TERROR ATTACKS IN INDIA LIKELY TO DAMAGE INDO-PAK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004989 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IN SUBJECT: TERROR ATTACKS IN INDIA LIKELY TO DAMAGE INDO-PAK RELATIONS REF: A. NEW DELHI 4973M ¶B. NEW DELHI 4900 Classified By: Charge Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In addition to the Prime Minister's public suggestion that Pakistan is behind the July 11 terror bombings, there is even stronger private Indian suspicion of a connection between Pakistan and the Mumbai terrorists. Indian media and conservative think-tanks are almost unanimous in laying blame for the attacks directly on Islamabad. Indian police and security forces continue to sweep up suspected members of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the Students Islamist Movement of India (SIMI) for questioning. There is a palpable chill in relations between the two countries, and the previously scheduled July 21-22 high level peace-building talks between the two governments is almost certain to be scrapped in light of recent events. End Summary. India's Official Blame -------------- ¶2. (U) A day after the Mumbai serial blasts, an MEA spokesman described as "appalling" remarks made by Pakistan Foreign Minister Kasuri linking the Mumbai attacks and the slowing pace of Indo-Pak rapprochement. The spokesman told journalists "His remarks appear to suggest that Pakistan will cooperate with India against the scourge of cross-border terrorism and terrorist violence only if such so-called disputes are resolved." By Thursday the official rhetoric had escalated, with the Cabinet passing a resolution condemning the attacks and stating that terrorism would not be allowed to stand in the way of India's economic growth and prosperity -- a marked break from official statements after other attacks over the past year, when the GOI insisted that terrorism would not be allowed to derail the peace process. ¶3. (C) Indian media reported that Congress Party sources said the leadership is disappointed with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh,s tame address to the nation on July 12, in which he did not mention Pakistan by name. Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma was equally cautious in a July 13 televised statement. By July 14 the line had hardened. Sharma, in a conversation with Charge, underlined the GOI resolve to continue pressing on terrorism, and the PM used a speech in Mumbai to cast blame "across the border." ¶4. (C) The public faces of India's security services have been drumming a hard line. Home secretary VK Duggal, when asked if Pakistan was behind the terrorist strikes, asserted that such attacks were evidence of sound organizational backing, support and funding, implying -- but not stating -- that they had state backing. National Security Adviser MK Narayanan reportedly briefed senior cabinet ministers on the probe, with the PM present, mentioning phone calls made to Karachi and Dubai just before and after the blasts. ....And What They're Saying Inside Their Own Corridors -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Indian media reports that Indian intelligence agencies believe that the Mumbai blasts were likely perpetrated by the Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Toiba, acting on the direction of the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). They are also widely reporting that the Student Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) had its members acting as footsoldiers in the attacks. Just last week, Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that NEW DELHI 00004989 002 OF 003 infiltration from Pakistan had gone up again, which is consistent with what we heard from NSA Narayanan and J&K Police. ¶6. (C) An Indian press outlet reported prior to the attacks that on May 9, the Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) of the Mumbai police intercepted a vehicle on a highway not far from Mumbai, and arrested three men, who they determined were LeT operatives. The men reportedly had large quantities of high-explosive (RDX) and weapons, and they told police interrogators that they had been trained in Pakistan. The ATS seized three more explosive and weapons caches in that region in the following 2 days, totaling 43 kilos of RDX, which is more than the estimated 37 kilos of RDX used in the 1993 terrorist bombings in Mumbai that killed 257 people. Kasuri Throwing Gasoline on the Fire -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Foreign Minister Kasuri's Reuters quote on Wednesday -- "I think the Mumbai incident, however tragic it may be, and it is undoubtedly very tragic, underlines the need for the two countries to work together to control this environment, but they can only do so if they resolve their disputes" -- was poorly received by Indian press and pundits. Islamabad's damage control on Wednesday, that Reuters had "misreported" Kasuri's remarks -- has done little to mollify the sentiment on this side of the border. Foreign Secretary Saran raised the comments pointedly in a July 14 meeting with visiting UnderSecretary of Defense Krieg. Anti-Pakistan Reportage Snowballing -------------- ¶8. (C) After every significant terrorist attack in India, press reportage of police intercepting/killing terrorists and uncovering weapons caches spikes. The magnitude of the Mumbai attacks resulted in a greater groundswell of such reporting than usual. We present these reports but cannot corroborate them or comment on their authenticity. Indian police are normally reticent about discussing ongoing cases, and the more sensitive the case, the more hesitant they are: -- Indian police say they recovered Pakistani passports from some of the suspects swept up in the post-attack dragnets and also tracked mobile phone calls from the suspects to Pakistan. One call reportedly made immediately after the blasts was to a number in Karachi said to be on police watch lists. Another call was made to Dubai. -- During a July 13 meeting with Poloffs, known CT hawk Ajai Sahni unequivocally stated that Pakistan was directly behind the terrorist attacks on Indian soil, acting through its sponsored terrorist groups, specifically naming the LeT. (NOTE: A reported LeT spokesman denied responsibility for the Mumbai attacks. END NOTE) In a July 13 editorial, he elaborated: "The needle of suspicion points to two organizations as the probable architects of the latest carnage in Mumbai," which he later named as LeT and SIMI. Expect Indo-Pak Deep Freeze, at Best -------------- ¶9. (C) Even if the Indian and Pakistani July 20-21 Composite Dialogue were to go ahead (Reftel B) -- which we consider unlikely -- the attacks in Srinagar and Mumbai are bound to lower expectations on both sides to nearly zero. As our contacts note, the widespread Indian revulsion at the Mumbai NEW DELHI 00004989 003 OF 003 attacks, and the growing consensus that engaging Musharraf has "failed," leave no foundation in public opinion for the Composite Dialogue to move ahead. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Even before the Mumbai attacks, trust between Delhi and Islamabad was a rare commodity. India has grown tired of Pakistan's refrain that CBMs only delay addressing the "core issue" of Kashmir's status. Post-July 11, reactionaries in India are viewing a direct cause-and-effect in Pakistan's posturing and the attacks. Pakistan voicing dissatisfaction with the Indo-Pak talks, combined with the attacks themselves and Foreign Minister Kasuri's reported comments in the aftermath, have all aligned to convince many otherwise agnostic Indians that the terrorists did not benefit from a blind Pakistani eye, but from an active Pakistani hand. Many Indians are being asked to choose between one of two explanations -- that Musharraf was fully aware of the terrorists' plans, or that he has become a marginal player in controlling Pakistan-based jihadis. Neither choice is an attractive one, and very soon the PM will have to decide which scenario will guide India's response. PYATT