HU JINTAO'S VISIT TO INDIA: LOFTY WORDS BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 007942 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR SCA AND EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR ETRD EINV MNUC PARM IN CH SUBJECT: HU JINTAO'S VISIT TO INDIA: LOFTY WORDS BUT LITTLE SUBSTANCE NEW DELHI 00007942 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The November 20-23 visit to India of Chinese President Hu Jintao, while not earth-shattering, appears to have concentrated on economic agreements through a "ten-pronged strategy" while downplaying contentious border disputes. The Joint Declaration announced on 21 November contains language related to cooperation in the civilian nuclear technology field, but falls short of guaranteeing a positive China vote in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. However, after a three and one half-hour discussion at the delegation-level, the PM and Hu inked thirteen agreements, including the establishment of Consulates-General at Guangzhou and Kolkata, the installation of a hot line between the two Foreign Ministers, new land granted to the GOI to re-open a Consulate-General in Shanghai, a Promotion and Protection of Investments Agreement, and a protocol which facilitates the export of Indian rice to China. We will report next week on the Indian strategic community's considered views of Hu's visit. END SUMMARY -------------- A "ten-pronged" strategy to bilateral relations -------------- ¶2. (U) On 21 November, India's Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and China's President, Hu Jintao, announced that the two sides agreed to a "ten-pronged strategy" to develop their strategic partnership with the following components: a) Ensure comprehensive development of bilateral relations: They agreed to hold regular summit-level meetings and promote greater interaction among political parties. It includes the opening of new Consulates-General in Guangzhou and Calcutta as well as the GOI acquiring new land in Shanghai for the re-opening of its long-closed consulate. b) Strengthen institutional links and dialogue mechanisms: It stipulates the installation of a hotline between the Foreign Ministers and cites methods for systematizing ministry-to ministry interactions. c) Consolidate commercial and economic links: The two sides will aim to increase bilateral trade to $40 billion per year by 2010 from an estimated $23 billion in 2006. In addition, a joint task force will be initiated to conduct a feasibility study on a Regional Trade Agreement by next year. They also signed a bilateral investment protection agreement which should create favorable conditions for foreign direct investment. d) All-around cooperation in mutually beneficial areas: The two sides will encourage collaboration of their oil enterprises for joint exploration of third country hydrocarbon resources, promote closer cooperation in the IT sectors, and set up mechanisms for the resolution of trans-border river issues. e) Establish mutual trust through defense cooperation: The May 2006 Memorandum of Understanding on Defense Exchanges (equally vague and non-substantive) will be implemented. In addition, mechanisms will be strengthened to maintain peace NEW DELHI 00007942 002.2 OF 003 and tranquillity on the Indian-Chinese borders. f) Early settlement of boundary issues: Both sides are committed to the early resolution of outstanding boundary disputes. g) Promote trans-border trade: It was announced that they will strengthen border trade through existing locations and explore the opening of additional routes. h) Strengthen science and technology cooperation: India and China will engage in joint projects including nano, bio, and space technologies, climate change, weather forecasting, and earthquake monitoring. i) Expand cooperation in the regional and international arenas: The two sides will take an innovative and forward-looking approach to civilian nuclear cooperation while safeguarding non-proliferation principles. j) Revitalize cultural ties through exchanges: China invited 5000 Indian youths to visit China over the next five years, and the two sides agreed that 2007 will be the "India-China Friendship Through Tourism Year." -------------- The Joint Declaration points to cooperation in civilian nuclear technology -------------- ¶3. (U) The 21 November Joint Declaration pointed to increased cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear technology several times, but failed to guarantee Chinese support for the Nuclear Suppliers Group exception for India. Article 27 of the declaration stated that, "Considering that for both India and China, expansion of (the) civilian nuclear technology programme (sic) is an essential and important component of their national energy plans to ensure energy security, the two sides agree to promote cooperation in the field of nuclear energy, consistent with their respective international commitments." Article 39 further articulates the countries' understanding regarding nuclear technology by stating, "Energy security constitutes a vital and strategic issue for producing and consuming countries alike. It is consistent with the common interest of the two sides to establish an international energy order, which is fair, equitable, secure and stable, and to the benefit of the entire international community...In this context, international civilian nuclear cooperation should be advanced through innovative and forward-looking approaches, while safeguarding the effectiveness of international non-proliferation principles." In addition, Article 40 says that, "Both countries are committed to non-proliferation objectives and agree to expand their dialogue on related issues in bilateral and international fora." During the joint press interaction, both PM Singh and President Hu broached the civilian nuclear technology subject cautiously. PM Singh's only relevant statement was that, "Cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear technology will be promoted." President Hu was even cagier, preferring to bury the nuclear issue within related issues when he said, "We have decided to further expand and deepen our cooperation in economics, trade, finance, information, energy, science, technology, NEW DELHI 00007942 003.2 OF 003 agriculture, human resources development, education and other fields." ¶4. (C) COMMENT: We will provide an in-depth readout regarding the Hu visit after consultations with think-tankers, journalists, and our diplomatic contacts next week. However, at this point the Hu's visit can be summarized as nibbling on the edges of the big issues--including borders and China's support for Pakistan--in order to maintain the momentum initially gained from the 2005 visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. The two sides concentrated on relatively small economic agreements mixed in with grand economic aspirations. After the Chinese Ambassador soured the mood by reiterating Chinese claims to Arunachal Pradesh, perhaps that was the most either side could realistically achieve. END COMMENT MULFORD