PM SINGH BESIEGED BY MULTIPLE POLITICAL CRISES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 005030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR IN PK
SUBJECT: PM SINGH BESIEGED BY MULTIPLE POLITICAL CRISES

REF: A. NEW DELHI 4990


B. NEW DELHI 4202

C. NEW DELHI 4200

D. NEW DELHI 4062

Classified By: Charge Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: After weeks under fire over primarily
domestic issues, the July 11 Mumbai and Srinagar attacks have
added a foreign policy dimension to criticism of PM Singh's
performance, which will spill over into the July 24
Parliament session. Manmohan Singh is under attack
politically from both the Right and the Left and facing the
most serious challenge of his Prime Ministership. The
favorable G-8 statement condemning the Mumbai attacks will
buy the Prime Minister some time, as will a brewing
controversy over the BJP's own handling of terrorism, but all
eyes in India are looking to Islamabad for tangible action
against terrorism. This time, Indians will not be satisfied
with what analysts here view as the stock Pakistani response
of mass arrests followed by mass releases peppered with a few
house arrests, or "catch and release." As an indication of
the shift in Indian public opinion, even Indo-Pak peacenik
and NDTV correspondent Barkha Dutt observed in a weekend
column that the Mumbai blasts were so lethal, they had
evaporated domestic support from the peace process. End
Summary.

A PM Under Fire
--------------


2. (C) The Left parties have grown in stature and power
following their resounding victories in the Kerala and West
Bengal elections (Ref D),and have now taken on the character
of the de facto opposition. They have focused their attacks
on the UPA's economic reform agenda and blossoming
relationship with the US, with the Prime Minister cast as
instigator of both initiatives. He has also faced growing
criticism from political pundits and the BJP for "weakness,"
a lack of political skills, and an apparent inability to play
the game of coalition politics. This was epitomized by his
cave-in to demands by the Left and regional parties on price
hikes and privatization.


3. (C) Exploiting the terrorism issue, the BJP appears
determined to make life miserable for the PM when Parliament
convenes, using explosive and personal rhetoric attacking his
ability to lead the nation in a time of national crisis.
With the Left carving out a space far from Congress and
seemingly above criticism, and the BJP going for the jugular,
the PM stands isolated and could find it very difficult to
defend himself on the floor of Parliament starting July 24.

The BJP Looks for Revival ...
--------------


4. (C) The BJP, itself the strong proponent of closer
US-India ties and economic reform, has been politically
adrift and was bereft of an issue it could use to score
political points against Congress and the UPA. The Mumbai
terrorist attacks provided the BJP with an issue upon which
they can hang a hoped-for political revival.


5. (C) As a result, the BJP has been unstinting in its
criticism of the PM and has called for him to resign. Former
BJP Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh accused the UPA of
"playing with the security of the nation." (NOTE: A recent

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Indian press kerfluffle may negate some of Jaswant's
criticism. The "Hindustan Times" on July 18 reported that
passages in his forthcoming autobiography, "A Call to
Honour," regarding a possible cash ransom for the December
1999 IC-814 hostages and handing a bag of explosives to the
hijackers may prompt the government to open a probe into the
BJP's handling of the incident. End Note.) In a sign of how
the BJP's center of gravity has shifted, the party has also
begun promoting Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as the
epitome of a strong "no-nonsense" leader who would stand up
to terrorism and contrasting his strength with the PM's
alleged "weakness."
... And Going In for the Kill
--------------


6. (SBU) The BJP hooked its early post-Mumbai rhetoric on
the assertion that the UPA government fostered an atmosphere
of complaisance regarding terrorism by repealing the
controversial Prevention of Terrorism Act (POTA) and
replacing it with the UPA's own Unlawful Activities
(Prevention) Act (UAPA). BJP Lok Sabha Opposition Leader LK
Advani lobbied for POTA's revival in the next Parliamentary
session.


7. (C) In addition to reviving POTA, Jaswant Singh publicly
attacked the MEA for failing to utter "one intelligent word"
regarding the Mumbai attacks. He also told journalists the
terrorism tempo in India was "the worst in a decade." The
BJP-affiliated "Pioneer" has been supporting the charge; a
weekend editorial by Swapan Dasgupta likened PM Singh's
pursuit of Indo-Pak rapprochement with Chamberlainian
appeasement; Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi, he
continued, was less a Margaret Thatcher or Indira Gandhi
(which he argued India needed now) than a "Florence
Nightingale for an evening." Dasgupta's solution, he
intimated in his closing, is a hard-line response a la
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

The PM Attempts a Spirited Defense
--------------


8. (C) Despite a growing (if unfair) reputation for
weakness, the PM has moved smartly to mount a defense. He
drew attention to several spectacular terrorist attacks that
happened during the BJP government while POTA was operative,
including the 2003 Mumbai bombings and the attack on the
Akshardam Temple. (COMMENT: See 04 NEW DELHI 8028 for
Embassy New Delhi's assessment that UAPA retains POTA's
salient elements and offers legal expansion to some GOI
counterterrorist intelligence capabilities while removing
some of POTA's onerous detention-without-charging aspects.
The POTA/UAPA controversy is largely a partisan affair with
little substance. End Comment.)

Left Distancing Itself from Congress
--------------


9. (C) The Left parties, which prop up the UPA government,
are already hostile and have joined the anti-Pakistan
bandwagon, with prominent Left personality and MP Brinda
Karat canceling her participation in an Islamabad
parliamentary event. This did not prevent the Communists
from criticizing Congress on Indo-Pak affairs. CPI MP
Gurudas Dasgupta remarked that even the Mumbai attack should
not be used to call off Indo-Pak talks; "rather, they should
be constituted, because the terror strikes attempted to
derail these talks, and terrorists should not be allowed to

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have their way." The CPI have historically placed great
emphasis on Indo-Pak rapprochement, and with Congress
seemingly in disarray, they can now carve out their own space
regarding terrorism.

