POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT TO NEPAL VITAL,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 003433

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PHUM PTER AORC ECON EPET MASS KDEM IN NP
SUBJECT: POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC SUPPORT TO NEPAL VITAL,
SAYS INDIA

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3382


B. KATHMANDU 1248

C. KATHMANDU 1251

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (U) This is an ACTION REQUEST for G, IO and USUN. Please
see paragraph 10.


2. (C) Summary: The international community needs to
provide full diplomatic and political support to the
Government of Nepal (GON) and be ready to provide aid when
requested, MEA Joint Secretary (North) Pankaj Saran told PDAS
(SCA) Donald Camp and PolCouns on May 17. UN cease-fire
monitoring in Nepal is not required at this stage, but could
be an option in the future, if requested by the GON. Saran
stated that other priorities for the GON should be to ensure
the cease-fire holds and agreeing to a code of conduct with
the Maoists. He commented that the transition in Nepal since
April 30 has worked out well and the country has avoided
problems, but cited the intransigence the Maoists as the
principle obstacle to a lasting solution. The political
transition needs to have a legal basis and the GON must be
able to show sound reasoning for taking actions in o2der to
avoid future conflict, Saran warned. The GOI has also
suggested the GON not alienate the police and army in order
to avoid "fighting two fronts at one time." Extortion by the
Maoists continues, particularly of Indian citizens and joint
ventures in Southern Nepal. The GON should not be too hasty
in releasing Maoist prisoners before negotiations begin,
Saran suggested. He noted that the GOI has promoted the UN
Democracy Fund with Nepalese civil society groups and
believes there are numerous opportunities for projects in
Nepal if the submission deadline is extended. End Summary.

International Support for the SPA
--------------


3. (C) Diplomatic and political support from the
international community for the SPA is crucial at this stage
of the political transition in Nepal in order to foster a
strong and united front in the face of the Maoists and the
monarchy, Saran told PDAS Camp and PolCouns on May 17.
Noting that the GON had not requested any type of aid from
India, he suggested that the international community wait for
a request from the civilian government before sending
assistance, especially military items. Military sales at
this juncture would only complicate the discussions between
the GON and the Maoists, possibly making it less likely the
Maoists would agree to turn in their weapons, and creating
unnecessary pressure for the GON to "give something" to the
Maoists. Camp agreed the US, too, would wait for the
civilian government to approve military assistance for the
army. Regarding UN involvement in monitoring the cease-fire,
Saran argued that it would be best to see how the new
government handles the situation. "Until the GON requests
international monitors, let's leave that question open,"
Saran stated.

Cease-Fire and the Code of Conduct
--------------


4. (C) The two most pressing issues for the GON are
ensuring the cease-fire holds and that an acceptable code of
conduct is agreed upon by the government and the Maoists. He
noted that, rather than relying on the UN to monitor the
cease-fire, the best way to ensure that peace holds is by
building greater trust between the government and the army.

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He argued that earlier cease-fires had failed because there
were too many players willing to sabotage the peace for
political goals. Saran also commented that the GON and
Maoists must quickly implement a code of conduct to manage
the cease-fire.

A Good Start, But Maoists a Problem
--------------


5. (C) The political process during the three weeks since
the King stepped down "has worked out well," Saran commented,
while identifying the attitude of the Maoists as the
principle near-term challenge. The nomination of Prime
Minister Koirala and the election of CPN-UML member Subas
Chandra Nemwangas as Speaker of House of Representatives on
May 13 (Ref B) has demonstrated the SPA can work together.
He also remarked that a proposal he had seen for expanding
the cabinet included adding two members from the smaller
parties, demonstrating that the Nepali Congress will allow
other parties to play a larger role. However, Saran
predicted that the GON still had a number of "difficult days
ahead." The 10-point declaration by the Maoist (Ref C) is
something we need to watch, Saran warned, as some parts are
not as innocuous as they may look. Citing the Maoist calls
to disband the current government before other institutions
are in place, he questioned why the Maoists would want to do
so. These type of questions will cause problems because the
Maoists, government and monarchy still look at each other
with a great deal of suspicion.


6. (C) The political transition must have a legal basis and
the government needs to be able to provide sound reasons for
the decisions it makes, Saran asserted. The GOI has
"forcefully" informed the GON that if they deviate from the
constitution they should be prepared to defend their actions,
he reported.

Do Not Alienate the Army
--------------


7. (C) The GOI also warned the GON not to take action that
would alienate the police and the army, according to Saran.
Reminding the political leadership in Kathmandu that they do
not want to "fight on two fronts," he suggested that it make
decisions that would keep the military leadership on its
side. Regarding the suspension of a number of RNA security
chiefs (Ref D),Saran opined that the removals should not
cause long-term problems for the GON, as the positions were
filled by other officers. The GOI had been worried by
initial reports that the new government also intended to sack
RNA Chief General Thapa. The appointment of long-time RNA
officers into the vacant slots should reassure the army that
the civilian government is not looking to target it further,
Saran claimed.


8. (C) The transition of the Royal Nepal Army to a national
army under the authority of the government, not the King,
would be an important step. Saran commented that having the
army answer to the National Defense Council (NDC),made up of
the Prime Minister, Defense Minister and the Army Chief of
Staff, would be one option. He indicated that having the
NDC be in charge of the military would likely improve the
public's perception of the army.

Extortion Continue
--------------


9. (C) Saran reported that extortion in the border regions

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continues, with Indian citizens and joint ventures being the
victims. Accordingly, he noted that the GON should be wary
of releasing too many Maoist prisoners before serious
negotiations begin, because they will need as many bargaining
chips as possible. Regarding Maoists incarcerated in Indian
jails, Saran indicated that the GOI has "no intention of
releasing them and privately told the GON not to press the
issue."

ACTION REQUEST: UN Democracy Fund
--------------


10. (C) Saran suggested Nepal would be an excellent place to
utilize the UN Democracy Fund and noted the GOI had
introduced the idea to civil society groups there. However,
the deadline for calls for proposals is now closed, and Saran
asked whether there was scope for an extension. ACTION
REQUEST: Can the deadline be extended to allow Nepal-based
NGOs access to the program? Saran's enthusiasm for utilizing
this channel represents another step forward in our democracy
partnership, and a potentially fruitful avenue for pursuing
our shared objectives in Nepal. END ACTION REQUEST.


11. (U) PDAS Donald Camp has cleared this cable.


12. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD