MEA POSITIVE ON PAK, AFGHANISTAN, TURKMENISTAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 NEW DELHI 003334

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DOE FOR DAS DAVID PUMPHREY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PTER PREL MOPS EPET EAID PBTS PINR ENRG EWWT
IN, PK, AF, IR, TI, TX
SUBJECT: MEA POSITIVE ON PAK, AFGHANISTAN, TURKMENISTAN,
NEGATIVE ON IRAN

REF: A. NEW DELHI 3304

B. NEW DELHI 3270

C. NEW DELHI 2998

D. NEW DELHI 2967

E. NEW DELHI 1611

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Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: A senior MEA official told us Indo-Pak
people-to-people links continue to proliferate, with a recent
Pakistan Peoples' Party delegation visiting India and the
prospect of a PM Singh visit to Pakistan this summer. The
Composite Dialogue continues, with some hope for a tangible
deliverable on the Sir Creek border dispute, but a Siachen
deal may remain out of reach this round. Cross-LoC
infiltration is down (for now) but terrorist infrastructure
remains, and Indian press reports linking Tehran and
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba are troubling, if true. The
Iran-Pakistan-India natural gas pipeline is moving at a
snail's pace, and Delhi is considering joining the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan project (but only pending
satisfactory answers to many GOI questions). Tehran
continues to present obstacles as the GOI works to complete
the Zaranj-Delaram road project; at issue is if the obstacles
are bureaucratic or political. An Indian role in developing
Chabahar Port (in Iran) also appears to be grinding down.
The GOI is boosting security assistance to Kabul, and (along
with Indian firms) is increasingly concerned over the safety
of Indian nationals working in Afghanistan and recent media
reports that the beheading of an Indian telecoms engineer
there was carried out on orders from Pakistani intelligence.
End Summary.

Pakistan: Proliferation of Political Visits
--------------


2. (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran)
Dilip Sinha on May 11 reviewed with PolCouns and Poloff the
current key issues between India and her three western
neighbors. Sinha remarked that he kept busy with the
"proliferation of meetings" on Indo-Pak issues, the latest
being the delegation from Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples'
Party headed by PPP/Punjab President (and 1984 Olympic Hockey
gold medalist) Qasim Zia (Ref A). The PPP delegation asked
for the visit, and their warm reception in Delhi (including a
lunch hosted by Minister of State for External Affairs E.
Ahamed and a dinner with BJP former Foreign Minister Jaswant
Singh) was another step in the normalization process. This
reciprocated the warm reception extended by Pakistan to
visits over the past year by Jaswant and LK Advani, among
others, he continued. Sinha reflected on the PPP's electoral
strength and was upbeat on the prospect of a PPP government
after the Pakistani elections set for 2007.


3. (C) Sinha was reluctant to comment on the prospect of PM
Singh visiting Pakistan this summer (Ref E) except to echo
the PM's own statements that the visit should yield a
substantial outcome, and that it was to reciprocate Pakistan

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President Musharraf's hosting the PM in April 2005.

Composite Dialogue: Keeping Expectations in Check
-------------- --------------


4. (C) To PolCouns' query on prospects for the Indo-Pak
Composite Dialogue talks, Sinha remarked that he had heard
rumors of GOP receptivity to demarcating the Actual Ground
Position Line in Siachen, but he noted that similar rumors
had floated prior to the previous round of Siachen talks as
well. "There is no question of a deal without
authentication," he stated. (NOTE: Defense Minister Pranab
Mukherjee in a written response to a Parliamentary question
on May 11 replied that "There is no decision at present to
pull out troops from Siachen area. India's position on this
issue is that authentication of the presently held positions
has to be the first step before any redeployment of troops is
considered." End Note.) Demarcating Sir Creek is "certainly
do-able" because joint teams had been able to survey a
significant amount of the area under dispute, leaving only
the boundary near the shoreline to be resolved at the
political level.


