradesh, is clearly
gearing up its efforts to regain power. With national
elections on the horizon in 2007 in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab,
Uttaranchal, and Manipur, the BJP is vying for power at the
national level. While looking for any issue that
demonstrates the UPA's failure to respond to the needs of
people, the BJP is using internal security and issues of
nationalism to stoke emotions. By the looks of the
demonstration and the first days of Parliament's Winter
Session, they are proving again to be a sharp thorn in the
side of the UPA government.

DAY 1: TAKING OVER THE STREETS AND DEMANDING ACTION
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2. (C) On November 22, the first day of the Winter Session of
Parliament, Parliament adjourned, early as usual, to honor
the death of politicians who had passed away. Meanwhile, BJP
leaders and supporters took to the streets of Delhi to
demonstrate discontent with the UPA government, and in
particular its handling of security issues. Ajay Singh,
Senior Correspondent, STARNEWS and Harish Khare, Political
Editor, The Hindu, told us participation did not exceed
50,000 people. The BJP estimates were closer to 100,000
people. It was the largest political gathering in Delhi
since March 2006. BJP leaders led marches from various
sectors of Delhi, disrupting traffic throughout the city and
finally converging on Parliament Street. Though the
gathering was illegally held, the police announced from the
dais that all protesters were "arrested," but due to the
large number and not enough space to detain everyone,
everyone was subsequently "released," evoking the crowd to
burst into laughter.

I'LL HIT YOU WITH MY CANE, SONNY!
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3. (C) Invigorated by the gains in the Uttar Pradesh

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municipal elections, where the BJP gained 6 mayoral seats,
the BJP has embarked on a campaign to challenge the UPA
government and its policies. Former Prime Minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee, though speaking from a chair due to age and
infirmity, powerfully issued a warning to the UPA government,
demanding that the government deal with internal security and
terrorism or face a public uprising against its rule.
Vajpayee appealed particularly to the youth in the crowd to
demand accountability from the UPA government or work to
change the government. Vajpayee's words were harsh,
criticizing the government for being confused on how to
tackle terrorism in the country and for engaging in talks
with Pakistan on counter-terrorism efforts. (Note: it was
Vajpayee who, as PM, went to great lengths to engage in talks
to stimulate a relationship with Pakistan. End Note) All
BJP leaders who spoke, including Rajnath Singh and L.K.
Advani, reiterated the criticisms. They also pressed the GOI
to reject the clemency appeals for Kashmiri terrorist Afzal
Guru, who is sentenced to be hanged for his involvement in
the 2001 Parliament attack. BJP leaders and participants
chanted slogans in Hindi which accused the Congress party of
being "in bed" with terrorists.

DAY 2: A HOUSE OF DISREPUTE AND DISRUPTION
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4. (U) On November 23, upon commencement of business, BJP and
Shiv Sena Members in both Houses of Parliament, rose from
their seats and chanted slogans demanding the death sentence
for Afzal Guru. The members blocked the aisles in the Lok
Sabha, and in the Rajye Sabha members of the two parties
marched to the "well" of the House. Other parties also used
the day as an opportunity to raise their concerns, protesting
and chanting their demands. The heads of each House decided
to adjourn, stating that it was impossible to conduct
business amidst all the chaos.

DAY 3: WORKING THE PROCESS, PASSING A RESOLUTION
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5. (C) Controversial remarks by the Chinese Ambassador to
India regarding Arunachal Pradesh gave more fodder to L.K.
Advani and the BJP's argument that the UPA government is not
adequately addressing internal security or matters of
national integrity. On November 24, L.K. Advani condemned
the GOI for not addressing the border issue with the Chinese
President on his visit. He then pushed for a resolution to
be passed in both Houses of Parliament that will clearly
state Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India.
Commentators subsequently pointed out the hypocrisy of
Advani's call for legislation, since the BJP never passed
such a resolution when the NDA government was in power.

COMMENT: IS NATIONAL SECURITY THE MAGIC FORMULA?
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6. (C) Has the BJP stumbled on the magic formula of "national
security" that will ensure its rise back to power? While the
rally on November 22 had a strong showing, our contacts
indicate the "rent-a-mob" audience was lackluster. Ajay
Singh stated, "the BJP is still struggling to find an issue
that will capture the people's imagination." Still, the
national security issues raised and the numbers present
indicate that, while it may not be a magic formula, it still

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packs a punch. Vijay Goel, former BJP Minister who worked in
Prime Minister Vajpayee's office, told us that the BJP will
continue to critique many of the UPA government's policies.
He noted a laundry list of failures of the UPA government,
including internal security, terrorism, increasing prices and
inflation, the Bangladeshi refugee situation, and the Delhi
sealing drive. The real question is whether the BJP can
string together a series of issues that convince the people
that the UPA government's policies on internal security and
terrorism do not do enough to protect them. The BJP's
challenge lies in being able to find enough material in the
area of nationalism and national security to keep the heat on
the UPA government from now until the state elections in 2007
and from then until the national elections in 2009. With
every terrorist attack, the BJP's message resonates more.
MULFORD