"PRAGMATIC" MAOISTS GETTING CLOSER TO KOIRALA?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006766 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/26/2026 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS KDEM PK NE IN SUBJECT: "PRAGMATIC" MAOISTS GETTING CLOSER TO KOIRALA? Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Nepalese Maoists are getting closer to PM Koirala, according to Sudhindra Bhadoria of the left-leaning New Delhi-based South Asian Forum for People's Inititatives, because they are pragmatists who are not "hard and fast" on the issues of arms and the role of the monarchy in the future of Nepal. Bhadoria said the Maoists are solid and unlikely to split into different factions, and that they have the ability to blend into the mainstream and be absorbed into a future Nepalese political system. The GOI should not intervene in Nepal, he said, and the Maoists and Naxalites are not working together in his opinion. Bhadoria appears to us to be a Maoist sympathizer who is happy to help the Maoists soften their image in the eyes of the Indian government. END SUMMARY. -------------- Meeting Koirala in the Middle? -------------- ¶2. (C) Sudhindra Bhadoria, a pro-democracy think-tanker of the South Asian Forum for People's Initiatives, recently met with Maoists in Kathmandu. He told PolOff on Sep. 22 that the Maoists are drawing closer to elderly PM Koirala, whom he described as not being "a great leader like his brother," but rather hoping to be a "history maker." While PM Koirala thinks the monarch should be given a symbolic role in the government, the Maoists want a federal system with no monarchy. But "they are not hard and fast on these issues," he said, opining that the "pragmatic" Maoists know they can't continue with the struggle to retain their weapons. -------------- Maoists in the Mainstream -------------- ¶3. (C) Bhadoria said the Maoists are completely unified and in no danger of splitting into factions. He said they must be kept in the dialogue and discussion on the future of Nepal, and that they need to be absorbed into the political system. He noted that "Maoists interact with all kinds of people to gather strength," referring in part to their interaction in his organization for democracy. "They can come into the mainstream," according to Bhadoria, who noted that the Maoists had democratically elected their own leaders. -------------- The GOI and the Naxalites -------------- ¶4. (C) Bhadoria said that anarchy cannot be ruled out in the next 6-8 months, but felt that the GOI would not intervene should the situation deteriorate. If they did, "that would become a point of hate," he said, stating that the GOI "should not look like 'Big Brother.'" ¶5. (C) Concerning a potential Maoist-Naxalite link, Bhadoria was of the opinion that the two groups are not currently working together, noting that the Naxalites don't want the Maoists to become part of the government through democratic means. The two groups have different strategies and tactics, he said, noting that the ends, not just the means, matter for the Nepalese Maoists, while the Naxalites are interested in disrupting the political system rather than taking part in it. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Mr. Bhadoria's explanations sound like those of other Maoist apologists we have met in Delhi, all of whom seem intent on portraying the Maoists as moderates. However his predictions that the GOI won't intervene even if the NEW DELHI 00006766 002 OF 002 situation in Nepal deteriorates is an assessment shared even by many sober observers of the India-Nepal relationship. MULFORD