MAOISTS UNWILLING TO SHARE, ACCORDING TO INDIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 007155

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/11/2026
TAGS: PREL PARM PBTS KISL NP IN
SUBJECT: MAOISTS UNWILLING TO SHARE, ACCORDING TO INDIAN
THINK-TANK

NEW DELHI 00007155 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Dr. Ajai Sahni of the Institute for
Conflict Management, warned that current peace talks will
result in Nepal being handed over to the Maoists, who have no
intention of sharing power. The Maoists are tactical
negotiators who should not be underestimated, said Sahni.
Describing the Maoists as having a coherent military command,
he noted that India and the U.S. should study their warfare
tactics, the same tactics are in fact being used by Islamic
extremists. U.S. or Indian "boots on the ground" in Nepal
would be a mistake according to Sahni, who says the Nepalese
must take the lead in reclaiming the territory the Maoists
now control. END SUMMARY.

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Handing the State Over to Maoists?
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2. (C) "We're effectively handing the state over to the
Maoists," said Dr. Ajai Sahni, a terrorism and conflict
resolution expert, at an October 10 meeting with SCA Director
for India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, the Maldives and Bhutan Marcia
Bernicat, referring to the international community's
willingness to let the Maoists participate in the Nepalese
government. He warned that Maoists are not willing to share
power, even though they prefer to enter the formal political
process through non-violent means. He opined that the
Maoists appeal to the dispossessed, having effectively moved
into the vacuum left by an unpopular King and ineffective
government. While the international community and GON get
"caught up in the detail of a complex peace process," the
Maoists are left to build support at the grassroots level, he
said. The Maoists are "tactical" rather than "good faith"
negotiators who will abandon the process once they have power.

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Terror Wins Through Our Surrender
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3. (C) "Terror wins through our surrender, our failure of
will," Sahni concluded, predicting that a slow decline in the
peace process will be marked by escalating violence and
sporadic demonstrations, but noted that this time protests
will be against the democratic government as opposed to those
against the King last April. "At some stage, someone will
give up," he said, noting that violence is intended by the
Maoists to further their objectives and that their military
commands are coherent and underestimated by the GOI and U.S.
The NNA is still popular, but is demoralized and able only to
fight for and hold Kathmandu, not the entire country,
according to Sahni.

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Studying Maoism
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4. (C) Sahni believes it is necessary to study Maoism to
understand the Maoists' strategy of warfare, and intimated
that Islamic extremists have also successfully adopted the
tactics of Mao. "A Maoist doesn't separate fighting from
politics," he said. He feels that the conflict in Nepal
could be overcome if there were a coherent strategy of
regaining control "in the field," but says that right now
anti-Maoist forces are lacking in strength, presence and
effectiveness. "The worst thing possible would be Indian or
U.S. boots on the ground, however," he said, noting that this
ground must be gained by the Nepalese themselves.

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COMMENT
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5. (C) We find that Sahni's analysis is a minority report
among Nepal-watchers in India. While most are pushing for
the peace process to continue, Sahni believes that such
processes "resolve only one or two problems, but ultimately
do nothing other than demonstrate that terrorism works."
While many in India believe that the Maoists can be trusted
to take part in a Nepalese democracy, Sahni articulated an
"all or nothing" end-game in Nepal's future that reminds us,
at a minimum, not to underestimate the Maoists. END COMMENT.
PYATT