Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI6320
2006-09-11 10:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
MEA STILL CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE ON NEPAL
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006320
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR NP IN
SUBJECT: MEA STILL CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE ON NEPAL
Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 006320
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR NP IN
SUBJECT: MEA STILL CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE ON NEPAL
Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary. MEA North Division Joint Secretary Pankaj
Saran told PolCouns:
-- in his analysis, the desire for success in Nepal's peace
process "is overwhelming;"
-- India continues to see eye-to-eye with the U.S. on key
issues regarding Nepal;
-- the Seven-Party Alliance must appear strong to prevent the
insurgent Maoists from "going for the kill;"
-- Indian Maoists may have ideological sympathies with
Nepalese Maoists and perhaps some low-level coordination, but
linkages are not extensive. End Summary.
DESIRE TO SUCCEED OVERWHELMING
--------------
2. (C) PolCouns, in an initial courtesy call, met with
Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) North Division (in charge
of Nepal and Bhutan) Joint Secretary Pankaj Saran on
September 8 to discuss India's analysis of the peace process
in Nepal and to offer continued close coordination. Saran
agreed with PolCouns that the U.S. and India have had
excellent coordination in New Delhi, Kathmandu and
Washington, and also agreed to use this channel as one venue
to continue close coordination. Consistent with what contacts
here have been saying, Saran was generally optimistic in
regard to the chances for success in establishing a
functioning democracy in Nepal. "Even when you analyze all
the negatives," he said, "you come back to the same
conclusion where the desire to succeed is overwhelming." He
stated that it was his impression that the Nepalese people do
not desire Maoist leadership. The two keys to success, he
believed, were support from the international community in
advancing the peace process, and for the government to get
used to actually running the country, as opposed to being in
the opposition.
IF SPA LOOKS WEAK, MAOISTS WILL "GO FOR THE KILL"
-------------- --------------
3. (C) On key issues, such as the need for Maoists to disarm
prior to entering the government and UN involvement in
monitoring elections, India still sees eye-to-eye with the
U.S., Saran said. Getting the Maoists to agree to
disarmament would likely require some kind of package deal,
he opined, such as a guarantee of food -- perhaps through
rations -- and jobs for the disarming cadres. But the
government must assume a position of power in negotiating
with the Maoists, he argued, saying "The Maoists are
insurgents, and if they perceive the government as weak,
they'll go for the kill."
INDIA'S ROLE: PROVIDE POLITICAL SUPPORT
--------------
4. (C) Saran dismissed a two-week old rumor that a plane
bound for Nepal carrying anti-aircraft missiles was turned
around by Indian authorities, calling it a fabrication cooked
up by Maoists. "They used the Indian press in an attempt to
discredit the Nepalese government," he said. India maintains
its ban on lethal weapons for Nepal, and was reassured that
the U.S. has a similar policy. India's role at this time is
to provide as much political support as possible, Saran
explained. He added that India is now planning to look at
NEW DELHI 00006320 002 OF 002
possible comprehensive economic cooperation with Nepal.
INDIAN MAOISTS NOT EXTENSIVELY LINKED
--------------
5. (C) The relationship between Indian Maoists and Nepalese
Maoists is a fundamental question to MEA, Saran said, but MEA
does not have any concrete evidence of pacts between them.
While there are indications of ideological sympathies between
Indian and Nepalese Maoists, and "perhaps some small
coordination," Saran concluded linkages were not extensive.
Still, Saran admitted, India is "taking a series of
initiatives" to deal with rapid growth in Madrassas along the
common free border, as well as to address "some elements"
which MEA believes are "misusing" the border.
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) Comment: Embassy will continue to seek opportunities
to expand our dialogue with the GOI on Nepal, including a
roundtable meeting next week with key Indian strategists.
End comment.
MULFORD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MARR NP IN
SUBJECT: MEA STILL CAUTIOUSLY POSITIVE ON NEPAL
Classified By: DCM Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) Summary. MEA North Division Joint Secretary Pankaj
Saran told PolCouns:
-- in his analysis, the desire for success in Nepal's peace
process "is overwhelming;"
-- India continues to see eye-to-eye with the U.S. on key
issues regarding Nepal;
-- the Seven-Party Alliance must appear strong to prevent the
insurgent Maoists from "going for the kill;"
-- Indian Maoists may have ideological sympathies with
Nepalese Maoists and perhaps some low-level coordination, but
linkages are not extensive. End Summary.
DESIRE TO SUCCEED OVERWHELMING
--------------
2. (C) PolCouns, in an initial courtesy call, met with
Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) North Division (in charge
of Nepal and Bhutan) Joint Secretary Pankaj Saran on
September 8 to discuss India's analysis of the peace process
in Nepal and to offer continued close coordination. Saran
agreed with PolCouns that the U.S. and India have had
excellent coordination in New Delhi, Kathmandu and
Washington, and also agreed to use this channel as one venue
to continue close coordination. Consistent with what contacts
here have been saying, Saran was generally optimistic in
regard to the chances for success in establishing a
functioning democracy in Nepal. "Even when you analyze all
the negatives," he said, "you come back to the same
conclusion where the desire to succeed is overwhelming." He
stated that it was his impression that the Nepalese people do
not desire Maoist leadership. The two keys to success, he
believed, were support from the international community in
advancing the peace process, and for the government to get
used to actually running the country, as opposed to being in
the opposition.
IF SPA LOOKS WEAK, MAOISTS WILL "GO FOR THE KILL"
-------------- --------------
3. (C) On key issues, such as the need for Maoists to disarm
prior to entering the government and UN involvement in
monitoring elections, India still sees eye-to-eye with the
U.S., Saran said. Getting the Maoists to agree to
disarmament would likely require some kind of package deal,
he opined, such as a guarantee of food -- perhaps through
rations -- and jobs for the disarming cadres. But the
government must assume a position of power in negotiating
with the Maoists, he argued, saying "The Maoists are
insurgents, and if they perceive the government as weak,
they'll go for the kill."
INDIA'S ROLE: PROVIDE POLITICAL SUPPORT
--------------
4. (C) Saran dismissed a two-week old rumor that a plane
bound for Nepal carrying anti-aircraft missiles was turned
around by Indian authorities, calling it a fabrication cooked
up by Maoists. "They used the Indian press in an attempt to
discredit the Nepalese government," he said. India maintains
its ban on lethal weapons for Nepal, and was reassured that
the U.S. has a similar policy. India's role at this time is
to provide as much political support as possible, Saran
explained. He added that India is now planning to look at
NEW DELHI 00006320 002 OF 002
possible comprehensive economic cooperation with Nepal.
INDIAN MAOISTS NOT EXTENSIVELY LINKED
--------------
5. (C) The relationship between Indian Maoists and Nepalese
Maoists is a fundamental question to MEA, Saran said, but MEA
does not have any concrete evidence of pacts between them.
While there are indications of ideological sympathies between
Indian and Nepalese Maoists, and "perhaps some small
coordination," Saran concluded linkages were not extensive.
Still, Saran admitted, India is "taking a series of
initiatives" to deal with rapid growth in Madrassas along the
common free border, as well as to address "some elements"
which MEA believes are "misusing" the border.
COMMENT
--------------
6. (C) Comment: Embassy will continue to seek opportunities
to expand our dialogue with the GOI on Nepal, including a
roundtable meeting next week with key Indian strategists.
End comment.
MULFORD