TWO GRUMPY OLD MEN HIJACK NATIONAL POLITICS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 005621

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM EPET IN
SUBJECT: TWO GRUMPY OLD MEN HIJACK NATIONAL POLITICS AND
STOKE ANTI-AMERICANISM

REF: A. NEW DELHI 5494

B. NEW DELHI 5285

C. NEW DELHI 5138

Classified By: Charge Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Two grumpy old men, Natwar Singh of
Congress and Jaswant Singh of the BJP, have made unwise
decisions that will likely end their political careers. Too
proud to admit to poor judgment, both men have blamed
Congress for their problems and taken the offensive.
Ordinarily, their fate would be little more than a political
footnote, but in the current supercharged political
atmosphere it could have longer-term implications. The Left,
increasingly frustrated with the pro-US tilt of the Prime
Minister, has joined hands with powerful regional parties to
oppose the India/US Nuclear Accord. An embittered Natwar and
Jaswant have thrown their weight into this effort. Although
the two Singhs are unlikely to survive in the political
arena, their agitation has helped a nascent anti-US alliance
gain ground. The Communists are backing the ruling Samajwadi
Party (SP) in the February 2007 Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections,
while Congress has vowed to knock the SP from power. If the
Left and SP do well in this contest, it could heighten calls
for the Communists to withdraw support from the UPA, and
bring on a mid-term poll with the intent of increasing the
power of this "third front." If that happens, these stubborn
septuagenarians may well have lit the fire by their current
disgraceful antics. End Summary.

Jaswant Puts His Foot in His Mouth
--------------


2. (C) On the face of it, the actions of Jaswant Singh, the
BJP's leader in the Upper House of Parliament, seem
ludicrous, but they could have far-reaching political
ramifications. At the same time as his book launch, Singh
tabled a 1995 "letter" in Parliament, which he claimed was
from former Ambassador Harry Barnes to Senator Thomas Graham.
Singh further asserted that the letter proved the existence
of a US spy in the office of then Prime Minister PV Narasimha
Rao. The "mole" allegations have blown up in his face,
making him and the BJP objects of ridicule throughout the
country. This was epitomized by the August 1 Parliamentary
debate, during which Singh rambled on incoherently for two
hours, while UPA MPs repeatedly shouted "mole, mole." PM
Manmohan Singh interjected several times demanding that Singh
present the name of the "mole" or withdraw his allegations.
Congress, sensing a target of opportunity, on August 2 tabled
a motion in Parliament alleging that the letter was faked,
that Singh's insistence on its authenticity constituted a
serious error of judgment, and demanding that he step down as
his party's leader in the Upper House.

While Natwar Sinks
--------------


3. (U) Congress did not have long, however, to relish the
BJP's discomfiture. On August 4 the Pathak committee of
inquiry submitted its report to Parliament on the allegations
made in the Volker Report regarding former Foreign Minister
Natwar Singh's role in the oil for food scandal. The Pathak
Report determined that while Natwar did not personally
benefit from alleged oil deals involving the Saddam Hussein
regime, he had "misused his position" to procure lucrative
contracts and commissions for his son, Jagat Singh, and
Andleeb Sehgal, a distant friend and relative. The BJP,

NEW DELHI 00005621 002 OF 003


reeling under the Congress attack against Jaswant Singh,
immediately geared up to use Natwar's disgrace to undermine
the ruling party.

Offense is Not the Best Defense
--------------


4. (U) Natwar's response to the Patwar report provided
crucial assistance to the opposition. Claiming that the
report "vindicated" him, Natwar became the first MP ever to
bring a motion against his own Prime Minister. Natwar called
on Parliament to condemn PM Manmohan Singh for allegedly
leaking the Pathak report to the press before it could be
presented to Parliament. The BJP quickly lined up to support
Natwar's motion (which was denied). Natwar's move outraged
Congress President Sonia Gandhi and other Congress leaders,
who promptly suspended Natwar from the party and asked him to
"show cause" why he should not be expelled.

A Growing anti-US Alliance
--------------


5. (C) Both Natwar and Jaswant Singh epitomize high-caste
pride and unwillingness to admit to error. This has led them
to compound their problems by blaming the Congress, the UPA
and PM Manmohan Singh for their falls from grace and joining
with UPA opponents to work against the government. Both men
have allied themselves with an anti-US group in Parliament
which the press has called the "nuclear club" because of its
hostility to the US/India Civil Nuclear Accord. Other
members include former BJP Foreign Minister Yashwant Singh,
CPI-M politburo member Sitaram Yechury, SP General Secretary
Amar Singh, and Janata Dal-U leader Digvijay Singh.


6. (C) The "Nuclear Club" has fabricated a loose alliance
that has worked jointly against the India/US Accord and
backed Natwar Singh's motion against the PM. The Left
Front(LF),ironically at the heart of this group even as it
supports the UPA coalition, has crafted a close alliance with
the SP, while attracting the regional parties AIADMK (Tamil
Nadu),Telegu Desam (Karnataka) and Janata Dal-U (Bihar).

Possible Political Ramifications
--------------


7. (C) Few expect that Jaswant and Natwar will be able to
salvage their shattered political reputations. Most
observers expect Natwar to be expelled from Congress
eventually, while Jaswant is likely to lose his position as
leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha and see his
political fortunes fade away. This has not prevented
opportunistic political parties from taking advantage of
their misfortune, however. The emerging unity between the LF
and powerful regional parties has prompted growing
speculation that the Communists may be building up their
strength in preparation to bring down the government. The
Communists and Congress have been sparring since their
marriage of convenience in 2004. Since then, Communist
strength has continued to grow, while that of Congress and
the BJP declines. The Left has used the Nuclear Accord issue
to embarrass Manmohan Singh and has even worked at times with
the hated BJP to score points against the UPA. The downfall
of the two Singhs has provided them with more grist for their
mill.

Long-term and Short-term
--------------

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8. (C) The Communists' principal reason to stick with their
enemies in Congress has been to prevent a resurgence of the
even more hated enemies in the BJP. The Jaswant episode has
revealed just how weak, dis-spirited and disunited the BJP
has become, with powerful regional allies leaving the NDA to
throw their support to the Left. Growing Left anger over the
PM's stance on the Nuclear Accord and his recent reluctance
to condemn strongly Israeli actions in Lebanon have also
contributed to the rumors of an impending Congress/Left
break. In the past, Communist leaders were quick to assert
their loyalty to the UPA following every disagreement. This
time the mood is different and no such assertions have been
forthcoming. While the UPA is unlikely to fall over the
short-term, everyone will be watching the expected February
2007 election in Uttar Pradesh (UP). There, the Communists
are supporting the SP, while Congress has vowed to knock the
SP from power. This election will give the nascent
Left/regional alliance a chance to demonstrate its appeal at
the polls. If, sometime next year, the Left and Regional
Parties decide to unseat the UPA, it may well be said that
Jaswant and Natwar provided the spark that started it all.


9. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT