TERROR ATTACKS IN INDIA LIKELY TO DAMAGE INDO-PAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004989

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IN
SUBJECT: TERROR ATTACKS IN INDIA LIKELY TO DAMAGE INDO-PAK
RELATIONS

REF: A. NEW DELHI 4973M


B. NEW DELHI 4900

Classified By: Charge Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: In addition to the Prime Minister's public
suggestion that Pakistan is behind the July 11 terror
bombings, there is even stronger private Indian suspicion of
a connection between Pakistan and the Mumbai terrorists.
Indian media and conservative think-tanks are almost
unanimous in laying blame for the attacks directly on
Islamabad. Indian police and security forces continue to
sweep up suspected members of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the
Students Islamist Movement of India (SIMI) for questioning.
There is a palpable chill in relations between the two
countries, and the previously scheduled July 21-22 high level
peace-building talks between the two governments is almost
certain to be scrapped in light of recent events. End
Summary.

India's Official Blame
--------------


2. (U) A day after the Mumbai serial blasts, an MEA
spokesman described as "appalling" remarks made by Pakistan
Foreign Minister Kasuri linking the Mumbai attacks and the
slowing pace of Indo-Pak rapprochement. The spokesman told
journalists "His remarks appear to suggest that Pakistan will
cooperate with India against the scourge of cross-border
terrorism and terrorist violence only if such so-called
disputes are resolved." By Thursday the official rhetoric
had escalated, with the Cabinet passing a resolution
condemning the attacks and stating that terrorism would not
be allowed to stand in the way of India's economic growth and
prosperity -- a marked break from official statements after
other attacks over the past year, when the GOI insisted that
terrorism would not be allowed to derail the peace process.


3. (C) Indian media reported that Congress Party sources
said the leadership is disappointed with Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh,s tame address to the nation on July 12, in
which he did not mention Pakistan by name. Minister of State
for External Affairs Anand Sharma was equally cautious in a
July 13 televised statement. By July 14 the line had
hardened. Sharma, in a conversation with Charge, underlined
the GOI resolve to continue pressing on terrorism, and the PM
used a speech in Mumbai to cast blame "across the border."


4. (C) The public faces of India's security services have
been drumming a hard line. Home secretary VK Duggal, when
asked if Pakistan was behind the terrorist strikes, asserted
that such attacks were evidence of sound organizational
backing, support and funding, implying -- but not stating --
that they had state backing. National Security Adviser MK
Narayanan reportedly briefed senior cabinet ministers on the
probe, with the PM present, mentioning phone calls made to
Karachi and Dubai just before and after the blasts.

....And What They're Saying Inside Their Own Corridors
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Indian media reports that Indian intelligence
agencies believe that the Mumbai blasts were likely
perpetrated by the Pakistan-based terrorist group
Lashkar-e-Toiba, acting on the direction of the Pakistani
Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). They are also
widely reporting that the Student Islamic Movement of India
(SIMI) had its members acting as footsoldiers in the attacks.
Just last week, Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that

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infiltration from Pakistan had gone up again, which is
consistent with what we heard from NSA Narayanan and J&K
Police.


6. (C) An Indian press outlet reported prior to the attacks
that on May 9, the Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) of the Mumbai
police intercepted a vehicle on a highway not far from
Mumbai, and arrested three men, who they determined were LeT
operatives. The men reportedly had large quantities of
high-explosive (RDX) and weapons, and they told police
interrogators that they had been trained in Pakistan. The
ATS seized three more explosive and weapons caches in that
region in the following 2 days, totaling 43 kilos of RDX,
which is more than the estimated 37 kilos of RDX used in the
1993 terrorist bombings in Mumbai that killed 257 people.

Kasuri Throwing Gasoline on the Fire
--------------


7. (SBU) Foreign Minister Kasuri's Reuters quote on
Wednesday -- "I think the Mumbai incident, however tragic it
may be, and it is undoubtedly very tragic, underlines the
need for the two countries to work together to control this
environment, but they can only do so if they resolve their
disputes" -- was poorly received by Indian press and pundits.
Islamabad's damage control on Wednesday, that Reuters had
"misreported" Kasuri's remarks -- has done little to mollify
the sentiment on this side of the border. Foreign Secretary
Saran raised the comments pointedly in a July 14 meeting with
visiting UnderSecretary of Defense Krieg.


Anti-Pakistan Reportage Snowballing
--------------


8. (C) After every significant terrorist attack in India,
press reportage of police intercepting/killing terrorists and
uncovering weapons caches spikes. The magnitude of the
Mumbai attacks resulted in a greater groundswell of such
reporting than usual. We present these reports but cannot
corroborate them or comment on their authenticity. Indian
police are normally reticent about discussing ongoing cases,
and the more sensitive the case, the more hesitant they are:

-- Indian police say they recovered Pakistani passports from
some of the suspects swept up in the post-attack dragnets and
also tracked mobile phone calls from the suspects to
Pakistan. One call reportedly made immediately after the
blasts was to a number in Karachi said to be on police watch
lists. Another call was made to Dubai.

-- During a July 13 meeting with Poloffs, known CT hawk Ajai
Sahni unequivocally stated that Pakistan was directly behind
the terrorist attacks on Indian soil, acting through its
sponsored terrorist groups, specifically naming the LeT.
(NOTE: A reported LeT spokesman denied responsibility for the
Mumbai attacks. END NOTE) In a July 13 editorial, he
elaborated: "The needle of suspicion points to two
organizations as the probable architects of the latest
carnage in Mumbai," which he later named as LeT and SIMI.

Expect Indo-Pak Deep Freeze, at Best
--------------


9. (C) Even if the Indian and Pakistani July 20-21 Composite
Dialogue were to go ahead (Reftel B) -- which we consider
unlikely -- the attacks in Srinagar and Mumbai are bound to
lower expectations on both sides to nearly zero. As our
contacts note, the widespread Indian revulsion at the Mumbai

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attacks, and the growing consensus that engaging Musharraf
has "failed," leave no foundation in public opinion for the
Composite Dialogue to move ahead.


Comment
--------------


10. (C) Even before the Mumbai attacks, trust between Delhi
and Islamabad was a rare commodity. India has grown tired of
Pakistan's refrain that CBMs only delay addressing the "core
issue" of Kashmir's status. Post-July 11, reactionaries in
India are viewing a direct cause-and-effect in Pakistan's
posturing and the attacks. Pakistan voicing dissatisfaction
with the Indo-Pak talks, combined with the attacks themselves
and Foreign Minister Kasuri's reported comments in the
aftermath, have all aligned to convince many otherwise
agnostic Indians that the terrorists did not benefit from a
blind Pakistani eye, but from an active Pakistani hand. Many
Indians are being asked to choose between one of two
explanations -- that Musharraf was fully aware of the
terrorists' plans, or that he has become a marginal player in
controlling Pakistan-based jihadis. Neither choice is an
attractive one, and very soon the PM will have to decide
which scenario will guide India's response.
PYATT