RUMORS OF A THIRD FRONT YET AGAIN MAKE THE ROUNDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 08 NEW DELHI 004202 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR KISL ECON EINV SCUL PREL IN SUBJECT: RUMORS OF A THIRD FRONT YET AGAIN MAKE THE ROUNDS IN DELHI REF: NEW DELHI 3799 Classified By: A/PolCouns Atul Keshap for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. Summary: Congress MP and insider Rashid Alvi told us on June 12 that the party inner circle is concerned that untrustworthy regional allies could defect to the NDA and perhaps make a move to unseat the UPA before the next session of Parliament (currently scheduled for the third week in July). Although such speculation is again making the rounds, we rate the possibility at only 20 percent, if not less. The UPA still has arrows in its quiver to fend off any challenge, and the challengers themselves could at best only form a weak and unstable coalition. However, the RUMINT continues unabated, so we have outlined it in this message to inform Washington audiences of the underlying political reasons why policy decision-making in India is so affected by currents of political intrigue that constantly burble beneath the surface. On June 4, former UP Chief Minister Mayawati commented that &there is political instability in the country8 and the (UPA) government could &collapse before the monsoon session of Parliament over the Office of Profit issue.8 Her remarks can be dismissed as wishful thinking by an out of power politician, but the health of the UPA government is more delicate as a result of the quota controversy, fuel price hikes, and other domestic problems, and some in the UPA are taking such potential challenges seriously. Indian coalition governments have traditionally been shaky and fragile, but the UPA has so far escaped this fate because the Left parties are ideologically committed to keeping the &Hindu fascist8 BJP out of power and have provided crucial and decisive support. However, the return of the Office of Profit Bill by President Kalam (Reftel),and other developments that could affect the UPA's numbers in Parliament have stimulated a host of unsubstantiated rumors that the coalition could be under threat when Parliament reconvenes. This message examines these varied political rumors. End Summary Congress is Worried -------------- ¶2. (C) In a June 12 meeting with Poloff, Congress MP and Sonia Gandhi confidant Rashid Alvi affirmed that the party was concerned that the UPA government could fall before the next Parliamentary session that starts in late July. Alvi maintained that should the Election Commissioner decide to apply the "offices of profit" stipulation of the Constitution, he could seek to disqualify enough UPA and Left Front MPs to eradicate the UPA's majority. Furthermore, he described the President's role as a mere formality, asserting that "Kalam would do nothing that goes against the Constitution." Alvi's assertion reflects Congress worries about the long relationship between President Kalam and Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav, a principal Congress opponent. When Yadav was Defense Minister under the United Front Government of IK Gujral, Kalam was the head of DRDO. Yadav was instrumental in funding Kalam's missile programs and in ensuring a prestigious "Bharat Ratna" medal for Kalam. This prior history has led many to conclude that Kalam maintains a "soft spot in his heart" for Yadav. ¶3. (C) Alvi hypothesized that in such a situation, Yadav's SP and the BJP would immediately cobble together a coalition and approach the President with a request to form the NEW DELHI 00004202 002 OF 008 government. Despite his access to Sonia Gandhi's inner circle, Alvi did not know how Congress is planning to deal with this situation, saying only that his party could dissolve the government and call for new elections before losing its majority, or wait until the BJP/SP arrangement falls apart. Alvi was confident that a BJP/SP government would be short-lived, as the SP cannot afford to remain with the BJP and lose its Muslim vote bank, while the BJP would quickly dump the disreputable and untrustworthy SP and try to form an NDA government. He was confident that Congress could then win another poll and return to power. The UPA,s Popularity Graph Declines -------------- ¶4. (C) Congress has good reason to be worried about its political standing. It recently invited unwanted controversy with its decisions to introduce a quota for Other Backward Class (OBC) candidates in elite educational institutions, and increase petroleum prices, while general price increases and a sinking stock market have angered over 300 million middle class Indians. The pace of second-generation economic reformsremains sluggish. Congress is already afflicted with internal