INDIA ACCUSES PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE OF DIRECTING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006841

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PK IN
SUBJECT: INDIA ACCUSES PAKISTANI INTELLIGENCE OF DIRECTING
MUMBAI ATTACKS

REF: MUMBAI 1653

NEW DELHI 00006841 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (S) Summary: India's new Foreign Secretary, Shiv Shankar
Menon, struck out at Pakistan on October 1 in his first few
hours in office, backing Mumbai police claims to have hard
evidence that Pakistani intelligence was behind the July 11
bombings in Mumbai. Menon further tied the success of the
newly announced Indo-Pak anti-terror "joint mechanism" to
Pakistan's willingness to act on these allegations. However,
police officials, in previous discussions with Consulate
Mumbai, admit that although they believe there is clear
Pakistani hand in the attacks, their evidence for backing
these accusations is mostly derived from interrogations and
mobile-to-mobile phone taps. Nonetheless, press sources say
that National Security Advisor NK Narayanan -- who likely
oversaw the Mumbai investigation behind the scenes -- is
encouraging Menon to take a harsh stance against Pakistan.
They say that any clear proof that Lashkar-e-Taiba is behind
the blasts will convince the Indian public that Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) orchestrated
the attack. End Summary.

Tough Stance on National Security
--------------


2. (S) Hindustan Times editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri told
PolOff on October 3 that while there was little doubt that
the evidence presented thus far linking ISI to the Mumbai
attacks "wouldn't stand up in court," there was strong
evidence linking the attacks to Lashkar-e-Taiba and
Pakistan-based training camps. He said National Security
Advisor NK Narayanan -- himself a former police official --
privately took a significant role in ensuring that the Mumbai
investigations were comprehensive and thorough. He said
Narayanan was putting intense pressure on Prime Minister
Singh and Foreign Secretary Menon to remain tough on
Pakistan, and trying to demonstrate to the Indian public that
the peace process with Pakistan was irrelevant. He said
Prime Minister Singh would need some kind of tough action
from Pakistan against Lashkar-e-Taiba/Jamat-ud Dawa,
including arresting those implicated in the attacks, although
there was an internal recognition in India that extradition
of these terror suspects would be very difficult for
Pakistan. He said Congress Party MP's have become very
concerned that the party looks weak on national security
issues and that this is likely to overshadow their interest
to reach out to Muslim voters by taking a softer stance
toward Pakistan. Without an unusually strong action on
Pakistan's part to demonstrate cooperation, he said Prime
Minister Singh would likely need until spring of 2007 to make
any significant concessions in negotiations with Pakistan,
including the Siachen and Sir Creek issues.

Little Evidence Thus Far
--------------


3. (S) Although Indian officials may be closely guarding
their strongest evidence of Pakistani government involvement
in the Mumbai blasts, Mumbai police chief A N Roy said
publicly that India's most obvious source of evidence is
through Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) member Azam Cheema, who
provided training to those who were involved in the attacks.

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Roy said Cheema lives openly in Bahawlpur, Pakistan, and
"travels to Islamabad frequently to meet with VIPs."
Similarly, press reports say police learned through
interrogations that ISI passed large sums of money through
Hawala channels to the Mumbai attackers. (Note: See reftel
for details of Roy's conversation with Amconsul Mumbai on the
quality of evidence. End Note.)

Testing the Anti-Terror Joint Mechanism
--------------


4. (S) Comment: While some press reports and editorials have
pointed out that there is little direct evidence of ISI
involvement, Indian officials and the public largely seem to
believe that Pakistan is largely responsible for the attacks.
At the least, Indian officials frequently maintain that
Pakistan's unwillingness to take any action against
Lashkar-e-Taiba's leaders, operatives, or sprawling
infrastructure are alone enough proof that Pakistan is
complicit in the group's attacks in India. In the wake of
these reports, Foreign Secretary Menon and Prime Minister
Singh will need strong action from Pakistan to demonstrate
that the anti-terror "joint mechanism" represents a
significant concession on Pakistan's part and a real desire
to take action against Lashkar-e-Taiba. The Ambassador will
meet Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon on October 4;
Embassy will report on what the GOI sees as the future of the
joint mechanism.
MULFORD