MEA STILL CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE ON NEPAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006320 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR NP IN SUBJECT: MEA STILL CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE ON NEPAL Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary. MEA North Division Joint Secretary Pankaj Saran told PolCouns: -- in his analysis, the desire for success in Nepal's peace process "is overwhelming;" -- India continues to see eye-to-eye with the U.S. on key issues regarding Nepal; -- the Seven-Party Alliance must appear strong to prevent the insurgent Maoists from "going for the kill;" -- Indian Maoists may have ideological sympathies with Nepalese Maoists and perhaps some low-level coordination, but linkages are not extensive. End Summary. DESIRE TO SUCCEED OVERWHELMING -------------- ¶2. (C) PolCouns, in an initial courtesy call, met with Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) North Division (in charge of Nepal and Bhutan) Joint Secretary Pankaj Saran on September 8 to discuss India's analysis of the peace process in Nepal and to offer continued close coordination. Saran agreed with PolCouns that the U.S. and India have had excellent coordination in New Delhi, Kathmandu and Washington, and also agreed to use this channel as one venue to continue close coordination. Consistent with what contacts here have been saying, Saran was generally optimistic in regard to the chances for success in establishing a functioning democracy in Nepal. "Even when you analyze all the negatives," he said, "you come back to the same conclusion where the desire to succeed is overwhelming." He stated that it was his impression that the Nepalese people do not desire Maoist leadership. The two keys to success, he believed, were support from the international community in advancing the peace process, and for the government to get used to actually running the country, as opposed to being in the opposition. IF SPA LOOKS WEAK, MAOISTS WILL "GO FOR THE KILL" -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) On key issues, such as the need for Maoists to disarm prior to entering the government and UN involvement in monitoring elections, India still sees eye-to-eye with the U.S., Saran said. Getting the Maoists to agree to disarmament would likely require some kind of package deal, he opined, such as a guarantee of food -- perhaps through rations -- and jobs for the disarming cadres. But the government must assume a position of power in negotiating with the Maoists, he argued, saying "The Maoists are insurgents, and if they perceive the government as weak, they'll go for the kill." INDIA'S ROLE: PROVIDE POLITICAL SUPPORT -------------- ¶4. (C) Saran dismissed a two-week old rumor that a plane bound for Nepal carrying anti-aircraft missiles was turned around by Indian authorities, calling it a fabrication cooked up by Maoists. "They used the Indian press in an attempt to discredit the Nepalese government," he said. India maintains its ban on lethal weapons for Nepal, and was reassured that the U.S. has a similar policy. India's role at this time is to provide as much political support as possible, Saran explained. He added that India is now planning to look at NEW DELHI 00006320 002 OF 002 possible comprehensive economic cooperation with Nepal. INDIAN MAOISTS NOT EXTENSIVELY LINKED -------------- ¶5. (C) The relationship between Indian Maoists and Nepalese Maoists is a fundamental question to MEA, Saran said, but MEA does not have any concrete evidence of pacts between them. While there are indications of ideological sympathies between Indian and Nepalese Maoists, and "perhaps some small coordination," Saran concluded linkages were not extensive. Still, Saran admitted, India is "taking a series of initiatives" to deal with rapid growth in Madrassas along the common free border, as well as to address "some elements" which MEA believes are "misusing" the border. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Comment: Embassy will continue to seek opportunities to expand our dialogue with the GOI on Nepal, including a roundtable meeting next week with key Indian strategists. End comment. MULFORD