infighting, while it has little chance of reviving in its old bastions of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In the crucial Hindi belt, Congress controls only the smaller states of Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana and Punjab, while the big states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat remain in the hands of the rival BJP and its de-facto allies. Rumblings in the Press -------------- ¶5. (C) Anxiety concerning apparent Congress weakness has now found its way into the press. The "Asian Age" on June 13 and 14 published articles about "Congress Disarray." The "Asian Age" alleged that intra-party infighting and poor relations with UPA allies have left Congress governments "unstable" in Meghalaya, Haryana, Punjab, Uttaranchal, and Maharashtra. The article noted that: --in Meghalaya, 20 Congress MLAs demanded the removal of Chief Minister DD Lapang and were summoned to New Delhi for consultations. --in Punjab, "hundreds of Congress party activists" collected outside the party headquarters to demand the removal of Chief Minister Amarinder Singh, alleging that during his tenure corruption has been allowed to get out of control. --in Haryana, Congress MP Kuldeep Bishnoi has accused Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda of illegally conspiring with Reliance Industries to provide prime real estate to the conglomerate at bargain basement prices. Bishnoi was subsequently called to Delhi to explain himself. --in Maharashtra, Congress has all but severed ties with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) of Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar. --in Uttaranchal, Chief Minister ND Tiwari met with Sonia Gandhi at his own request seeking support against a dissident faction that he claims is plotting to unseat him. NEW DELHI 00004202 003 OF 008 ¶6. (C) The "Asian Age" alleged that Congress disarray, has "restricted the UPA alliance to New Delhi," enabling the Communists to fish in troubled waters and construct defacto alliances with regional parties. In Andhra Pradesh and Assam, the Telegu Desam and CPI(M) are jointly sponsoring the agitation against the UPA fuel price hike and have crafted a joint election strategy to defeat Congress in local elections. In Maharashtra, the NCP has announced that it is no longer bound to support Congress in local elections and will forge alliances with local parties of its choosing. In Bihar elections, Congress supported UPA ally and Cabinet Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, against UPA ally and Cabinet Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav. In UP, the LF has forged anti-Congress alliances with the newly-formed Jan Morcha party, and the ruling Samajwadi Party. Congress Worries Become Public -------------- ¶7. (C) On June 15, the "Hindu" quoted unnamed Congress sources who claimed they were deeply worried that their government in Delhi could fall as a result of the "Office of Profit Act." In Delhi, the BJP sent a petition to the President pointing out that 19 Congress MLAs hold offices of profit and should be disqualified. Should he accept the petition, the Election Commission would then make a determination. If it expelled all 19, Congress would lose its majority, falling to only 28 seats in the 70 member Assembly and its government would fall. A "senior MLA" remarked that Congress would then have no choice but to call for a new election, which he claimed the party would lose, as "the time is not right for the Congress to go into elections." The loss of Delhi would be a serious blow to the party's prestige, especially since Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit has been touted as a Congress superstar. Corporate Support Could Shift -------------- ¶8. (C) Congress is also worried that its corporate backers are losing patience and may be amenable to a shift. The fight among corporate houses to exercise political control, which began in the late eighties, is now an old story. The crass commercialization of politics and the massive funds required to contest elections has increased the role of these big business houses. However, Indian business interests are not ideologically motivated and are willing to provide financial support to any political entity that will help their bottom line. While Mukesh Ambani of Reliance, Ratan Tata of the Tata Group and the Birlas are currently siding with the UPA, Anil Ambani of Reliance Infocom, Subroto Roy of the Sahara Group and Rahul Bajaj of the Bajaj Group are with the NDA. This pattern could shift at a moment's notice if business interests determine that Congress can no longer deliver the goods. An industrialist recently told Poloff that he and his compatriots are not wedded to any party, constantly gauge India's shifting political winds and can effortlessly switch political loyalties. The Role of Rahul -------------- ¶9. (C) Congress-watchers assert that one way to determine the mood within the party is to look at the internal dynamics of the Gandhi family. Another rumor making the rounds is NEW DELHI 00004202 004 OF 008 that Sonia Gandhi is ready to crown her son Rahul as the heir apparent. Some scenarios have him named to a top political position some time in the next two weeks. Such a step would be viewed as a solid indicator that Mrs. Gandhi is confident that Congress will remain in power and will not face a Parliamentary coup or early election. Likewise, if Sonia does not make her move, it will be viewed as an indicator that the she has determined that the UPA's hold on power is shaky and she must focus on fighting serious opposition challenges. UP Politics Affect the Center -------------- ¶10. (C) It is no accident that UP politicians are at the heart of the current rumors. UP is India's largest state and with 80 Parliamentary seats, its biggest prize. UP was once the heartland of the reigning Congress, and its loss to regional parties was a solid indicator of the party's political decline. Until Congress recaptures the state, it cannot feel confident of remaining in power in New Delhi over the long term. At present, Congress is not in the picture in UP and the contest is between former Chief Minister and Dalit leader Mayawati and her deadly rival Mulayam Singh Yadav. They are locked in a "fight to the death" to see who will control Uttar Pradesh (UP),while Congress and the BJP have been sidelined. Most political watchers in UP predict that Mayawati will defeat Yadav in the March, 2007 elections and Congress sees her imminent ascension to power as a possible opening. ¶11. (C) During her previous stint, Mayawati foolishly launched a corrupt scheme to create a "Taj Corridor" project that she hoped would allow her to cash in on the Taj Mahal. She was forced to abandon the project after the extent of the corruption and environmental despoliation became public. To cement her hold on power in UP and stay one step ahead of the law, she must obtain protection from the party in power in New Delhi and has been periodically meeting Sonia Gandhi to scope out a possible political alliance with Congress that would grant her immunity. Most rumors implicate Yadav as a principal plotter attempting to organize a "third front" capable of unseating the UPA before the UP election. Mayawati may have made her dire prediction regarding the UPA's imminent fall to upstage and denigrate her rival Mulayam Singh Yadav and indicate her willingness to work with Congress to destroy him. Her warning may not be totally without foundation. The Mulayam Factor -------------- ¶12. (C) The key player in any opposition move against the UPA, Mulayam Singh Yadav is unprincipled and free of ideology, and epitomizes the unreliable regional mentality. While he is meeting with the BJP and discussing possible plots, he has simultaneously crafted a loose alliance with the Communists and remains close to the CPI(M). Mulayam is thus working with both the Left and the Right to further his own egocentric agenda and is trusted by neither. He is well-aware that Congress could make life very difficult if he plays his hand too early. Congress could use the extensive information it has collected against Mulayam and his henchmen to file legal cases (income tax evasion, embezzlement, misuse of public funds) that could tie them up in the courts for NEW DELHI 00004202 005 OF 008 years to come. Congress could also throw its full weight into an anti-Mulayam alliance with Mayawati and other regional opponents in UP to make it very difficult for him to contest the March 2007 elections. Mulayam could decide that discretion is the better part of valor and concentrate on winning the 2007 UP contest rather than becoming drawn into a risky plot at the Center that could go terribly wrong. Congress Hopes to Close Pandora's Box -------------- ¶13. (C) The "Offices of Profit" statute in the Indian constitution is the basis of the rumored anti-UPA plotting. The statute stipulates that no one can simultaneously be an MP (or MLA) and hold an "office of profit." The statute, in force since the 1950's, has been observed mainly in the breach, and numerous MPs have been appointed to government posts that fall within the statute's purview, with most coming from Congress, the CPI(M) and parties within the UPA. Congress hoped to avoid possible political problems by rushing through its "Offices of Profit Bill" in a special session in May that exempted over 46 MPs holding such office from disqualification. Although passed by Parliament on May 17, the Bill remains ineffective because President Kalam refused to sign it and sent it back to Parliament for re-consideration. ¶14. (C) Congress is scared that the President's return of the "Offices of Profit Bill" for reconsideration will provide an opening for its opponents to cause mischief or even make a move to bring down the UPA government. To head this off, Congress will reintroduce the Bill as soon as Parliament reconvenes in the third week of July. Under the Indian Constitution, the President must sign any bill that Parliament passes a second time. Once a new Bill is passed and signed by the President, this avenue will be closed. Everyone's Playing the Numbers Game -------------- ¶15. (C) However, as long as the "Offices of Profit Bill" is not law, MPs can theoretically be expelled from Parliament, which could benefit the opposition and damage the UPA. The strength of the Lok Sabha is 545. Any coalition or party hoping to form the government must ordinarily control 273 seats. However, since the last Parliamentary election in 2004, 16 seats have become vacant due to deaths and resignations and have not yet been filled, making the present strength of the Lok Sabha 529 seats. Technically, up to 40 MPs could be disqualified in the wake of President Kalam,s return of the controversial Offices of Profit Law. If all 40 were expelled, it would further reduce the strength of the House to 489. Any party or coalition hoping to form the government would then have to control only 245 seats, rather than the usual 273. ¶16. (C) Two-thirds of the MPs facing disqualification under the "Offices of Profit Law" belong to the Communist Party of India (Marxist),the Congress party and UPA coalition partners. The current strength of the opposition BJP in Parliament is 128 seats. With its NDA partners, the total comes to 171. Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) with 41 seats is currently supporting the UPA "from outside." Should it withdraw and elect to support the NDA, the NDA's total would rise to 212 seats, just 33 short of a majority. NEW DELHI 00004202 006 OF 008 Political insiders have determined that in addition to the SP, the following parties currently belonging to the UPA or supporting if from outside could be convinced to join the NDA or support it from outside: the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Janata Dal (Secular) and some independents. Their defection could add as many as 82 seats to the NDA, putting it well over the 245 required to form the government. Should it then become clear that the UPA has lost its Parliamentary majority, the NDA could turn to other regional parties such as Karunanidhi,s Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (16 seats) the Pattali Makkal Katchi (6),Sharad Pawar,s Nationalist Congress Party (10),or Mayawati,s Bahujan Samaj Party (15) to cement its majority further. The Election Commission Holds the Key -------------- ¶17. (C) Our sources claim that some 58 petitions calling for the disqualification of MPs have already been submitted to President Kalam, and he could refer them to the Election Commission (EC) for action at any time. In addition, there are approximately 200 requests for dismissal of MLAs from various states already pending with the EC under the Offices of Profit statute. Some interlocutors are telling us that the disqualification of MLAs holding &offices of profit8 could destabilize up to 10 state governments and compel them to call mid-term elections. ¶18. (C) The rumors circulating in Delhi political circles assert that the fate of the government could be in the hands of the Chief Election Commissioner. Should he choose to issue notices of disqualification to all MPs holding offices of profit, it could upset the balance in the Lok Sabha and provide the NDA with an opening to make its move. Should the Election Commissioner chose to act and disqualifies a significant number of MPs, it would reduce the total strength of the lower house, and the majority threshold, bringing it closer to the NDA,s reach. While there will inevitably be an immediate court challenge, such a development could create a political crisis that might lead to the collapse of the Congress-led UPA or provoke Sonia Gandhi to ask the President to pre-emptively call an early general election. Alternative Coalition Formation -------------- ¶19. (C) Any government formed under this 20 percent likely scenario would be a "Frankenstein's Monster" that would be inherently shaky and unstable. The rumor making the rounds in Delhi political circles asserts that the NDA would entice new parties by offering their leaders the positions of Prime Minister or Deputy Prime Minister. However, BJP leaders are purportedly insisting that LK Advani head any new government, while UP Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav is said to be happy with the Deputy Premier,s post. The participants in such a grouping would be primarily motivated by political ambition and a hatred for Congress rather than shared interests or ideologies. A meeting between Mulayam Singh Yadav and RSS chief Sudarshan several months ago is viewed as an attempt to lay the groundwork for a BJP/SP alliance. Mulayam,s sour relationship with the UPA leadership is now an open secret, with most predicting that it is only a matter of time before he withdraws his party's support from the UPA. Many are saying that the last straw could be Central Tax NEW DELHI 00004202 007 OF 008 Authority raiding of Mulayam and his allies, including sleazy political fixer Amar Singh, financier Subroto Roy, and legendary actor Amitabh Bachan. The powerful Maratha leader and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar,s Nationalist Congress Party,s support to a BJP-Shiv Sena-backed candidate for a Rajya Sabha seat in Maharashtra against the Congress nominee has also led to an acrimonious war of words between Pawar and the UPA, increasing speculation that he too may be contemplating a withdrawal. Pawar has long been on bad terms with Sonia Gandhi and has a barely concealed ambition to become Prime Minister, fueling speculation that he could play a role in an anti-Congress revolt. But Congress Can Still Take Heart? -------------- ¶20. (C) While Delhi rumor-mongers have constructed an elaborate scenario portending the imminent fall of the UPA, it overlooks factors that would make it difficult to pull off. Shortcomings include: --General Election (the nuclear option) -- Sonia Gandhi could determine to call for an early election rather than wait for the government to fall, catching opponents by surprise and providing Congress and its allies with political momentum. --Timing -- Opposition plotters would have to make their move before Parliament reconvenes. It is very difficult to organize such an elaborate scheme with so many moving pieces in a manner of weeks. --Severity -- For the scheme to fructify, the Election Commissioner would have to disqualify a sizable number of UPA and CPI(M) MPs. Should he prove less draconian, or if courts block him, the scheme falls apart. --Procedure -- Even if the EC moves against as many as 40 MPs, they would not have to give up their seats immediately. He could issue the disqualification notices piecemeal over an extended period of time. Many of the MPs are powerful and well-connected and could also use procedural motions and court challenges to delay their departure until after Parliament reconvenes, foiling any opposition plan. --A Congress Pre-emptive Strike -- Congress could head-off opposition plot by convening an early "special session" of Parliament that would quickly pass the bill, prove the coalition's continued viability, and close this avenue. --Unreliable Regionals -- For the plot to succeed, totally unreliable regional parties would have to agree to desert the UPA and switch to the NDA. Such parties could decide at any time that they need UPA support to continue ruling their regional fiefdoms and leave the plotters holding an empty bag. Comment: Turbulence Ahead -------------- ¶21. (C) The rumors of UPA trouble are gaining ground in Delhi's political circles. The Congress leadership is apparently discussing such a possibility behind closed doors, while Mulayam Singh Yadav and his henchmen appear to be secretly meeting with BJP representatives. Congress can take SIPDIS heart from the fact that it would be exceedingly difficult NEW DELHI 00004202 008 OF 008 for the opposition to put together a workable scheme to bring down the wobbly UPA government. The BJP and its allies are also in horrendous shape and may be in no position to take advantage of the short window of opportunity presented by the Offices of Profit controversy. Should opposition schemers fail to make their move before Parliament convenes in late July, Congress will heave a sigh of relief, but will not be out of the woods. All eyes will then turn to the March 2007 elections in UP. Congress performance in this key state will be viewed as the next big indication of the health of the UPA government, but the Congress in UP is weak, in disarray and facing serious challenges. Should Mulayam survive there, he is likely to again turn to plots to unseat the UPA. ¶22. (C) Congress is deathly afraid of a third party challenge for good reason. A third front government would be inherently unstable and unlikely to hold on to power for very long. The advent of another third front could lead to another period similar to the 1989-99 period when India saw a succession of seven short-lived governments that could set back Congress plans indefinitely. Congress fear of such an eventuality explains much of its recent caution regarding economic and foreign policy. ¶21. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD