SIACHEN NOT IN DANGER OF BEING SOLVED, SAY OUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 004005

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2016
TAGS: PREL PINR MOPS PGOV PTER PBTS IN PK
SUBJECT: SIACHEN NOT IN DANGER OF BEING SOLVED, SAY OUR
SOURCES

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3466


B. 05 NEW DELHI 1234

Classified By: DCM Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: A Siachen deal during the May 23-24 talks in
Delhi was never a slam dunk, according to Indian and
Pakistani diplomats who were members of their respective
countries' delegations. Although the atmospherics were
excellent, rumors of a new formulation to break the logjam
were just rumors; both sides relied on formulatons dating
back up to 15 years. Both diplomats told us they expected no
new ideas would surface and that both sides would hew to
their oft-stated positions, and their predictions proved
accurate. End Summary.

"Deja Vu Times 10"
--------------


2. (C) Pakistani High Commission Counselor (Political)
Muhammad Syrus Sajjad Qazi told us that all the atmospherics
for the Siachen talks were excellent, with absolutely no
acrimony or recriminations from either side, but the talks
also featured a dearth of new thinking. All substantial
points -- the GOI insistence on authenticating current troop
positions along the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL),the
GOP stating its concern that the AGPL would eventually
convert into a border -- were delivered within the first
three hours, and the remaining day-and-a-half was an endless
recycling.


3. (C) Even the press RUMINT of a formulation involving
unsigned maps attached as annexes (Ref A) harkens back to the
1992 Siachen talks, Qazi reported; that formulation, he
continued, did not arise during the recent round of talks.
He quoted Pakistan High Commissioner Aziz Ahmed Khan, who has
been in most of the 10 rounds of Siachen talks (as
Minister-Counselor in Delhi, as DG/South Asia in Islamabad,
and as High Commissioner for the three rounds of Siachen
talks since the Composite Dialogue resumed in 2004): "Dj vu
is when you witness the same event twice, these talks were
dj vu times ten."

Pakistanis Knew Deal was Not in Sight ...
--------------


4. (C) Qazi claimed that, after reading the
anti-Siachen-deal commentary in Indian papers, General JJ
Singh's remarks in the "Indian Express," and Defense Minister
Mukherjee's hard line on Siachen in Parliament, and accepting
the other political brushfires the UPA is coping with (Ref
A),they were not surprised that the talks closed without a
deal. "We would have been more surprised if there had been
an agreement," he concluded.

... As Did the GOI
--------------


5. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha on June 6 told us he also went into this round of
talks not expecting a deal on Siachen. He reiterated the GOI
mantra that authenticating the AGPL was a carved-in-stone
Indian prerequisite to demilitarization. Sinha, who was part
of the Indian delegation to the Siachen (and most Composite
Dialogue) talks, extrapolated that any Indo-Pak territorial
agreement (to include demarking the border and maritime

NEW DELHI 00004005 002 OF 002


boundary along Sir Creek) is, by its zero-sum nature,
politically difficult.

Comment: Deal not Dead, but Siachen Slumbers
--------------


6. (C) As these latest meetings illustrate, the Indian and
Pakistani Foreign Ministries rarely produce fresh thinking or
breakthroughs. Neither we nor our interlocutors rule out a
"rabbit out of the hat" breakthrough on Siachen, but we note
that such a maneuver would be likely tied to a major
political event like a PM Singh trip to Pakistan -- witness
the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus announcement that capped Natwar
Singh's 2005 visit to Islamabad (Ref B). It is far less
likely that a pathbreaking deal could emerge out of
structured talks headed by senior civil servants and military
officers, given the political sensitivities that have
surrounded the Siachen issue.


7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD