BOUCHER AND MENON TOUR D'HORIZON: PAKISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 007767 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK NP, CH, CE, BG, AF, KN, IN SUBJECT: BOUCHER AND MENON TOUR D'HORIZON: PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, NEPAL, SRI LANKA AND NORTH KOREA NEW DELHI 00007767 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Foreign Secretary Menon told Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher SIPDIS and Ambassador Mulford in a Nov. 10 meeting that countering Pakistani mistrust about India's role in Baluchistan will be difficult. India is concerned about the growing sophistication and reach of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its links to terror in India and elsewhere, including Iraq. India would like the U.S. to weigh in on the need for verification of ground positions on the Siachen Glacier, influencing Pakistan to make a deal. On Kashmir, India is frustrated by a possible deal that is still stuck. Concerns over terrorism in Bangladesh are rising. The jury is still out on Nepal, but India is stepping in to help the government increase its still limited capacity. While not contemplating direct involvement in the Sri Lankan peace talks, India will continue hosting high level delegations aimed at improving governance in Colombo and educating Sri Lankan leaders about federalist principles. The "what-if" question of North Korea's nuclear program is plaguing India, though it has no real solutions to offer. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- COMPOSITE DIALOGUE AND COUNTERTERRORISM MECHANISM -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In a Nov. 10 meeting with visiting Assistant Secretary Boucher and Ambassador Mulford, Boucher asked SIPDIS Foreign Secretary Menon what he expected in the upcoming Composite Dialogue talks. Menon replied that there was much to discuss on counterterrorism and that the Indian Government had "some hard evidence" to present to the Pakistanis. "We will ask for some specific things," Menon said, and will look for "specific responses." -------------- BALUCHISTAN AND LASHKAR-E-TAIBA -------------- ¶3. (C) Stability in Afghanistan is directly affected by Pakistan, particularly because of cross border violence in Baluchistan province, said Menon. "The problem," he said, "has to do with where the threat in Afghanistan is coming from," and noted that real reconciliation in Baluchistan will be hard in the long term. Boucher assured Menon that Musharraf considers the Taliban a threat to Pakistan, and that he is determined to deal with the problem. When Boucher suggested that India use the upcoming composite dialogue to talk to Pakistan about their charges that the Indians are using their presence in Afghanistan to support Baluch rebels, Menon replied that India has been ready to talk to Pakistan about the issue, but has received no response. "We have been telling Musharraf we are ready to sit and talk with him and President Karzai," said Menon, noting that he himself had tried three times in the last six months to initiate talks NEW DELHI 00007767 002.2 OF 005 and his predecessor Shyam Saran tried as well. Calling it a "conversation that needs to happen," Menon assured Boucher that India is prepared to be transparent and to have this conversation at any level, any time. ¶4. (C) Turning to counter-terrorism, Boucher stated that Lashkar-e-Taiba has morphed into a more diversified organization no longer concentrated only on Kashmir. Menon concurred, adding that Lashkar-e-Taiba's increasing profile as a supposed social service organization and its expanding terrorist agenda is worrying to India. Unable to prove beyond the shadow of a doubt links between groups like this and terrorism, India has made suggestions, rather than demands, that Pakistan be proactive in the investigations of these groups, Menon said. When Boucher offered that Pakistan had taken the step of arresting Lashkar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed, Menon countered that they had merely put him under house arrest in his own guesthouse. Boucher noted that Hafiz Saeed's Jammat-ud-Dawa is still not on the United Nations terrorist list, having been blocked by China, who will not agree to it until the East Turkistan Movement is added. Boucher also noted that Musharraf says that he has shut down the camps in Kashmir, and Menon replied that that that was not necessarily effective because the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence always funnels their support to one group anyway. They think that it is "easier to manage the jihad" this way. -------------- SIACHEN GLACIER -------------- ¶5. (C) Menon expressed frustration that no progress has been made on Siachen glacier. "The problem is that we thought we had a deal," he emphasized, noting that no follow-through had taken place after defense secretary talks. "It's a question of swallowing the fact that we have to say where we are," remarked Menon, referring to the current Indian positions on the ridge line above the Siachen glacier. When asked if India would try again next week (at Foreign Secretary level talks with Pakistan),Menon said they would, adding that it would be very helpful if the U.S. voiced its stance on the subject. "It makes it easier on Pakistan if someone else says it, even if it's 80 percent what we said and 20 percent what they said," opined Menon. Boucher queried whether a visit by Prime Minister Singh to Pakistan would contribute to a solution, to which Menon responded that India would never make resolution of Siachen or Sir Creek a condition for a visit. We would need the right atmosphere and "atmosphere is a code word for terrorism" not occurring, Menon said. He commented that Siachen doesn't cost either side as much as it did ten years ago. He called Siachen more of a "political problem," reiterating that it's hard to go back to the negotiating table when a deal has already been made, but was not adhered to. NEW DELHI 00007767 003.2 OF 005 -------------- KASHMIR -------------- ¶6. (C) Boucher noted that India and Pakistan seem to be making progress in Kashmir, to which Menon responded that rhetoric on both sides is similar. The two issues to address, Menon emphasized, are how to make an agreement stick and whether or not Pakistan will implement it. Boucher offered that, if the line of control becomes a border, India will have what it always wanted. Menon disagreed, stating that India's position remains what was defined in a parliamentary resolution: it claims all of Kashmir. However, Menon added that Kashmir should be dealt with incrementally, through confidence-building measures, increased trade and demilitarization, as a matter of "welfare." "If you treat it as an issue of sovereignty, it will go nowhere," he underlined, adding "it is important to build a peace and not just make a grand gesture of words and sign a piece of paper." When asked if the Indian Government would extend an invitation to Pakistan's Foreign Minister Kasuri when he visits India for the wedding of the daughter of Mani Shankar Aiyer, Menon responded that it has not been decided, but that they would "see what happens with Riaz (Khan) first" in the composite dialogue talks. -------------- BANGLADESH -------------- ¶7. (C) Menon raised Bangladesh, to which Boucher said that solving the election commission problem is vital, pointing out that election-related violence could spin out of control. Menon responded that the threat of violence is a part of the political process in many countries of the region, noting the success such threats have had in Nepal for the Maoists. Menon told Boucher that India's level of concern over Bangladesh as a breeding ground for terrorists is quite high, noting that the deterioration of law and order is exacerbating the situation and making it easier for terror to take root. "Bangladesh's president seems to understand (the gravity of the situation),but throws his hands up and says he can do nothing," Menon remarked. India has informed Bangladesh that now is the time to crack down on terror, but has not gone as far as saying it will work with Dhaka to this end, according to Menon. -------------- NEPAL -------------- ¶8. (C) When Boucher asked if the recent agreement meant Nepal had avoided the worst or if worse was yet to come, Menon replied that it is hard to say at this point. "It seems the Maoists have crossed a great divide," he said, "and it will be hard for them to go back" to fighting. Still, he NEW DELHI 00007767 004.2 OF 005 stated it was certain the Maoists would violate the agreement, adding that, "we will have to see what we can do to limit their cheating." The ten million rupee assistance program India has given Nepal is to strengthen the government's capacity to function properly, said Menon. When Boucher described the limited nature of U.S.-Nepal military cooperation, Menon remarked that Koirala and his government are "not very brave people." When queried on a possible upcoming visit to India by Prachanda, Menon replied that the Indian Government is not sure if he will come, especially given the short time frame he has in which to confine his army in cantonments. Regarding the United Nations' role, Menon concurred with Boucher that the UN monitoring mission needs to be set up very quickly. -------------- SRI LANKA -------------- ¶9. (C) Little was achieved in the Geneva peace talks on Sri Lanka, Boucher told Menon, noting that although Sri Lankan officials had been told to come ready to negotiate, they were not prepared. Menon replied that, fundamentally, the problem is that, "both sides think they can win militarily -- and both sides are wrong." Boucher underlined the importance of talking about political settlement issues. "Norway thinks that there is a basis for future rounds of talks," he said, despite the lack of progress in Geneva, adding that there are ways India could support the talks. "Norway always says there is a basis for discussion, and there always is," replied Menon, asking rhetorically: "but can you solve this structurally? Is there a realistic expectation of getting through this process?" Both agreed that fair treatment of the Tamils would help to ease their grievances and reduce the need to fight, with Boucher noting that the government would have more Tamils on its side if they were treated fairly. Menon said Indian Foreign Minister Mukherjee would visit Sri Lanka soon, and that President Rajapakse is coming to India as well. Many Sri Lankan political party leaders had also visited India recently. -------------- NORTH KOREA -------------- ¶10. (C) Responding to Menon's questioning on North Korea, Boucher explained that Under Secretary Burns has been working intensively on the challenge, which for now is on a diplomatic path. He noted that China pressured North Korea to return to Six-Party Talks, but must continue to exert persistent pressure. Menon asked what would happen if the Six Parties are unable to stop North Korea from pursuing its nuclear program. Boucher responded that, if we do not succeed diplomatically, the situation will worsen. -------------- NEW DELHI 00007767 005.2 OF 005 CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL AND VISAS -------------- ¶11. (C) Ambassador Mulford informed Menon that President Bush and Senator Reid had expressed a desire for Senate action on the civil nuclear deal during the lame-duck session, and that he hoped it would be passed this year. He also reported that the Embassy had succeeded in eliminating the visa backlog and that, with continued support from the Department, we could prevent future backlogs. -------------- COMMENT: BUILDING INDIA'S TRUST -------------- ¶12. (C) Menon conveyed a willingness to be transparent with Islamabad about India's presence in Afghanistan, but stressed that approaches to Kashmir have to be incremental. Next week's foreign secretary talks will focus on terrorism, but neither side is signaling the likelihood of a breakthrough. On Nepal, India says it is ready to help the government build capacity, and prepared for Maoist violations of the recent agreement. On terrorism concerns, India wants the U.S. to pressure Bangladesh and act as an interlocutor with Pakistan, but its greatest gesture remains its willingness to keep talking to Pakistan, despite the ongoing terrorist threat in the Indian heartland. The fact that India is exchanging high level meetings with Sri Lanka is a good sign, but there was no indication that India will become deeply involved in future peace talks with the parties there. Ultimately, India's increasing requests for U.S. assistance in dealing with its neighbors represent a positive step forward in our bilateral relationship. They demonstrate a growing trust among Indian officials that the U.S. can be a positive force in South Asia on issues of crucial concern to Indian interests. END COMMENT. ¶13. (U) Assistant Secretary Boucher cleared this message. MULFORD