INDIA,S CENTRAL ASIA EXPERTS HIGHLIGHT CHALLENGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 007289 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ENRG KISL IN SUBJECT: INDIA,S CENTRAL ASIA EXPERTS HIGHLIGHT CHALLENGES TO REGIONAL COOPERATION NEW DELHI 00007289 001.2 OF 004 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Leading Indian experts on Central Asia, Russia and China offered India,s perspective on South and Central Asia regional cooperation at a roundtable with PolOffs October 19. Participants identified Afghan security and ensuring a secular Central Asia as India,s priorities in the region. Although the prospect of cheap energy supply is enticing, difficult barriers -- described primarily as an intransigent Pakistan and an unstable Afghanistan -- have prevented the Government of India (GOI) from concretely moving forward on regional economic and energy integration projects. Despite being a vital player in the region, India has not taken an active lead, allowing Russia and China to maintain and gain influence in the region respectively. END SUMMARY. A LATE START -------------- ¶2. (C) PolCouns invited six eminent Indian scholars to discuss the GOI,s role in Central Asia and regional integration prospects at a roundtable October 19. Dr. Srikanth Kondapalli, a China expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University, commented that India has ancient historical and cultural ties to Central Asia and would be a natural leader in stabilizing the region and developing economies. However, India,s involvement has been overshadowed by Russia and China,s influence. &India was late to wake up,8 he stated. FOCUS ON AFGHANISTAN -------------- ¶3. (C) India,s foreign policy in Central Asia has largely focused on Afghanistan, the experts agreed, and noted the GOI is hosting a Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan in New Delhi November 18-19. This conference is a good example of the type of involvement the GOI should initiate to advance its goal of regional cooperation. The roundtable specialists agreed that India,s interest in regional cooperation is more geopolitical than economic. They pointed out that India can tap into global energy resources rather than jumping over the tall hurdles of Afghanistan and Pakistan for energy. They also added that, for India, economic integration into Central Asia is a daunting task, as it has yet to establish strong economic linkages within South Asia. AFGHANISTAN AND PAKISTAN: TALL BARRIERS -------------- ¶4. (C) Two prominent barriers to regional cooperation are Afghanistan and Pakistan, the roundtable participants unanimously argued. These two barriers have prevented the GOI from heavily investing in regional infrastructure. Until security in Afghanistan stabilizes, it will be difficult to run energy from Central Asia to India. Participants feared NEW DELHI 00007289 002.2 OF 004 the United States may pull out of Afghanistan and &India may have to put boots on the ground.8 PolOff allayed the notion, saying that the U.S. remains committed to a free, prosperous and stable Afghanistan and has strengthened its presence there. ¶5. (C) Participants pointed out that even if the United States and its allies are able to maintain security in Afghanistan, India,s contentious relationship with Pakistan remains an obstruction. They do not anticipate that Pakistan will be overly cooperative and allow pipelines and gridlines to reach the Indian market, or end its policy of denying ground transit across Pakistan for Indian goods headed to Central Asia. Dr. Gulshan Sachdeva, Director of the Europe Area Studies Program encouraged the United States to influence Pakistan to play a positive role in facilitating South-Central integration. Only with political intervention will the energy and trade corridors reach India, he believed. IRAN OR CHINA INSTEAD? -------------- ¶6. (C) Noting some have suggested running an energy corridor from Central Asia through China to India, Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, pointed out that challenges such as geography, altitude, border disputes and financing would need be overcome in order to make this route feasible. At this point, the international financial institutions have not expressed interest in such a project. An alternate energy route linking India with Iran is the next most viable option for India, he felt, although he admitted this was not an attractive option at this time. NOT THE NEW GREAT GAME' -------------- ¶7. (C) Professor Nirmala Joshi, Director of the India-Central Asia Foundation, explained Russia maintains strong linguistic, political, historical and economic ties to the region. She also noted that China has quickly and decisively poured money into Central Asia with little to no strings attached, using economic assistance to open doors into the region. Participants pointed out that Russia and China will have differing interests in the region and the conflict will play itself out in the field of Central Asia. ¶8. (C) Despite the many players in Central Asia, this is not an era of a new great game, they agreed. They cautioned that the United States should not exclude Russia as a partner in the region. Some roundtable participants went as far as suggesting a U.S.- Russia- India alliance, and Joshi suggested that perhaps the quickest way for the U.S. to have influence in Central Asia would be to partner with Russia, rather than India. The goals of economic development and regional stability are common goals for all and there is room for everyone. Indian interlocutors believe that both Russia NEW DELHI 00007289 003.2 OF 004 and China understand that each country has a hard and fast presence in the region and neither is going away anytime soon. Russia does not feel threatened by an Indian presence in the region because they do not have a common border, as is the case with China, Joshi said. DEMOCRACY IN CENTRAL ASIA: PROCEED WITH CAUTION -------------- --- ¶9. (C) The participants all agreed it is in the GOI,s best interest to secure a stable and secular Central Asia. Religious extremism and the influence of terrorist forces from Afghanistan and Pakistan seeping into Central Asia is a concern for India. India has long recognized Afghanistan as an "extended neighbor" and realizes the need to stabilize the state. One area where the GOI could provide assistance is in securing the Tajik-Afghan border. ¶10. (C) President of the India-Central Asia Foundation K. Santhanam said that, as the region,s most developed democracy, India could have a role in strengthening democratic principles and institutions. However, given the Central Asian governments, adverse reaction to the word democracy,, the GOI has been reluctant to engage in civil society projects. India has shied away from democracy, human rights and civil society related projects because it fears souring relationships with Central Asian governments. ¶11. (C) Interlocutors reasoned that for India, maintaining stability, even if it means upholding the status quo of authoritarian regimes, overrides democracy building. The Central Asian governments are nascent democracies and need time to establish themselves, they argued, adding democracy should grow from within and take its own course adapting to the specificities of the country,s culture and history. COMMENT: MORE CAUTIOUS THAN WE WOULD LIKE -------------- ¶12. (C) COMMENT: This roundtable was another in a series of steps Post is taking to engage India on South-Central integration. While participants were not GOI officials, they are all influential in their own right, not only in India but through participation in numerous seminars throughout the region. While some of the opinions expressed during the roundtable were personal (such as suggesting the U.S. be more understanding of India's need for a trade route through Iran),for the most part these experts expressed what India really thinks about the prospects for Central Asia. Essentially, India is looking for the U.S. to play a leading role in bringing integration to the region, but will only cooperate with us insofar as the U.S. is not seen upsetting the delicate balance that includes roles for Russia and China, and is not imposing democracy on governments who are not ready/willing to embrace the term. While India is eager to have greater trade with Central Asia -- and, in particular, have access to Central Asia's vast energy resources -- observers in New Delhi are of the view that NEW DELHI 00007289 004.2 OF 004 short-term prospects are dim. The U.S. can help, they suggest, by leading successful reconstruction/stability efforts in Afghanistan, and by persuading Pakistan to be a more cooperative neighbor. The GOI seeks U.S. participation in regional cooperation and would welcome concrete projects where the GOI can be a partner, albeit a partner who remains "unaligned." India has realized it was slow to jump on the post-Cold War Central Asia bandwagon, but is looking to expand its influence in the region. Given our nearly identical interests in the region, we must continue to seek ways to engage India on regional integration. END COMMENT. PYATT