Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI5798
2006-08-21 13:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
INDIA STILL UNDECIDED ON ENHANCED UNIFIL
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C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 005798
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS KPAL IN
SUBJECT: INDIA STILL UNDECIDED ON ENHANCED UNIFIL
CONTRIBUTION
REF: STATE 134133
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 005798
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS KPAL IN
SUBJECT: INDIA STILL UNDECIDED ON ENHANCED UNIFIL
CONTRIBUTION
REF: STATE 134133
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) UN POLITICAL
(UNP) Division, in charge of India's UNIFIL portfolio,
reported that as of August 21 the GOI has still not decided
on a contribution to an enhanced UNIFIL mission. UNP Under
Secretary Manish confirmed senior level officials from MEA,
SIPDIS
the Ministry of Defense, and Indian Defense Intelligence
Agency met in the afternoon of August 18 to discuss UNSCR
1701, rules of engagement and operation plans. However no
decisions were made at the August 18 meeting and Manish said
he did not expect a decision "for another couple days."
According to contacts of the Defense Attache's Office
(USDAO),the August 18 meeting was not intended to finalize a
recommendation, rather merely to present options for the
Prime Minister's Office to consider. (Note: USDAO is
reporting septel through military channels on information
received from its contacts. End Note.) French Embassy
Political Counselor Gilles Bourbao confirmed that France has
contacted India regarding possible troop contributions, but
noted France is primarily lobbying India via their respective
UN Missions in New York.
2. (C) Comment. Post expects the GOI to move cautiously
before coming to a decision on UNIFIL, for there are
important and competing Indian interests at stake, and all
the apparent choices carry a downside for New Delhi. For
starters, India has been a member of UNIFIL since 1998, has
over a battalion on the ground at present, and holds the
Deputy UNIFIL Commander's position, so it is already a large
stakeholder in UNIFIL. However, Indian military contacts
have told USDAO that there is a belief within India's defense
establishment that the situation is doomed to deteriorate
again soon, with UNIFIL likely to be caught in the middle of
offensive operations from Israel, if not both sides. Bourbao
told Poloff that in his discussions with GOI counterparts, it
was made clear that India does not want to be put in a
position where they would have to fire on Muslims, for fear
of the domestic POLITICAL backlash. Meanwhile, Israeli DCM
Yoed Magen told Charge that Israel feels POLITICAL RELATIONS
with India have been damaged since the conflict in Lebanon
began in July, stated Israel prefers European peacekeepers,
and added FM Livni was going to tell UNSYG Kofi Annan as much
in an August 18 meeting. At the same time, internal Indian
politics divide between the need to maintain good RELATIONS
with Israel, India's second largest arms supplier, and the
Congress Party's need to placate an enormously important
Muslim constituency which loudly condemned Israel's actions
in Lebanon. While Indian participation in enhanced UNIFIL
may seem undesirable to some here, all this takes place in
the context of India's quest for a permanent UN Security
Council Seat, greater influence in the region and beyond, and
Shashi Tharoor's campaign for the post of UNSYG. An up in
the ante by Bangladesh and Nepal offering at least a
battalion each to UNIFIL also puts pressure on India. With
so many conflicting calculations, and events on the ground in
Lebanon still fluid, it may be more than "another couple
days" before the cautious Indians make a decision.
PYATT
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS KPAL IN
SUBJECT: INDIA STILL UNDECIDED ON ENHANCED UNIFIL
CONTRIBUTION
REF: STATE 134133
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) UN POLITICAL
(UNP) Division, in charge of India's UNIFIL portfolio,
reported that as of August 21 the GOI has still not decided
on a contribution to an enhanced UNIFIL mission. UNP Under
Secretary Manish confirmed senior level officials from MEA,
SIPDIS
the Ministry of Defense, and Indian Defense Intelligence
Agency met in the afternoon of August 18 to discuss UNSCR
1701, rules of engagement and operation plans. However no
decisions were made at the August 18 meeting and Manish said
he did not expect a decision "for another couple days."
According to contacts of the Defense Attache's Office
(USDAO),the August 18 meeting was not intended to finalize a
recommendation, rather merely to present options for the
Prime Minister's Office to consider. (Note: USDAO is
reporting septel through military channels on information
received from its contacts. End Note.) French Embassy
Political Counselor Gilles Bourbao confirmed that France has
contacted India regarding possible troop contributions, but
noted France is primarily lobbying India via their respective
UN Missions in New York.
2. (C) Comment. Post expects the GOI to move cautiously
before coming to a decision on UNIFIL, for there are
important and competing Indian interests at stake, and all
the apparent choices carry a downside for New Delhi. For
starters, India has been a member of UNIFIL since 1998, has
over a battalion on the ground at present, and holds the
Deputy UNIFIL Commander's position, so it is already a large
stakeholder in UNIFIL. However, Indian military contacts
have told USDAO that there is a belief within India's defense
establishment that the situation is doomed to deteriorate
again soon, with UNIFIL likely to be caught in the middle of
offensive operations from Israel, if not both sides. Bourbao
told Poloff that in his discussions with GOI counterparts, it
was made clear that India does not want to be put in a
position where they would have to fire on Muslims, for fear
of the domestic POLITICAL backlash. Meanwhile, Israeli DCM
Yoed Magen told Charge that Israel feels POLITICAL RELATIONS
with India have been damaged since the conflict in Lebanon
began in July, stated Israel prefers European peacekeepers,
and added FM Livni was going to tell UNSYG Kofi Annan as much
in an August 18 meeting. At the same time, internal Indian
politics divide between the need to maintain good RELATIONS
with Israel, India's second largest arms supplier, and the
Congress Party's need to placate an enormously important
Muslim constituency which loudly condemned Israel's actions
in Lebanon. While Indian participation in enhanced UNIFIL
may seem undesirable to some here, all this takes place in
the context of India's quest for a permanent UN Security
Council Seat, greater influence in the region and beyond, and
Shashi Tharoor's campaign for the post of UNSYG. An up in
the ante by Bangladesh and Nepal offering at least a
battalion each to UNIFIL also puts pressure on India. With
so many conflicting calculations, and events on the ground in
Lebanon still fluid, it may be more than "another couple
days" before the cautious Indians make a decision.
PYATT