INDIAN PM FACING OUTCRY AGAINST ANTI-TERROR PLAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 006737

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN PM FACING OUTCRY AGAINST ANTI-TERROR PLAN
WITH PAKISTAN

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Classified By: DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (S) Summary: Prime Minister Singh has come under fire in
India for his agreement with Pakistan to combat terrorism
jointly. Opposition BJP leaders and hardliners in PM Singh's
own party and India's security establishment have unleashed a
barrage of statements criticizing the agreement. They say PM
Singh has changed fundamentally India's principled stance by
saying that Pakistan too suffers from terrorism. Musharraf's
book launch has also stirred the ghosts of Indo-Pak
hostility. In response, Indian officials have downplayed the
significance of the agreement, saying that they do not expect
much from the joint mechanism, at least initially. They say
they need to begin working with Pakistan at a basic level,
giving the country the benefit of the doubt, but they will
also continue putting pressure on Pakistan as a source of
terrorism. End Summary.

Criticism of Joint Mechanism
--------------


2. (S) Hard News editor Sanjay Kapoor, who was a member of
the press corps on PM Singh's trip to Havana, told PolOff on
September 22nd that hardliners in the Indian delegation to
Havana -- including National Security Advisor NK Narayanan --
privately remained skeptical of the agreement with Musharraf
even while they announced it to the Indian press. He said PM
Singh would have an uphill battle selling the agreement to
members of his own party as a sincere effort on President
Musharraf's part.


3. (S) One week after the agreement, hardline opposition has
emerged in full force in the Indian press from both
opposition BJP leaders and members of India's security
services. Researchers from both the Institute for Conflict
Management and the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis
say that the greatest criticism of the joint mechanism was
that the so called "paradigm shift" away from India's
longstanding stance against Pakistani terrorists would put
the nation in jeopardy. There was significant concern that,
by stating that Pakistan is also a victim of terrorism, the
Prime Minister was helping confirm Pakistan's rhetoric about
not being responsible for terrorism. Meanwhile, BJP leaders
accuse the Prime Minister of "selling out the country" by
agreeing to share information with Pakistan about terrorism.
The headline grabbing obsession here with President
Musharraf's new book -- in which the Indian press says he
blames India for the Kargil conflict -- has further soured
the mood.

Details Still Being Negotiated -- Kashmir Excluded?
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4. (S) While few details have emerged publicly about the
modalities of the joint mechanism, both Kapoor and Congress
Party operative Ashok Bhan said the Prime Minister planned to
present the joint mechanism within the party as a sincere
effort on Musharraf's part to end terrorist attacks in major
Indian cities. They said the mechanism was supposed to
mirror the joint action taken by India and Pakistan to combat
Sikh extremists in Punjab in the 1980's -- when Pakistan
seemingly reversed its support to insurgents and even turned
some over to the Indian government. If Punjab could be
stabilized, so too could Kashmir, the thinking goes.

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(Comment: Musharraf's statements that Pakistan will not turn
anyone over to India will make this argument difficult. End
Comment.) Both Kapoor and Bhan also commented privately that
Musharraf kept information sharing about Jammu and Kashmir
out of the Joint Mechanism. They said the agreement covers
only those groups that are acting outside of Jammu and
Kashmir.


5. (S) Ministry of External Affairs Press Secretary Navtej
Sarna told PolCouns on September 26th that few details about
the joint mechanism had been worked out yet with Pakistan,
including who would be involved in the meetings and how often
officials would meet. He said he was countering negative
press about the agreement by saying that there is no let up
on India's stance on Pakistan, "but if we can counter
terrorism jointly in both Pakistan and India, we should."
Nonetheless, there would naturally be cynicism about how the
two intel agencies would work together, and the joint
mechanism would have to start at a basic level.

Failed Ceasfire Fueling Skepticism
--------------


6. (S) The apparently failed proposal for a ceasefire in
Kashmir between the Indian government and Pakistan-based
terrorists has also cast a negative shadow over PM Singh's
efforts. Prior to the break down in talks, Ashok Bhan
candidly told PolOff that the cease-fire was part of the
agreement between PM Singh and President Musharraf, with
Pakistan agreeing to put pressure on Kashmiri terrorists to
stop attacks. Press reports and Kashmiri separatists say tle
hoped-for cease fire died, however, because Hizbul Mujahideen
leader Sayeed Salahuddin could not convince other groups to
join them in ending the attacks. Moderate separatist Yasin
Malik says that Hizbul Mujahideen, however, was the only
group under intense pressure from Pakistan to agree to the
cease fire. (Comment: Given that the last Hizbul Mujahideen
leader to declare a cease fire was later killed by other
terrorists, Salahuddin may be hard pressed to give up
fighting on his own. That said, Hizbul Mujahideen's status
as the only remaining militant group made up of genuine
Kashmiris gives them some importance in reaching a final
settlement. Press reports indicate that Salahuddin has been
sending signals for months that he wants to join the
political process, and the Indians have also signaled they
would love to have him jump into politics here. End Comment.)



7. (S) Hawks in India's military and security services were
just as openly opposed to the cease fire as they are to the
joint mechanism on terrorism. Press reports indicate
security establishment concerns that, if India lets down its
guard in Jammu and Kashmir, especially while they see
terrorist infiltration rising, then Indian security forces
would lose the significant gains they have achieved against
the insurgents in recent years and incur the further wrath of
Indians still upset over Mumbai.

Singh Weathering Criticism
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8. (S) Comment: Prime Minister Singh seems to be staving
off criticism by hardliners generally about the joint
mechanism with Pakistan. Sonia Gandhi's boost of support on

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September 24th -- in refusing to appointing a Deputy Prime
Minister -- suggests that the Prime Minister's stature has
improved in the wake of his trip to Havana. Concern among
Congress officials in general about Muslim voters in Uttar
Pradesh is also likely allowing the Prime Minister some
leeway in forming the joint mechanism with Pakistan. Still,
a strong effort by Islamabad early on to demonstrate
Pakistan's seriousness about the joint mechanism could go a
long way to build trust in India and lessen the fallout Prime
Minister Singh is enduring from pushing ahead so soon with
talks after Mumbai. The PM's actions show yet again the
lengths to which he will go for a lasting peace with Pakistan.
MULFORD