5. (U) The schedule for the remaining Composite Dialogue
meetings is as follows:

-- Demilitarization of Siachen Glacier, May 23-24, New Delhi

-- Demarcating the boundary along Sir Creek, May 25-26, New
Delhi

-- Terrorism and Drug Trafficking, May 30-31, Islamabad

-- Promotion of Friendly Exchanges, June 1-2, New Delhi

-- Foreign Secretaries Meeting, July 20, New Delhi

-- Foreign Ministers Meeting, July 21, New Delhi

-- Plenary Session of the Joint Commission and Foreign
Ministers Review Meeting, July 22, New Delhi

Infiltration Down (So Far),Terror Camps Remain
-------------- --


6. (C) On cross-LoC terrorist infiltration, Sinha assessed
that the numbers were down this year "but that is due to our
own efforts" such as the LoC fence. "The camps are back,
however," he asserted, referring to terrorist training camps
in Pakistani Kashmir. "Their network in India is also good,
including outside J&K," Sinha continued. (NOTE: Defense
Minister Pranab Mukherjee, speaking on May 9 after a day-long
visit to the two massacre-hit villages in Doda, Jammu (Ref
C),reiterated to reporters the GOI,s call for Pakistan
President Musharraf to live up to his promise not to let
Pakistani territory be used by terrorists, claimed the GOI
had evidence of 59 terrorist training camps operating in
Pakistani Kashmir, and called on Islamabad to eradicate those

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camps. End Note.)

Iran Terror Link Troubling if True
--------------


7. (C) Sinha told PolCouns he did not have any further
information on recent Indian press reports that two alleged
Lashkar-e-Tayyiba operatives arrested in Delhi on May 8 had
exfiltrated India through Pakistan, transited to Bangladesh,
and re-infiltrated through Iran and then Pakistan into India,
except to reiterate that the GOI has for years been saying
that jihadis are increasingly infiltrating through Bangladesh
vice Pakistan. PolCouns underlined the high-level interest
in corroborating (or disproving) an Iran-LeT link; Sinha
responded he would look into the matter. (NOTE: We have also
flagged the alleged Iran-LeT connection to the Americas desk
and with our counterterrorism POC in the
Disarmament/International Security Division, and will report
any response Septel. End Note.)

Iran Pipeline Still Beset By "Imponderables"
--------------


8. (C) Sinha was downbeat on the prospects for the
Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, which he described as beset by
"too many imponderables" that had not yet been answered,
including gas pricing, project finance, and technology
issues. The May 1-2 Delhi visit of Iranian Deputy Petroleum
Minister Mohammad Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian did not resolve any
of these, and Iran's reneging on the pricing deal for an
existing long-term contract to provide five million metric
tons of natural gas per year (to take advantage of rising
market prices) "makes things worse," he added. (NOTE: The
Indian, Pakistani and Iranian Petroleum Secretaries are
scheduled to meet May 22-23 in Islamabad to address these
issues in advance of a June meeting in Tehran, according to
Indian press. End Note.) Sinha allowed that the talks were
"still preliminary" but he thought they were "not getting
anywhere" despite what he perceived as Iranian haste to lock
in a deal and begin construction. Sinha concluded by noting
that "we need the gas, but not at the prices Iran is now
asking."

Mixed Signals on Iranian Cooperation on Zaranj-Delaram
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Sinha described the progress on the Zaranj-Delaram
Afghan road project as good but added that problems continue
to crop up on procuring and transporting diesel and cement
through Iran. It was "hard to tell if the problems are
structural (to Iran's bureaucracy) or political ("sending us
a message"),he added. He would not predict if Iranian
cooperation would improve or decline.

Persian Port Headache Also Looming
--------------


10. (U) These are not the only points of friction in the

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Iran-India relationship. "Hindu" Diplomatic Correspondent
Amit Baruah in a May 14 assessment of Indo-Iranian relations
("Partnership with Iran in Trouble") noted the difficulty
India faces in helping develop Iran's Chabahar Port. The
port could be used to feed water-borne cargo into the
Zaranj-Delaram road for transit into Afghanistan and Central
Asia, but Baruah reported that a "leading Indian company" had
backed out of the project. The report quoted anonymous GOI
officials who dismissed it as a "pipe dream."

Not Yet Convinced on TAP(I)
--------------


11. (C) Sinha reported the GOI is still deciding whether to
join the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan natural gas
pipeline project. High on the positive side of the GOI's
ledger, he listed the value of joining a "sanctions-free"
project; however, he balanced this with several negatives,
including concerns over the level of Turkmen gas reserves
(saying "we have no information at all") and the equally
harsh physical and political terrain which bedevils the IPI
project (i.e. Afghanistan and Balochistan). (NOTE: MEA Joint
Secretary (Eurasia) Jaimini Bhagwati exhibited a similar

SIPDIS
skepticism in a May 10 meeting with PolCouns (Ref B) that
Central Asian energy projects, including the TAPI pipeline,
still need to be "fully costed out" and reviewed by GOI
technical experts. End Note.)

Kabul-Pul-e-Khumri Power Line Work Resuming
--------------


12. (C) Work on the Kabul-Pul-e-Khumri power line has
resumed with the return of warm weather, Sinha reported.
PolCouns noted that a Tadjik hydel project appeared designed
to feed into the emerging regional power grid through
northern Afghanistan. Sinha replied that Pakistani
participation would be key for the creation of a successful
regional grid.

GOI Security Assistance to Afghanistan ...
--------------


13. (C) A GOI security assistance package for the Afghan
National Army -- helmets and body armor -- "will probably be
a grant, because the cost is comparatively small," Sinha
reported. The package would be obtained through the Indian
Army's existing procurement process, he added.

... And Indian Security Concerns In Afghanistan
-------------- --


14. (C) Sinha relayed to PolCouns that some Indian firms
that were considering contracts for Afghan projects are
thinking twice or even pulling out in the wake of the
Suryanarayana murder. He added that the visible wounds on
the body indicated Suryanarayana was executed and then
disfigured, and not shot during an escape attempt as the
Taliban had claimed. Sinha expressed his concern that

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Suryanarayana was killed just a few hours after the Taliban
issued their ultimatum (for all Indian nationals to leave
Afghanistan),and that the execution was carried out on
orders from Pakistan, and by a group other than the one that
originally kidnapped the engineer, according to GOI
information. (NOTE: Regional news outlets have been
replaying the May 12 claim by an unnamed Taliban commander in
Zabol, Afghanistan, that Suryanarayana was decapitated under
instructions from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
Directorate. End Note.)


15. (C) Sinha explained the additional $50 million the GOI
pledged to Afghanistan in April was primarily earmarked for
cost overruns on existing projects, including funding
additional security in the wake of the April 30 beheading of
Indian mobile phone engineer K. Suryanarayana by the Taliban
(Ref D).

"Are the Taliban Terrorists?"
--------------


16. (C) Responding to a question, PolCouns and Poloff
reassured Sinha on the legal status of the Taliban in the
USG's eyes by pointing out that the organization is under
sanction by US domestic efforts (including E.O. 13224) and
our obligations under UNSCR 1267 -- which together permit the
USG to freeze/seize Taliban assets, bar Taliban travel
through the US, and prohibit providing weapons to the group
-- despite their notable absence from the "Country Reports on
Terrorism." PolCouns and Poloff assured Sinha we would keep
him informed of USG action against the Taliban.

Comment: Forward Progress Across the Board
--------------


17. (C) There was little surprising here, in part for
seasonal factors: both major construction projects in
Afghanistan and terrorist infiltration across the LoC depend
on warm weather, which is only now arriving to those parts of
South Asia. A Sir Creek deal with Pakistan would be
important in resolving a territorial issue, and could help
start momentum toward helping both sides address tougher
territorial issues (Siachen and Kashmir). The intricacies of
multi-lateral energy deals work on their own calendars. The
most sensitive (and time-sensitive) concerns remain related
to jihadi terrorism, which restricts the size and speed of
India's Afghan reconstruction efforts and threatens to bog
down (or potentially set back) Indo-Pak rapprochement. That
all this progress and activity with Pakistan, Afghanistan,
and Turkmenistan has become routine is a measure of how far
we have come with India and how far India has gone to
transform its regional relations. We were most intrigued to
hear India reveal an Iran link to terror here, as well as the
trust gap on energy and other projects with Tehran. We hope
that gap will widen even as the trust gap with Pakistan
shrinks.


18. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:

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(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD