POLLING DATA SHOWS THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF PM SINGH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: POLLING DATA SHOWS THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF PM SINGH
IS SECURELY IN PLACE


Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: Despite domestic setbacks, two recent polls
indicate that the Congress-dominated UPA remains popular with
the Indian voter due to sustained economic growth, a popular
foreign policy plank and the enduring appeal of the Congress
Party and the Gandhi family brand. Congress President Sonia
Gandhi's popularity is at an all-time high, with a clear
majority preferring her as Prime Minister over Manmohan
Singh. Despite the poll ratings, which suggest that Congress
could escape its reliance on the Left, the party is not
willing to risk a mid-term poll and national elections are
not likely until the UPA term expires in 2009. In this
regard, Congress has learned from the BJP's hubris in calling
early elections in 2004. The opposition BJP's poor
performance in the polls reflects its deep divisions and
leadership disarray. End Summary.


2. (U) On January 23rd the television channel CNN-IBN and
the "Hindustan Times" released the results of their nation
wide survey of 15,141 respondents spread across 28 states and
Delhi conducted by the Delhi based Center for the Study of
Developing Societies, a leading social science research
institution. The poll documented that a clear majority (34%)
of the respondents preferred the current UPA government led
by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the previous NDA
government(24%). Respondents also preferred Congress
President Sonia Gandhi for Prime Minister over Manmohan Singh
(24% versus 9%.) Former PM AB Vajpayee was a close second to
Sonia, with 20%. This is the first time we can recall since
her entry into politics that a survey showed Sonia to be a
leading favorite for the country's highest political office.


3. (U) The survey predicts that if a parliamentary election
were held today, the Congress-led UPA would win 274 seats in
the 542 member Lok Sabha (an increase of 49 seats from its
current 225). Such an outcome would provide the UPA with a
slim absolute majority and allow it to rule without the
support of the troublesome Left parties. The NDA would come
in a poor second, with just 150 (down 25 from its current 175
seats.) The survey also predicted that Congress would win
parliamentary majorities in Punjab, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh
and Karnataka, all states where it lost badly to the NDA in
the 2004 national elections. The poll also indicated that
Congress was well on its way to revival in its former
stronghold of Uttar Pradesh (UP).


4. (U) While the Congress party was evidently pleased with
the outcome of the survey, it was quick to dismiss
speculation that it was planning to call early parliamentary
elections, with Congress Minister of Science and Technology
Kapil Sibal declaring that there would be no elections before
the UPA completed its five year term in 2009. This
demonstrates that Congress has learned from the BJP's
mistaken hubris in calling an early election in 2004. The
opposition BJP rejected the survey because of the small size
of its sample.


5. (U) A separate poll by the BJP-supporting "India Today"
replicated much of the CNN/IBN/Hindustan Times Poll results,
although the margin in favor of Congress and the UPA was
smaller. In that poll, Congress slipped marginally from 32%
to 30% as the party best qualified to rule the nation. Poll
respondents indicated that if an election were held today the
UPA could win up to 242 seats. The "India Today" poll showed
the NDA remaining within its current range with between
170-180 seats. Those polled by "India Today" also showed a
strong preference for Sonia Gandhi over Manmohan Singh for

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Prime Minister (27 percent versus 15 percent). As in the
other poll, the BJP's AB Vajpayee came in a close second to
Sonia Gandhi with 24%. Despite his third place showing,
Manmohan Singh's performance rating remained strong, with 35
percent stating hisperformance as "good" and 35 percent
"average" and only 12 percent "poor."

Comment - UPA Sitting Pretty
--------------


6. (C) While no survey conducted in India in the past few
years has accurately captured the true sentiments of the
Indian voter, these polls are consistent with our own
analysis and what we are hearing from our contacts. Although
the UPA faces domestic problems (septel) it retains a firm
hold on power in New Delhi, due to a rapidly growing economy,
a successful foreign policy and the enduring charisma
attached to the ruling Congress and the Gandhi family. The
two polls disagreed on whether the UPA would be able to
capture an absolute majority in mid-term polls. Although
Congress would like to rule without the support of the Left
Front (LF),there is enough uncertainty in the polling data
to convince Congress to exercise caution and not call for new
elections. The weakness of the opposition underlies the
UPA's strong showing. The BJP has been convulsed with
internal problems since its defeat in the 2004 national
elections, many in the country view it as a party in
disarray, and it is currently unable to mount a serious
challenge to the Congress party. It is a reflection on the
party's bankruptcy that Former PM Vajpayee remains the BJP's
most popular figure. His departure from electoral politics
will further undercut the party's electoral performance.


7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD