KASHMIR: SELF RULE, SOFT BORDER SOLUTION GAINING

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006647 SIPDIS SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - ADDING CLASSIFICATION MARKINGS. PARA 6 E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KDEM KISL PK IN SUBJECT: KASHMIR: SELF RULE, SOFT BORDER SOLUTION GAINING CREDENCE NEW DELHI 00006647 001.5 OF 002 Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (S) Summary: Indian government responses to Musharraf's recent book, in which he discussed a four part solution to the Kashmir issue, are likely to be harsh publicly, and targeted for domestic consumption. However, journalists with access to the Prime Minister's office say the proposal is very similar to a non-paper Prime Minister Singh gave to President Musharraf in Havana. While many Kashmir watchers here believe that the rough outline of a solution is forming behind the scenes, few believe that Prime Minister Singh has the political backing to sell the proposal to the Indian public right now. They say that opposition BJP leaders and hawks in the military and Congress party have been a chief stumbling block to the proposed solution because they accuse Singh of being soft on Pakistan. They say that Prime Minister Singh and Sonia Gandhi may be unable to sell the agreement in India unless the following scenario unfolds: Singh runs and is elected as Prime Minister in his own right in 2008 and secures an unassailable position in Parliament. In essence, they say, everyone knows what the solution will be, but the various parties can't get to a resolution. End Summary. Similar proposals -------------- ¶2. (S) Hindustan Times editor Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, who has a frequent window into the Prime Minister's office, says President Musharraf's recent proposal on Kashmir mirrors in several parts a white paper passed by Prime Minister Singh to President Musharraf in Havana. According to Chaudhuri, the non-paper outlines a vague framework for resolving Kashmir, in which neither party would make territorial concessions, both Indian and Pakistani Kashmir would gain autonomy, the Line of Control would become a permanent, yet porous border, the Kashmir Valley would be demilitarized, and Pakistan would put an end to terrorist attacks in India. He says, however, that there will be pushback over Pakistan's commentary on the framework of an autonomous Jammu and Kashmir state. Indian officials have long held that Pakistan has no business interfering in India's internal affairs, and they say this will have to be resolved with the Kashmiris. ¶3. (S) BJP leaders and hawks in the Congress party have also become road blocks to the agreement. Chaudhuri points out that the process by which Pakistan prevents terrorist attacks in India will be the most important issue Prime Minister Singh will face. If the joint mechanism with Pakistan leads to an honest effort to prevent terrorists attacks in India, Prime Minister Singh will have a realistic answer for his hard line constituents. Separatists and PDP Proposals Mirror Musharraf -------------- - ¶4. (S) President Musharraf's views seem similar, however, to the proposals widely touted by All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq for a "United States of Kashmir." Prior to his recent meeting with Musharraf, the Mirwaiz discussed with PolOff and PolFSN his efforts to build support within the Kashmiri and Pakistani publics for his solution. First, the LOC would become a border, but every effort would be made by parties on both NEW DELHI 00006647 002.5 OF 002 sides to make it irrelevant -- similar to the soft barriers that define many of the borders in Europe. Second, both Kashmiri regions of India and Pakistan would be given semi-autonomous status. Third, the proposal would set three separate state assemblies on the Indian side including Jammu, Ladhak, and Srinagar, and two on the Pakistani side including Azad Kashmir and the Northern Areas. On the Indian side the Governor and Chief Minister posts would rotate to allow representatives from Jammu, Ladhak, and Srinagar an equal chance to fill each position. (Comment: The Mirwaiz is no doubt concerned about his own political future in this proposal and that of the rest of the APHC. With Srinagar having its own state assembly, the Mirwaiz and his APHC colleagues would only have to win in the Valley to serve at least part of the time in the Governor and Chief Minister positions -- rather than relying on minority Muslim voters in Jammu and Ladhak or having to worry about building a coalition with mainstream parties who may be reluctant to ally with former separatists. End Comment.) ¶5. (S) Pakistan People's Party leaders Mufti Sayeed and his daughter Mehbooba Sayeed -- who share a coalition with Congress in Jammu and Kashmir -- are also supporting a similar proposal. In discussions with PolOff and PolFSN they said benefits for Pakistan would come in three forms: First, the Azad and Srinagar assemblies would include non-voting representatives from the other side of the border who could serve in an advisory role. Second, real efforts would be made on both sides to open the border with residents, tourists, and goods flowing across. Third, joint committees would be formed with Kashmiri officials from both sides of the border to administer issues such as tourism promotion, prevention of disease, environmental concerns, and development. Press releases indicate that the PDP has tried to take the third part one step further in a party conference last weekend -- including announcing a proposal for a common currency between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir. Everyone agrees, but how do they get there? -------------- ¶6. (S) Comment: Musharraf and Singh face an uphill battle if they are to sell this or any other agreement in either India or Pakistan. Indian officials tell us often that overt US intervention will make Prime Minister Singh's efforts much harder because he already has to answer to opposition accusations that he is bowing to US pressure on this and many other issues. That said, strong action on Musharraf's part to demonstrate to the Indian population that he is serious about ending terrorist attacks in India will have a strong impact on how fast both sides can reach a resolution. MULFORD