Attack on a Proxy Target: NSA Narayanan Assailed as Weak
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) The "Sunday Hindustan Times" on July 16 devoted a
full page to "squarely blaming" NSA Narayanan for the string
of major terrorist attacks outside J&K over the past 12
months (Ayodhya, Delhi/Diwali, Bangalore, Varanasi, and
Mumbai): "Spies and terrorists are running amok in India,
blame it on this man." Ironically (given that he has acted
as the UPA government's designated hardliner) Narayanan also
took the heat for the two unfolding spy scandals, the "War
Room Leak" and the National Security Council Secretariat
case, both of which dominated domestic headlines pre-Mumbai,
to the embarrassment and consternation of the government.
(NOTE: In fact, it was only the Mumbai attacks that pushed
these stories off the front page of most major Indian
English-language dailies last week. End Note.) The
"Hindustan Times" is known to be close to PM Singh, and
political observers are already theorizing that the PMO
planted the anti-Narayanan stories to deflect attention away
from the embattled Prime Minister.

G-8 Statement "A Major Diplomatic Gain"
--------------


11. (SBU) Before the PM departed Delhi for St. Petersburg,
Foreign Secretary Saran on July 15 told reporters he sought a
"united response" against terrorism from the world leaders,
undoubtedly signaling the GOI's desire for a firm,
multilateral condemnation of the attacks, plus pressure
against Musharraf to live up to his promise. Weekend
commentary prior to the start of the summit was cynical about
the G-8 process, claiming the member countries were
interested only in themselves and have been effectively
distracted by events in the Middle East. Some commentators
rhetorically questioned why the G-8 countries maintain a
double standard that places higher value on Israeli lives
than Indian.


12. (SBU) Initial Indian responses to the strongly-worded
statement have been positive. Writing on July 19 from St.
Petersburg for the "Indian Express," Strategic Affairs Editor
C Raja Mohan called the statement "a tough political message
to Islamabad," the PM in St. Petersburg described it as "very
important" and "particularly relevant," and Saran told
reporters it was "a major diplomatic gain for India." This
buys the PM some breathing room, but New Delhi and the
pundits that prod it will soon seek actions that back up
those strong words.

But India Believes the West Values Musharraf More
-------------- --------------


13. (SBU) The Indian elite, nearly five years after 9/11,
believes "the West" (read "Washington and London") continues
to view Musharraf as Pakistan's last, best hope. Even those
Indians who accept Musharraf's positive intentions dismiss
him as a leader who is either actively promoting or
hopelessly out of the loop regarding GOP promotion of
cross-border terrorism. There was also considerable Indian
anger over Pakistan's apparent initial disdain for India's
suffering as voiced by Foreign Minister Kasuri (whose

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ill-formed statement of last week is still resonating in
Indian press, see Ref A),with some commentators asserting
that Pakistan expects a free ride when it comes to its
"obvious" support for terrorism. Despite the Indian disgust
for Musharraf, when we ask them what Pakistani leader would
be a better partner against terrorism, the Indian critics'
silence is deafening.

Indo-Pak the Venue for the PM to Show His Stripes
-------------- --------------


14. (C) As Parliament returns, we expect the PM will focus
on Indo-Pak affairs, which will be an easier task for him
than coalition management. He has personally issued stronger
anti-terrorism statements than ever before, firing direct
shots at Pakistan President Musharraf's January 2004 promise
to prevent Pakistan-based terrorism from affecting India by
stating that "We are also certain that these terror modules
are instigated, inspired, and supported by elements across
the border without which they cannot act with such
devastating effects." "I would not want to use harsh words,"
but "in a democracy there is a limitation on what a leader
can do if terrorists are having free rein," a signal that he
is closely watching Indian public opinion. He added to
reporters on his official jet as he winged to St. Petersburg
that "The terror attacks on Mumbai were on a massive scale,
and could not have been accomplished without external
involvement." Musharraf's promise "must be fulfilled before
the peace process can make progress," a clear signal that the
PM expects tangible counterterrorism cooperation before the
rapprochement process can be restarted. NDTV Defense and
Foreign Affairs Correspondent Ajay Shukla pointed out that
the Composite Dialogue talks "are being delayed, not
cancelled," and that the decision was made primarily for
domestic political considerations.

Comment: So That's Where He Will Look for Progress
-------------- --------------


15. (C) On the way to St. Petersburg, the PM specified he
wanted "action on the ground" from Islamabad to demonstrate
its commitment to combating terrorism. The ball is now, in
the view of many Delhi-based Indo-Pak watchers, in
Musharraf's court. The steady flow of casualties in J&K is
something the Indian public has learned over time to accept,
for the most part, but massive fatalities in India's "Maximum
City" cannot go unanswered by any government, let alone one
supervising an unsteady coalition. As terrorism expert Ajai
Sahni told us, New elhi wants more than the standard "catch
and release" terrorism round-up of the usual suspects that
has become viewed here as Islamabad's stock reply to
cross-border terrorism. This time, the GOI wants -- and the
PM needs -- real arrests, real prosecutions, and perhaps even
the unthinkable, Pakistani extraditions to India, to prove to
the Indian government that Islamabad is ready to pay more
than lip service to combating terrorism in the region
(Septel).


16. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
PYATT