INDIAN PM FACING OUTCRY AGAINST ANTI-TERROR PLAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 006737 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN SUBJECT: INDIAN PM FACING OUTCRY AGAINST ANTI-TERROR PLAN WITH PAKISTAN NEW DELHI 00006737 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (S) Summary: Prime Minister Singh has come under fire in India for his agreement with Pakistan to combat terrorism jointly. Opposition BJP leaders and hardliners in PM Singh's own party and India's security establishment have unleashed a barrage of statements criticizing the agreement. They say PM Singh has changed fundamentally India's principled stance by saying that Pakistan too suffers from terrorism. Musharraf's book launch has also stirred the ghosts of Indo-Pak hostility. In response, Indian officials have downplayed the significance of the agreement, saying that they do not expect much from the joint mechanism, at least initially. They say they need to begin working with Pakistan at a basic level, giving the country the benefit of the doubt, but they will also continue putting pressure on Pakistan as a source of terrorism. End Summary. Criticism of Joint Mechanism -------------- ¶2. (S) Hard News editor Sanjay Kapoor, who was a member of the press corps on PM Singh's trip to Havana, told PolOff on September 22nd that hardliners in the Indian delegation to Havana -- including National Security Advisor NK Narayanan -- privately remained skeptical of the agreement with Musharraf even while they announced it to the Indian press. He said PM Singh would have an uphill battle selling the agreement to members of his own party as a sincere effort on President Musharraf's part. ¶3. (S) One week after the agreement, hardline opposition has emerged in full force in the Indian press from both opposition BJP leaders and members of India's security services. Researchers from both the Institute for Conflict Management and the Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis say that the greatest criticism of the joint mechanism was that the so called "paradigm shift" away from India's longstanding stance against Pakistani terrorists would put the nation in jeopardy. There was significant concern that, by stating that Pakistan is also a victim of terrorism, the Prime Minister was helping confirm Pakistan's rhetoric about not being responsible for terrorism. Meanwhile, BJP leaders accuse the Prime Minister of "selling out the country" by agreeing to share information with Pakistan about terrorism. The headline grabbing obsession here with President Musharraf's new book -- in which the Indian press says he blames India for the Kargil conflict -- has further soured the mood. Details Still Being Negotiated -- Kashmir Excluded? -------------- -------------- ¶4. (S) While few details have emerged publicly about the modalities of the joint mechanism, both Kapoor and Congress Party operative Ashok Bhan said the Prime Minister planned to present the joint mechanism within the party as a sincere effort on Musharraf's part to end terrorist attacks in major Indian cities. They said the mechanism was supposed to mirror the joint action taken by India and Pakistan to combat Sikh extremists in Punjab in the 1980's -- when Pakistan seemingly reversed its support to insurgents and even turned some over to the Indian government. If Punjab could be stabilized, so too could Kashmir, the thinking goes. NEW DELHI 00006737 002.2 OF 003 (Comment: Musharraf's statements that Pakistan will not turn anyone over to India will make this argument difficult. End Comment.) Both Kapoor and Bhan also commented privately that Musharraf kept information sharing about Jammu and Kashmir out of the Joint Mechanism. They said the agreement covers only those groups that are acting outside of Jammu and Kashmir. ¶5. (S) Ministry of External Affairs Press Secretary Navtej Sarna told PolCouns on September 26th that few details about the joint mechanism had been worked out yet with Pakistan, including who would be involved in the meetings and how often officials would meet. He said he was countering negative press about the agreement by saying that there is no let up on India's stance on Pakistan, "but if we can counter terrorism jointly in both Pakistan and India, we should." Nonetheless, there would naturally be cynicism about how the two intel agencies would work together, and the joint mechanism would have to start at a basic level. Failed Ceasfire Fueling Skepticism -------------- ¶6. (S) The apparently failed proposal for a ceasefire in Kashmir between the Indian government and Pakistan-based terrorists has also cast a negative shadow over PM Singh's efforts. Prior to the break down in talks, Ashok Bhan candidly told PolOff that the cease-fire was part of the agreement between PM Singh and President Musharraf, with Pakistan agreeing to put pressure on Kashmiri terrorists to stop attacks. Press reports and Kashmiri separatists say tle hoped-for cease fire died, however, because Hizbul Mujahideen leader Sayeed Salahuddin could not convince other groups to join them in ending the attacks. Moderate separatist Yasin Malik says that Hizbul Mujahideen, however, was the only group under intense pressure from Pakistan to agree to the cease fire. (Comment: Given that the last Hizbul Mujahideen leader to declare a cease fire was later killed by other terrorists, Salahuddin may be hard pressed to give up fighting on his own. That said, Hizbul Mujahideen's status as the only remaining militant group made up of genuine Kashmiris gives them some importance in reaching a final settlement. Press reports indicate that Salahuddin has been sending signals for months that he wants to join the political process, and the Indians have also signaled they would love to have him jump into politics here. End Comment.) ¶7. (S) Hawks in India's military and security services were just as openly opposed to the cease fire as they are to the joint mechanism on terrorism. Press reports indicate security establishment concerns that, if India lets down its guard in Jammu and Kashmir, especially while they see terrorist infiltration rising, then Indian security forces would lose the significant gains they have achieved against the insurgents in recent years and incur the further wrath of Indians still upset over Mumbai. Singh Weathering Criticism -------------- ¶8. (S) Comment: Prime Minister Singh seems to be staving off criticism by hardliners generally about the joint mechanism with Pakistan. Sonia Gandhi's boost of support on NEW DELHI 00006737 003.2 OF 003 September 24th -- in refusing to appointing a Deputy Prime Minister -- suggests that the Prime Minister's stature has improved in the wake of his trip to Havana. Concern among Congress officials in general about Muslim voters in Uttar Pradesh is also likely allowing the Prime Minister some leeway in forming the joint mechanism with Pakistan. Still, a strong effort by Islamabad early on to demonstrate Pakistan's seriousness about the joint mechanism could go a long way to build trust in India and lessen the fallout Prime Minister Singh is enduring from pushing ahead so soon with talks after Mumbai. The PM's actions show yet again the lengths to which he will go for a lasting peace with Pakistan. MULFORD