INDIA ACCUSES PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE OF DIRECTING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006841 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PK IN SUBJECT: INDIA ACCUSES PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE OF DIRECTING MUMBAI ATTACKS REF: MUMBAI 1653 NEW DELHI 00006841 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (S) Summary: India's new Foreign Secretary, Shiv Shankar Menon, struck out at Pakistan on October 1 in his first few hours in office, backing Mumbai police claims to have hard evidence that Pakistani intelligence was behind the July 11 bombings in Mumbai. Menon further tied the success of the newly announced Indo-Pak anti-terror "joint mechanism" to Pakistan's willingness to act on these allegations. However, police officials, in previous discussions with Consulate Mumbai, admit that although they believe there is clear Pakistani hand in the attacks, their evidence for backing these accusations is mostly derived from interrogations and mobile-to-mobile phone taps. Nonetheless, press sources say that National Security Advisor NK Narayanan -- who likely oversaw the Mumbai investigation behind the scenes -- is encouraging Menon to take a harsh stance against Pakistan. They say that any clear proof that Lashkar-e-Taiba is behind the blasts will convince the Indian public that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) orchestrated the attack. End Summary. Tough Stance on National Security -------------- ¶2. (S) Hindustan Times editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri told PolOff on October 3 that while there was little doubt that the evidence presented thus far linking ISI to the Mumbai attacks "wouldn't stand up in court," there was strong evidence linking the attacks to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Pakistan-based training camps. He said National Security Advisor NK Narayanan -- himself a former police official -- privately took a significant role in ensuring that the Mumbai investigations were comprehensive and thorough. He said Narayanan was putting intense pressure on Prime Minister Singh and Foreign Secretary Menon to remain tough on Pakistan, and trying to demonstrate to the Indian public that the peace process with Pakistan was irrelevant. He said Prime Minister Singh would need some kind of tough action from Pakistan against Lashkar-e-Taiba/Jamat-ud Dawa, including arresting those implicated in the attacks, although there was an internal recognition in India that extradition of these terror suspects would be very difficult for Pakistan. He said Congress Party MP's have become very concerned that the party looks weak on national security issues and that this is likely to overshadow their interest to reach out to Muslim voters by taking a softer stance toward Pakistan. Without an unusually strong action on Pakistan's part to demonstrate cooperation, he said Prime Minister Singh would likely need until spring of 2007 to make any significant concessions in negotiations with Pakistan, including the Siachen and Sir Creek issues. Little Evidence Thus Far -------------- ¶3. (S) Although Indian officials may be closely guarding their strongest evidence of Pakistani government involvement in the Mumbai blasts, Mumbai police chief A N Roy said publicly that India's most obvious source of evidence is through Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) member Azam Cheema, who provided training to those who were involved in the attacks. NEW DELHI 00006841 002.2 OF 002 Roy said Cheema lives openly in Bahawlpur, Pakistan, and "travels to Islamabad frequently to meet with VIPs." Similarly, press reports say police learned through interrogations that ISI passed large sums of money through Hawala channels to the Mumbai attackers. (Note: See reftel for details of Roy's conversation with Amconsul Mumbai on the quality of evidence. End Note.) Testing the Anti-Terror Joint Mechanism -------------- ¶4. (S) Comment: While some press reports and editorials have pointed out that there is little direct evidence of ISI involvement, Indian officials and the public largely seem to believe that Pakistan is largely responsible for the attacks. At the least, Indian officials frequently maintain that Pakistan's unwillingness to take any action against Lashkar-e-Taiba's leaders, operatives, or sprawling infrastructure are alone enough proof that Pakistan is complicit in the group's attacks in India. In the wake of these reports, Foreign Secretary Menon and Prime Minister Singh will need strong action from Pakistan to demonstrate that the anti-terror "joint mechanism" represents a significant concession on Pakistan's part and a real desire to take action against Lashkar-e-Taiba. The Ambassador will meet Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon on October 4; Embassy will report on what the GOI sees as the future of the joint mechanism. MULFORD