STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS MOSTLY A VOTE FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003271 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IN SUBJECT: STATE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS MOSTLY A VOTE FOR THE STATUS QUO REF: A. NEW DELHI 2983 ¶B. CHENNAI 926 ¶C. CHENNAI 873 ¶D. CALCUTTA 5/11 SEPTEL Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The outcome of State Assembly elections was largely as anticipated (Ref A),with the Left Front (LF) retaining power in West Bengal and unseating Congress in Kerala, while Congress held on to power in Pondicherry, and in a coalition in Assam (Details Refs C and D). The only real change to the status quo could come from Tamil Nadu, where the DMK victory may lead to a coalition government with Congress. A joint DMK/Congress government in Tamil Nadu could convince M. Karunanidhi to end his flirtation with a third front, causing the third front option to recede. The big loser was the BJP, which was defeated everywhere. Although the Left (and to a lesser degree) Congress are jubilant about their success, the status quo will continue in New Delhi. The LF has nowhere to go and must continue to support the UPA, while Congress must continue to endure sniping and opposition from the Communists. With the BJP almost out of the picture, the Left will remain, ironically, the UPA's principal opposition. This could impede the flourishing US/India relationship, as Congress will remain constrained by this unusual arrangement with the Communists. This situation cannot change until there is a new parliamentary election with the possibility that Congress could win an absolute majority in Parliament. End Summary. A Lack of Suspense -------------- ¶2. (U) On May 11, the Election Commission announced the results of State Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Pondicherry, and Kerala. The results were evident well before May 11, confirming exit polls, common political wisdom and our handicapping (Ref A). Sonia Gandhi won re-election to her Lok Sabha seat by the biggest victory margin ever (just short of 500,000 of the less than 600,000 votes cast). The CPI(M) and its allies scored another decisive victory in West Bengal and the CPI(M) dominated coalition (the LDF) unseated a Congress-dominated coalition in Kerala (Refs C and D). Congress did not win an outright majority in Assam, but is likely to form a coalition government there. Congress will retain power in tiny Pondicherry. In Tamil Nadu, M. Karunanidhi's DMK is set to form the government. It is still not clear whether the DMK will be able to rule alone or in a coalition with Congress. The Winners and Losers -------------- ¶3. (C) Congress, the LF and the DMK are jubilant. Congress is set to retain power in Assam and Pondicherry. Its loss in Kerala was expected but the defeat was less severe than it anticipated. Overall Congress is counting its blessings, as it has held its own in West Bengal, Kerala, and Pondicherry, and lost some seats but not the government in Assam. The Tamil Nadu outcome is an unexpected plus for the party, which could join the government for the first time in 30 years and gain a valuable inroad in South India. The LF, as expected, is trumpeting its victories in its "red forts" of West Bengal and Kerala. In West Bengal, Congress remained largely stagnant, while the Communists made gains against their arch-rival, the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Banerjee. Continuing its steady and unremitting decline, the BJP did NEW DELHI 00003271 002 OF 002 badly everywhere, although these were not states where it derives much support. They wee not a major player in this election, but their electoral performance was worse than expected, and will likely increase the perception that the party is down for the count. BJP leaders tried to put the best possible face on defeat, saying that they are set for a major revival next year, but for now have few takers. How Does It Impact the National Equation? -------------- ¶4. (C) The outcome in Tamil Nadu (Ref C) has the most implications for the UPA. If the DMK forms a coalition government with Congress or even relies on its outside support, it will tie that party tighter into the UPA coalition. DMK leader Karunanidhi had been flirting with Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Uttar Pradesh regional Samajwadi Party and there was talk that the DMK and SP could form the nucleus of a "third front" that could eventually displace the UPA in New Delhi. Should Karunanidhi rule together with Congress in Tamil Nadu, he will likely back away from his third front flirtation, so as not to endanger his rule. The DMK is a regional party and its principal concern is holding power in Tamil Nadu. This could be good news for Congress as talk of a third front formation could recede. Left Stuck in a Loveless Marriage -------------- ¶5. (C) The LF, despite its victories in West Bengal and Kerala, still has no choice but grudgingly to back the UPA, especially if the third front option recedes. Communist leaders have proclaimed in recent weeks that a good showing at the polls will strengthen their position and lead them to press the UPA on the Common Minimum Program and the GOI's pro-US foreign policy. While they may ratchet up the level of rhetoric, we anticipate a continuation of the status quo. The UPA will rely on the Communists to retain power, and the Communists, despite their persistent quarrels with Congress, will not pull the plug on the UPA. What Does it Mean for the US? -------------- ¶6. (C) The election has not changed India's present political trends. The BJP continues to decline and is less and less effective as the opposition party. The LF has moved to fill the vacuum and acts as the de facto opposition party, while propping up the UPA government. With the right of center party ineffective, it is now a contest between two left of center parties. The LF will continue to act as a left-wing pressure group to put a brake on many UPA policies, including the progress of the India/US relationship. This fundamental dynamic will not change until there is a new Parliamentary election, due by 2009. ¶6. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD