STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS MOSTLY A VOTE FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003271

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IN
SUBJECT: STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS MOSTLY A VOTE FOR THE
STATUS QUO

REF: A. NEW DELHI 2983

B. CHENNAI 926

C. CHENNAI 873

D. CALCUTTA 5/11 SEPTEL

Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary: The outcome of State Assembly elections was
largely as anticipated (Ref A),with the Left Front (LF)
retaining power in West Bengal and unseating Congress in
Kerala, while Congress held on to power in Pondicherry, and
in a coalition in Assam (Details Refs C and D). The only
real change to the status quo could come from Tamil Nadu,
where the DMK victory may lead to a coalition government with
Congress. A joint DMK/Congress government in Tamil Nadu
could convince M. Karunanidhi to end his flirtation with a
third front, causing the third front option to recede. The
big loser was the BJP, which was defeated everywhere.
Although the Left (and to a lesser degree) Congress are
jubilant about their success, the status quo will continue in
New Delhi. The LF has nowhere to go and must continue to
support the UPA, while Congress must continue to endure
sniping and opposition from the Communists. With the BJP
almost out of the picture, the Left will remain, ironically,
the UPA's principal opposition. This could impede the
flourishing US/India relationship, as Congress will remain
constrained by this unusual arrangement with the Communists.
This situation cannot change until there is a new
parliamentary election with the possibility that Congress
could win an absolute majority in Parliament. End Summary.

A Lack of Suspense
--------------


2. (U) On May 11, the Election Commission announced the
results of State Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, West
Bengal, Assam, Pondicherry, and Kerala. The results were
evident well before May 11, confirming exit polls, common
political wisdom and our handicapping (Ref A). Sonia Gandhi
won re-election to her Lok Sabha seat by the biggest victory
margin ever (just short of 500,000 of the less than 600,000
votes cast). The CPI(M) and its allies scored another
decisive victory in West Bengal and the CPI(M) dominated
coalition (the LDF) unseated a Congress-dominated coalition
in Kerala (Refs C and D). Congress did not win an outright
majority in Assam, but is likely to form a coalition
government there. Congress will retain power in tiny
Pondicherry. In Tamil Nadu, M. Karunanidhi's DMK is set to
form the government. It is still not clear whether the DMK
will be able to rule alone or in a coalition with Congress.

The Winners and Losers
--------------


3. (C) Congress, the LF and the DMK are jubilant. Congress
is set to retain power in Assam and Pondicherry. Its loss in
Kerala was expected but the defeat was less severe than it
anticipated. Overall Congress is counting its blessings, as
it has held its own in West Bengal, Kerala, and Pondicherry,
and lost some seats but not the government in Assam. The
Tamil Nadu outcome is an unexpected plus for the party, which
could join the government for the first time in 30 years and
gain a valuable inroad in South India. The LF, as expected,
is trumpeting its victories in its "red forts" of West Bengal
and Kerala. In West Bengal, Congress remained largely
stagnant, while the Communists made gains against their
arch-rival, the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee.
Continuing its steady and unremitting decline, the BJP did

NEW DELHI 00003271 002 OF 002


badly everywhere, although these were not states where it
derives much support. They wee not a major player in this
election, but their electoral performance was worse than
expected, and will likely increase the perception that the
party is down for the count. BJP leaders tried to put the
best possible face on defeat, saying that they are set for a
major revival next year, but for now have few takers.

How Does It Impact the National Equation?
--------------


4. (C) The outcome in Tamil Nadu (Ref C) has the most
implications for the UPA. If the DMK forms a coalition
government with Congress or even relies on its outside
support, it will tie that party tighter into the UPA
coalition. DMK leader Karunanidhi had been flirting with
Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Uttar Pradesh regional Samajwadi
Party and there was talk that the DMK and SP could form the
nucleus of a "third front" that could eventually displace the
UPA in New Delhi. Should Karunanidhi rule together with
Congress in Tamil Nadu, he will likely back away from his
third front flirtation, so as not to endanger his rule. The
DMK is a regional party and its principal concern is holding
power in Tamil Nadu. This could be good news for Congress as
talk of a third front formation could recede.

Left Stuck in a Loveless Marriage
--------------


5. (C) The LF, despite its victories in West Bengal and
Kerala, still has no choice but grudgingly to back the UPA,
especially if the third front option recedes. Communist
leaders have proclaimed in recent weeks that a good showing
at the polls will strengthen their position and lead them to
press the UPA on the Common Minimum Program and the GOI's
pro-US foreign policy. While they may ratchet up the level
of rhetoric, we anticipate a continuation of the status quo.
The UPA will rely on the Communists to retain power, and the
Communists, despite their persistent quarrels with Congress,
will not pull the plug on the UPA.

What Does it Mean for the US?
--------------


6. (C) The election has not changed India's present
political trends. The BJP continues to decline and is less
and less effective as the opposition party. The LF has moved
to fill the vacuum and acts as the de facto opposition party,
while propping up the UPA government. With the right of
center party ineffective, it is now a contest between two
left of center parties. The LF will continue to act as a
left-wing pressure group to put a brake on many UPA policies,
including the progress of the India/US relationship. This
fundamental dynamic will not change until there is a new
Parliamentary election, due by 2009.


6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD