AGAINST BACKDROP OF KASHMIR TERROR, HURRIYAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003549

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR PBTS MOPS KISL PK IN
SUBJECT: AGAINST BACKDROP OF KASHMIR TERROR, HURRIYAT
REJECTS DIALOGUE WITH PRIME MINISTER

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Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. Summary: Terrorists killed seven and injured scores more
in a spectacular mid-day May 21 attack on a Congress party
rally in downtown Srinagar. The next day, even as more
grenades exploded in Srinagar, the peaceful separatist All
Party Hurriyat Conference led by Mirwaiz Omar Farooq rejected
an invitation to meet with the Prime Minister during his
planned May 24 visit to Srinagar. The Prime Minister is
being urged by political parties across the spectrum to stick
with plans to meet a roundtable of J&K state activists in an
effort to continue Delhi's dialogue process and defy
terrorists. The Hurriyat's rejection of dialogue with
Manmohan Singh -- who was amenable to any formula that would
allow them to participate -- will further dilute their eroded
standing in Kashmir. The terrorists are also diminishing
what little support they had left with their brutal tactics,
even as they try to undermine the PM's efforts at dialogue.
The latest outrage in Kashmir will arm Delhi security hawks
who doubt the wisdom of Manmohan Singh's Pakistan outreach
strategy. End Summary.

TERRORISM CONTINUES UNABATED
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2. (SBU) Terrorism in Kashmir has re-started with a bang now
that snows are melting and mountainous infiltration routes
are passable. Following the massacre of 35 Hindus in Doda
April 30/May 1, terrorists dressed as Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)
state police sprayed bullets at a crowd participating in a
Congress party rally in downtown Srinagar on May 21, killing
seven and wounding dozens more, including a very senior
police official who is a key EMBASSY contact. The Sunday
attack on a major rally commemorating Rajiv Gandhi's death
anniversary, played out all across India on live TV on
several news networks, reminding the Delhi security
establishment and Indians of all walks of life that terror
still has not dissipated from the Kashmiri political scene.


3. (C) Security sources later claimed the assailants were
likely members of Lashkar-e-Tayiba or Al Mansoorian. One
police contact told us the terrorists were not/not J&K police
officers, although they were dressed as such. We also
checked on the health of our key contact, Inspector General

K. Rajinder, whose daughter told us the bullet wounds in his
leg would heal. We are now following up to find out how such
an egregious security breach occurred at a rally at which
Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad had been just about to
participate (he missed the shooting because he decided at the
last moment to have a bite to eat prior to joining the
rally).

"IT'S THE ISI"
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4. (SBU) The May 21 attack follows a series of grenade
attacks in the Valley in the past week that has injured
dozens. The latest attacks occurred May 22, injuring five in
various locales of Srinagar. Authorities have also raided LeT
hideouts and seized explosives and weapons, which suggests
more attacks were in the pipeline. The rising crescendo of
terrorist strikes follows a relatively quiet winter, and
seemingly corresponds with the snow melt and consequent rise
in infiltration. Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee was plain

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about the possibility of ISI involvement when he told a
reporter May 22 that "maybe" it was involved. Added
Mukherjee, "In order to frustrate the peace process,
terrorists want to demonstrate to the world that they exist.
It's high time Pakistan stopped aiding and abetting them."

THE HURRIYAT DRAWS THE WRONG LESSON...
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5. (C) May 21 is a day full of import for the moderate
Hurriyat, because Mirwaiz' uncle was murdered on that day in
1990, while Bilal and Sajjad Lone's father was killed on May
21, 2001. Considering how close the Chief Minister came to
being killed on May 21, 2006, and their own families'
sacrifices for the cause, the Mirwaiz Hurriyat could have
used the terrorists' actions as a justification for going
ahead and meeting the Prime Minister on May 24 in Srinagar.
Unfortunately, the Hurriyat announced May 22 it would not
attend the Prime Minister's roundtable, dealing a blow to PM
Singh's dialogue effort. In the end, it may very well have
been the fear of themselves being killed that also stayed
their hands.

...AND ITS INFLUENCE WANES
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6. (C) The real reason for the Hurriyat's decision, we are
told, is a threat from the mainstream National Conference of
Omar Abdullah to quit the roundtable talks if the Hurriyat
were given a separate meeting with the PM -- which had been
planned as the face-saving way out for both the GOI and the
Hurriyat. With the National Conference flexing its muscles
following its strong showing at the April 24 by-elections and
in the face of a deepening split between Congress and PDP
over a sex scandal, the GOI was in a bind: lose Omar
Abdullah or lose the Hurriyat. In the end, the PM could not
afford to alienate a mainstream party and its elected Members
of Parliament. Journalists in Srinagar said that the Home
Ministry was still pressing for a separate meeting for the
Hurriyat, but the National Conference had made the cost of
such a meeting much higher than anyone in Delhi was prepared
to pay. The upshot for the Hurriyat is that it reinforced
its image as a talking shop with no proven constituency. And
now, the talking shop has offended its most important
interlocutor, the PM.

TERRORISTS THE ONLY WINNERS
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7. (C) COMMENT: The only winners in this latest round of
Kashmir intrigues are the terrorists. They scared the heck
out of the Congress, the PM, and the Chief Minister, proved
that VIP security in Srinagar is weak, soured the mood on the
eve of the PM's roundtable talks, and further polarized
Kashmiris. The Prime Minister's dialogue with the Hurriyat
is on hold for the foreseeable future, and their absence from
the roundtable process may not give Kashmiris confidence.
Meanwhile, the National Conference has cut the Mirwaiz
Hurriyat down at least a couple of notches. For the PM and
his relentless vision for peace with Pakistan, these
developments will be a discouragement. For his opponents in
Delhi, the last 48 hours' events prove their contention that
peace with Pakistan is folly as long as Pakistan launches
proxy war against India using terror. With Siachen talks

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starting again May 23, the current political climate makes it
harder for Manmohan Singh to make any concessions to
Pakistan. In that regard, the terrorists and the people who
orchestrate their bloody acts have succeeded famously. END
COMMENT.
MULFORD