Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI3382
2006-05-16 12:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
GOI FAVORS NEPAL CEASE-FIRE MONITORING UNDER UN
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003382
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER AORC ECON EPET MASS KDEM IN NP
SUBJECT: GOI FAVORS NEPAL CEASE-FIRE MONITORING UNDER UN
UMBRELLA
REF: KATHMANDU 1251
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003382
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER AORC ECON EPET MASS KDEM IN NP
SUBJECT: GOI FAVORS NEPAL CEASE-FIRE MONITORING UNDER UN
UMBRELLA
REF: KATHMANDU 1251
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
1. (C) Summary: Noting that that India does not want to be
unilaterally involved in maintaining the peace in Nepal, MEA
Under Secretary (Nepal) Manish Gupta indicated on May 16 that
the GOI would not oppose UN involvement in monitoring the
cease-fire between the Maoists and Government of Nepal. The
British High Commission provided a readout of their May 12
meeting with Special Advisor to the UN Undersecretary General
for Political Affairs Tamrat Samuel, who reported that MEA
Joint Secretary (North) Pankaj Saran told him the GOI
envisioned the cease-fire monitoring being conducted by
"national actors under a UN umbrella." Accordingly, Samuel
understood that the GOI ruled out any role for the UN in
formal mediation, but would acquiesce to targeted and
technical UN cease-fire monitoring by the Office of the UN
High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). MEA's Gupta
noted it will be important for the Seven Party Alliance (SPA)
to "bargain as a united front with the Maoists," in order
effectively to counter their "more unreasonable demands."
Echoing Foreign Secretary Saran's comments on the dire
economic situation in Nepal, Gupta proffered that the
economic indicators do not look good, and worried how the GON
would meet its recurring expenditures. Gupta remarked that
the GOI has yet to provided assistance to the new government,
as it is waiting for a formal request. End Summary.
GOI: The UN Role in Nepal
--------------
2. (C) The GOI is not looking to be uni|aterally involved in
maintaining the peace in Nepal and would not oppose UN
involvement in monitoring the cease-fire between the Maoists
and Government of Nepal, MEA Under Secretary (Nepal) Manish
Gupta told us on May 16. According to our interlocutors at
the British High Commission, MEA Joint Secretary (North)
Pankaj Saran told UN Special Advisor Tamrat Samuel that the
GOI favored a the cease-fire monitoring operation conducted
by "national actors under a UN umbrella." The UK readout
noted that Saran ruled out any role for the UN in formal
mediation, but was noncommittal on the UN being a third-party
witness to the talks. Samuel told the British he took this
as Indian acquiescence to targeted and technical UN
cease-fire monitoring by OHCHR with a possible further UN
role in election monitoring and arms management. Gupta
commented to poloff that "it is for the GON and UN to decide
how to structure the details of the monitoring operations."
Political Machinations
--------------
3. (C) MEA's Gupta remarked that it is important that the
cease-fire monitoring agreement allow the GON to negotiate
from a position of strength, as the Maoists will use any
perceived weakness to their advantage. For this reason, the
GOI believes it essential that the SPA demonstrate unity when
negotiating with the Maoists.
4. (C) Regarding the 10 point road map released by the
Maoists on May 13 (reftel),Gupta remarked that a
step-by-step process is needed to resolve the political
problems in Nepal, but indicated that dissolving the House of
Representatives before another government is formed is not a
good idea. Postulating that the proposed constituent
assembly elections would be eight to twelve months away, he
argued that a hasty disbanding of the current government
NEW DELHI 00003382 002 OF 002
would be detrimental to a lasting solution.
Economic Concerns
--------------
5. (C) Nepal is facing serious economic problems and will
soon be unable to pay its reoccurring expenditures, Gupta
predicted. He commented that recent economic indicators "do
not look good," with the economy likely growing at only about
one percent in 2006. MEA also predicted that fertilizer
supply problems will result in food shortages later in the
year. He highlighted that with the forecasted poor harvest
and the lack of any government program to deliver emergency
food aid, a serious food shortage may occur. To date, the
GON has not requested economic assistance from the GOI, Gupta
noted, however, New Delhi would likely respond positively
when formally asked.
6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER AORC ECON EPET MASS KDEM IN NP
SUBJECT: GOI FAVORS NEPAL CEASE-FIRE MONITORING UNDER UN
UMBRELLA
REF: KATHMANDU 1251
Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)
1. (C) Summary: Noting that that India does not want to be
unilaterally involved in maintaining the peace in Nepal, MEA
Under Secretary (Nepal) Manish Gupta indicated on May 16 that
the GOI would not oppose UN involvement in monitoring the
cease-fire between the Maoists and Government of Nepal. The
British High Commission provided a readout of their May 12
meeting with Special Advisor to the UN Undersecretary General
for Political Affairs Tamrat Samuel, who reported that MEA
Joint Secretary (North) Pankaj Saran told him the GOI
envisioned the cease-fire monitoring being conducted by
"national actors under a UN umbrella." Accordingly, Samuel
understood that the GOI ruled out any role for the UN in
formal mediation, but would acquiesce to targeted and
technical UN cease-fire monitoring by the Office of the UN
High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). MEA's Gupta
noted it will be important for the Seven Party Alliance (SPA)
to "bargain as a united front with the Maoists," in order
effectively to counter their "more unreasonable demands."
Echoing Foreign Secretary Saran's comments on the dire
economic situation in Nepal, Gupta proffered that the
economic indicators do not look good, and worried how the GON
would meet its recurring expenditures. Gupta remarked that
the GOI has yet to provided assistance to the new government,
as it is waiting for a formal request. End Summary.
GOI: The UN Role in Nepal
--------------
2. (C) The GOI is not looking to be uni|aterally involved in
maintaining the peace in Nepal and would not oppose UN
involvement in monitoring the cease-fire between the Maoists
and Government of Nepal, MEA Under Secretary (Nepal) Manish
Gupta told us on May 16. According to our interlocutors at
the British High Commission, MEA Joint Secretary (North)
Pankaj Saran told UN Special Advisor Tamrat Samuel that the
GOI favored a the cease-fire monitoring operation conducted
by "national actors under a UN umbrella." The UK readout
noted that Saran ruled out any role for the UN in formal
mediation, but was noncommittal on the UN being a third-party
witness to the talks. Samuel told the British he took this
as Indian acquiescence to targeted and technical UN
cease-fire monitoring by OHCHR with a possible further UN
role in election monitoring and arms management. Gupta
commented to poloff that "it is for the GON and UN to decide
how to structure the details of the monitoring operations."
Political Machinations
--------------
3. (C) MEA's Gupta remarked that it is important that the
cease-fire monitoring agreement allow the GON to negotiate
from a position of strength, as the Maoists will use any
perceived weakness to their advantage. For this reason, the
GOI believes it essential that the SPA demonstrate unity when
negotiating with the Maoists.
4. (C) Regarding the 10 point road map released by the
Maoists on May 13 (reftel),Gupta remarked that a
step-by-step process is needed to resolve the political
problems in Nepal, but indicated that dissolving the House of
Representatives before another government is formed is not a
good idea. Postulating that the proposed constituent
assembly elections would be eight to twelve months away, he
argued that a hasty disbanding of the current government
NEW DELHI 00003382 002 OF 002
would be detrimental to a lasting solution.
Economic Concerns
--------------
5. (C) Nepal is facing serious economic problems and will
soon be unable to pay its reoccurring expenditures, Gupta
predicted. He commented that recent economic indicators "do
not look good," with the economy likely growing at only about
one percent in 2006. MEA also predicted that fertilizer
supply problems will result in food shortages later in the
year. He highlighted that with the forecasted poor harvest
and the lack of any government program to deliver emergency
food aid, a serious food shortage may occur. To date, the
GON has not requested economic assistance from the GOI, Gupta
noted, however, New Delhi would likely respond positively
when formally asked.
6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD