INDIAN MUSLIMS AND CONGRESS NERVOUS OVER U.S. IRAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 003199 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2016 TAGS: KDEM KISL PGOV PINR PREL SCUL IN IR SUBJECT: INDIAN MUSLIMS AND CONGRESS NERVOUS OVER U.S. IRAN POLICY REF: NEW DELHI 2867 NEW DELHI 00003199 001.2 OF 005 Classified By: DCM Bob Blake Jr., for reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: A cross-section of Indian Muslims have told Poloff in recent weeks that Indian Muslim opinion, both Sunni and Shia, is opposed to Washington's policy on Iran's nuclear program and that Indian Muslims would --as they did for Iraq in 2003-- likely peacefully take to the streets in large numbers to protest an American military strike against Iran. Other Muslims, however, say Iran is just a diversion from their community's real problems. Although Muslim interlocutors have ruled-out violence and terrorism, they assert that Indian Muslims would likely accuse Congress and the UPA government of getting too close to Washington and its "anti-Islamic" foreign policies and make their anger felt in the polling booth. A US move against Iran could compel some Muslim voters to desert Congress and turn to regional parties that threaten Congress political chances in key states, such as Uttar Pradesh (UP),and in Parliament. Viewing the Muslim "vote bank" as crucial, Congress could move quickly to condemn a military strike, express solidarity with aggrieved Indian Muslims and distance the GOI from Washington, said a knowledgeable insider. Despite its principled anti-Iran stance in the IAEA, the Congress Party (and by extension) India will seek to balance maintaining support for Iran abiding by its international obligations, and maintaining US Congressional support for the proposed nuclear deal, with opposition to military action that could damage the Congress Muslim vote bank. Post will engage Urdu editors to explain US policy. End Summary. Iran Keeps Coming Up -------------- ¶2. (C) Indian Muslims have expressed great interest in the contentious relations between the US and Iran and the possibility of a military clash over Iran's purported nuclear weapons program. During a 19-21 trip to Uttar Pradesh (UP) and subsequent meetings in Delhi, Muslim interlocutors repeatedly brought up the issue with Poloff and appeared to be following it very closely. This is also apparent in a survey of the Urdu language press, which is read almost exclusively by Muslims and is influenced by cash distributed by the Iranian Embassy. Unlike newspapersQublished in Hindi �00A;and English, Urdu papers have been publishing almost blow by blow coverage of the Iran nuclear issue and almost daily editorials strongly slanted against US policy. Urdu Newspapers Have Their Own Slant -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Urdu newspapers have largely taken a pro-Iran, anti-US slant on the Iran nuclear issue. For example, the May 1 editorial in the leading Urdu daily "Siasat" accused the US of "casting a wistful eye on Iran," having "made up its mind to target Iran on one pretext or the other." According to "Siasat," the US has "used the IAEA," just as it "had also used the UN in the case of Iraq." On April 28, "Siasat" described the Iranian stance as "reasonable and lawful," and declared that "no country can be deprived of its lawful right to meet its energy needs. ¶4. (SBU) In its April 28 editorial another Urdu paper "Qaumi Awaz" described the UN and Security Council as "inert and inactive organizations" that "cannot take any decision NEW DELHI 00003199 002.2 OF 005 without the prior permission of America." It described President Bush as "an uncontrolled fascist dictator," who is "pushing the entire planet into a quagmire of death and destruction." The newspaper speculated that although India will try to amicably solve the issue, "it will cut no ice, because the international dictator neither holds any reverence for world opinion nor gives any importance to the UN." ¶5. (SBU) "Rashtriya Sahara" a virulent critic of US policy, exclaimed that the US "has miserably failed to prove that Iran's nuclear plan is meant for producing nuclear weapons." It accused the US of making "a malicious effort to satisfy its cherished desire to subjugate Iran by hook or by crook," stating that "the US wants to realize its age-old dream of subjugating Iran. It plundered Afghanistan and Iraq and now Iran is the target of American imperialism." Post will engage Urdu editors to correct misperceptions and explain USG objectives in Iran. Which Finds A Ready Audience In Rural India -------------- ¶6. (C) While in Uttar Pradesh (UP),Poloff spoke with a cross-section of Muslim opinion leaders who are well-connected with the rural population that dominates the state. They maintained that UP Muslims believe that US foreign policy is "anti-Muslim" and are receptive to a pro-Iran, anti-US message. They agreed that Muslims have united in their opposition to the US Iran policy, as they believe that the US is creating anti-Iran hysteria prior to an invasion and draw parallels with the period just before US forces entered Iraq. Interlocutors stated that the Iran issue could cause a significant shift in Muslim voting behavior, as Muslims vent their hostility against Congress over the Iran issue. In their view, the UPA's increasingly close relationship with the US has compelled the GOI to take anti-Iran, pro-Israel and pro-US positions that are unpopular with Muslims. The timing of the Iran issue is also unfortunate, as it comes on the heels of the Danish cartoon controversy and the destruction of Shia shrines in Iraq that encouraged tens of thousands of UP Muslims to participate in anti-US rallies and demonstrations during the visit of President Bush. They concluded that Muslim suspicion of the US has started to cross-over into the Hindu population. A Shia Intellectual Speaks Out -------------- ¶7. (C) Prominent Shia intellectual Ibne Hasan told Poloff on April 19 that Lucknow Shias followed President Bush's statements on Iran with great interest, especially his exclamation that "all options are open." He confirmed that the issue was widely covered in Lucknow's Urdu press and that Muslims have pressured the GOI to distance itself from the US position. According to Hasan, Prime Minister Manmohan's Singh's widely publicized remark that "India cannot tolerate another nuclear weapons state in the region," was not well-received by Lucknow Muslims, who believed it went "too far" and that the PM has become a "stooge of the US." In Hasan's estimation, US damage to Shia shrines in Iran would "set off a conflagration," and warned that the current government in Iran is capable of damaging the shrines itself to unite Muslim opinion behind it. Acknowledging that Shias believe Iranian President Ahmadinejad is "unstable," Hasan lamented that this "plays into the hands of US extremists NEW DELHI 00003199 003.2 OF 005 looking for an excuse to attack Iran." A View From Mumbai -------------- ¶8. (C) Urdu journalist and poet Hasan Kamal, based in Mumbai, told Poloff on May 4 that US Iran policy has overcome the deep divide between Sunnis and Shias in India and united them around a common anti-US platform. He maintained that while all Indian Muslims oppose a US attack on Iran, they are completely disassociated from the violence found among extremist Muslims in other countries and are "disinterested" in jihad and terrorism. He predicted that massive and immediate street protests, coupled with a change in voting behavior, would follow any American strike. Currently, both Congress and regional parties court the Muslim "voting bloc," Hasan pointed out After an Iran attack, he predicted that Muslims would desert Congress in those states where there is a regional alternative (such as UP). In states with a straight BJP/Congress split (such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh),the deep Muslim antipathy against the BJP would compel them unhappily to remain with Congress. A Delhi Muslim Chimes In -------------- ¶9. (C) On May 5, Delhi-based Islamic activist and scholar Rashid Shaz agreed with other interlocutors that Indian Muslims view the US foreign policy agenda as inherently "anti-Muslim." He decried to Poloff that the Indian Muslim's "mythical mind," coupled with the Islamic tendency to gravitate to "messianic politics," made them "easily influenced," as their "rationality disappears." The belief that "Allah is on their side" compels the Indian Muslim to make wrong decisions and back the wrong horse, and Shaz predicted they will do so again when it comes to Iran, where Admadinejad is infused with a messianic spirit that Muslims find appealing. Shaz claimed that his Arab contacts have informed him that Saudi Arabia is working "behind the scenes" to get Iran to "see reason" and defuse the issue through "back-channel diplomacy." Barelvis Don't Care About Iran -------------- ¶10. (C) Two prominent Barelvi Muslim leaders presented a more moderate picture of Muslim attitudes, making it clear to Poloff that they were not concerned about Iran and were tired of calls for Muslims to take to the streets to protest US policy. Qari Mian Mazhari, a prominent journalist and community leader called the Iran issue a "distraction" from the real priorities of development and community uplift. He urged Congress to focus on providing economic benefits to Muslims, saying such a program would mute potential protests. Mazhari noted that it is counterproductive for Indian Muslims to strongly identify with anti-Americanism, as "52 out of 55" Muslim countries maintain friendly ties with the US." Barelvi cleric Sahabuddin Razvi was adamant that Indian Muslims, heavily influenced by Sufism, are largely uninterested in protests and violence, endorse cooperation, and would like to see Iran and the US come to a peaceful resolution of their dispute. He predicted that few Barelvis (India's largest Muslim sect) would protest an Iran attack. Congress Ready to Cave? NEW DELHI 00003199 004.2 OF 005 -------------- ¶11. (C) Saying "it is an issue of survival for Congress," party MP and Sonia Gandhi confidant Rashid Alvi pointed to his party's limited maneuvering space, noting that it enjoys only a two seat advantage over the opposition BJP in Parliament, and that the withdrawal of support to the UPA government by the UP's Samajwadi Party (40 seats) and/or the Left Front (60 seats) over the Iran issue would be cataclysmic. Alvi maintained that the numbers prevent Congress from publicly backing the US when it comes to military action against Iran. Like other Indian Muslims, he believed that his community was united against the US policy on Iran and would move in a bloc against Congress if it too openly supported Washington. Alvi predicted that Congress would move quickly to distance the UPA government from the US if it attacked Iran, issuing a strongly worded protest, expressing strong support for India's Muslims and moving very cautiously against expected Muslim demonstrations. The Iraq Precedent -------------- ¶12. (C) The reaction of Indian Muslims to US military action against Iraq serves as a useful precedent as to what to expect on the Iran issue. Indian Muslims, regardless of sect, were uniformly opposed to the US Iraq policy and many took to the streets to express their outrage as soon as military action was initiated. The Muslims quickly found support from the Indian Left, which characterized US Iraq policy as part of a broader "imperialist" and "anti-Islamic" drive. After Congress joined the protests, Indian supporters of the US were isolated and largely powerless. The Iraq experience solidified Muslim opinion in the belief that US foreign policy is inherently biased against Muslims and reinforced their willingness to take to the streets again over the Iran issue. Just as was the case with Iraq, we can expect India's Communist and Left parties, joined by Congress and regional parties to support Muslim demonstrations and organize their own. Comment: Foreign Policy Intersects with Domestic Politics -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) The pro-Iran lobby within the greater Muslim community has taken maximum advantage of the emotive nature of the Iran issue for the Indian Muslim. Although most Indian Muslims do not follow the intricacies of the Iran issue, the consensus is that they harbor strong feelings that Iran is being bullied by the US, which they believe is pursuing an "anti-Islamic" agenda around the world. Thousands of Indian Muslims have demonstrated against the US regarding alleged desecration of the Qu'ran, revelations of torture at Abu Ghairib prison in Iraq, and the treatment of Muslim detainees at Guantanamo. A military strike against Iran could potentially dwarf these issues and provide a major cause celebre to those Muslim leaders bent on mobilizing Muslims against the US. Alvi is probably correct when he asserts that Congress has already decided not to stand up to Muslim outrage by publicly supporting any US military action on Iran, despite the fact that Congress has already maintained a principled stance against Iran at the IAEA in the face of Muslim opposition. Given the domestic stakes, we expect Congress to exercise maximum caution in balancing its Muslim vote bank and its need for Congressional support on the nuclear deal. NEW DELHI 00003199 005.2 OF 005 ¶14. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD