INDIAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR VIEWS DELAY IN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007584 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PARM TSPL ETTC ENRG KNNP IN SUBJECT: INDIAN NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR VIEWS DELAY IN CIVIL-NUCLEAR LEGISLATION AS PART OF DEMOCRATIC PROCESS Classified By: Ambassador David C. Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (S) Summary: Ambassador met with National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan on November 3rd to discuss the status of the US-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative as well as terrorism and Indo-Pakistan relations (Septel). Narayanan downplayed concern about Indian public reaction if the legislation is not passed this year. He said the Prime Minister understands US democratic processes and views the agreement as a long-term goal. As long as both India and the US maintain a positive public message -- that the deal is part of an ongoing process of expanding US-India relations and enjoys bipartisan support -- it will not have a negative effect on the Congress-led government or the Prime Minister's ability to manage the US-India bilateral relationship. End Summary. ¶2. (S) National Security Advisor Narayanan echoed Foreign Secretary Saran's comments that it would be prudent to SIPDIS consider how we deal together with the situation if the Civilian Nuclear Cooperation legislation does not pass this year. He said we might have needed an "exit strategy" if the Senate had voted against the bill or it had been rejected outright by the US Congress -- because then there would have been a strong negative reaction in India. Since the US intention is still to pass the bill when a new Congress convenes and bipartisan support exists, there will be limited political damage in India from some delay, providing that it is packaged carefully. He said criticism of the deal from members of parliament had diminished greatly since the Prime Minister's August statement in Parliament. He warned, however, that if the US Congress drags out the deliberations for many more months, the public will criticize the Prime Minister for wasting his time when there are many other initiatives he has to focus on. ¶3. (S) Narayanan said further that both India and the US should accentuate the positive about the agreement -- the good news is it has not been rejected, the bad news is it hasn't been voted on. The best option is to treat the bill as an initiative that has not had enough time to be completed. Narayanan's aid, Venkatesh Verma, who directs the NSA's office, related suggestions for a coordinated public message between India and the US. He said we should reflect that this is an ongoing process, that there is bipartisan support for the bill, and the bill will be picked up by the new Congress. He cautioned against spreading the impression that the next Congress could be against it, saying instead that we should highlight that it still has bipartisan support. If the delay is seen as a purely a procedural issue, the Indian government will be able to handle it. Narayanan added that we should not allow those in India with an anti-American slant to capitalize on the issue by focusing on the negative. Ambassador reiterated that there is strong support for India in the US Congress, and that the legislation will continue to attract bipartisan support. ¶4. (S) Comment: Faced with the possibility of Senate inaction, the Indian government appears to be casting the civilian nuclear issue as a long-term agenda, rather than a short-term failure. This strategy mirrors a common element of the UPA's domestic governing style -- setting out large-scale initiatives but taking time to implement them. Because the Indian public largely sees the agreement as a harbinger of American support for India, US intention -- NEW DELHI 00007584 002 OF 002 which the public largely gauges through the level of support and the kinds of conditions placed on the bill -- will be more important than whether it takes a few more months to pass the bill through Congress. Nonetheless, we will need a strategy to keep the Indian public focused on positive aspects of our relationship. MULFORD