INDIA STILL UNDECIDED ON ENHANCED UNIFIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 005798 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER MOPS KPAL IN SUBJECT: INDIA STILL UNDECIDED ON ENHANCED UNIFIL CONTRIBUTION REF: STATE 134133 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Geoffrey Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) UN Political (UNP) Division, in charge of India's UNIFIL portfolio, reported that as of August 21 the GOI has still not decided on a contribution to an enhanced UNIFIL mission. UNP Under Secretary Manish confirmed senior level officials from MEA, SIPDIS the Ministry of Defense, and Indian Defense Intelligence Agency met in the afternoon of August 18 to discuss UNSCR 1701, rules of engagement and operation plans. However no decisions were made at the August 18 meeting and Manish said he did not expect a decision "for another couple days." According to contacts of the Defense Attache's Office (USDAO),the August 18 meeting was not intended to finalize a recommendation, rather merely to present options for the Prime Minister's Office to consider. (Note: USDAO is reporting septel through military channels on information received from its contacts. End Note.) French Embassy Political Counselor Gilles Bourbao confirmed that France has contacted India regarding possible troop contributions, but noted France is primarily lobbying India via their respective UN Missions in New York. ¶2. (C) Comment. Post expects the GOI to move cautiously before coming to a decision on UNIFIL, for there are important and competing Indian interests at stake, and all the apparent choices carry a downside for New Delhi. For starters, India has been a member of UNIFIL since 1998, has over a battalion on the ground at present, and holds the Deputy UNIFIL Commander's position, so it is already a large stakeholder in UNIFIL. However, Indian military contacts have told USDAO that there is a belief within India's defense establishment that the situation is doomed to deteriorate again soon, with UNIFIL likely to be caught in the middle of offensive operations from Israel, if not both sides. Bourbao told Poloff that in his discussions with GOI counterparts, it was made clear that India does not want to be put in a position where they would have to fire on Muslims, for fear of the domestic political backlash. Meanwhile, Israeli DCM Yoed Magen told Charge that Israel feels political relations with India have been damaged since the conflict in Lebanon began in July, stated Israel prefers European peacekeepers, and added FM Livni was going to tell UNSYG Kofi Annan as much in an August 18 meeting. At the same time, internal Indian politics divide between the need to maintain good relations with Israel, India's second largest arms supplier, and the Congress Party's need to placate an enormously important Muslim constituency which loudly condemned Israel's actions in Lebanon. While Indian participation in enhanced UNIFIL may seem undesirable to some here, all this takes place in the context of India's quest for a permanent UN Security Council Seat, greater influence in the region and beyond, and Shashi Tharoor's campaign for the post of UNSYG. An up in the ante by Bangladesh and Nepal offering at least a battalion each to UNIFIL also puts pressure on India. With so many conflicting calculations, and events on the ground in Lebanon still fluid, it may be more than "another couple days" before the cautious Indians make a decision. PYATT