Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06NEWDELHI3050
2006-05-04 08:40:00
SECRET
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
INDIAN SPECIAL ENVOY PROPOSES WAY FORWARD IN NEPAL
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003050
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN SPECIAL ENVOY PROPOSES WAY FORWARD IN NEPAL
TO A/S BOUCHER
REF: NEW DELHI 2609
Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 003050
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN SPECIAL ENVOY PROPOSES WAY FORWARD IN NEPAL
TO A/S BOUCHER
REF: NEW DELHI 2609
Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Indian Special Envoy to Nepal Dr. Karan
Singh told visiting SCA A/S Richard Boucher and NSC Senior
Director Elisabeth Millard that he believes that the Nepalese
political situation remains very fragile, and that it is
uncertain who will lead the political process forward should
current PM Koirala's health fail. Dr. Singh also stated that
while the disarmament of the Maoists will be a very difficult
process, it - nor the constituent assembly - can be delayed
due to the extreme fragility of the Nepalese polity.
Finally, Dr. Singh thanked the U.S. for supporting India as
the lead country in resolving the Nepal crisis. END SUMMARY.
SEVEN PARTY UNITY ALLIANCE STABLE, BUT LEADERSHIP UNCERTAIN
-------------- --------------
2. (S) Indian Special Envoy to Nepal Dr. Karan Singh met on
May 3 with Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian
Affairs Richard Boucher, Ambassador David Mulford, and NSC
Senior Director Elisabeth Millard. Dr. Singh commented how
close the political situation in Nepal came to a populist
revolution, with the king reinstating Parliament only hours
before crowds were set to storm the royal palace, in a
"Ceaucescu-like situation". Dr. Singh believes that the
Seven Party Alliance (SPA) will hold together, but he was not
certain who would ultimately lead it forward, since
recently-anointed Prime Minister Girja Prasad Koirala's
health is failing, and Koirala has asked former Prime
Minister Deuba to take his place if his health fails. Dr.
Singh went on to state that the two Congress parties (Nepali
Congress and Nepali Congress (D)) should merge to form one
party, with former PM Deuba as the Deputy or Prime Minister.
UML leader Madan could be another candidate for succession
should Koirala's health fail.
MAOISTS MUST DISARM
--------------
3. (S) Any political settlement must also include the
disarmament of the Maoists, Dr. Singh asserted. Yet, how to
proceed and verify this will be a "ticklish question".
However, the GOI is clear that the Maoists must disarm. A/S
Boucher and the Ambassador noted that this will be a
contentious and lengthy process, citing the IRA experience in
Ireland. Dr. Singh responded that the Nepalese situation is
much too fragile for lengthy delays - and that a new
constituent assembly will have to be seated by no later than
one year from now.
KING (AND SON) SHOULD KEEP QUIET OVER COMING MONTHS
-------------- --------------
4. (S) Dr. Singh believes that the Constituent Assembly
elections will not take place before October or November,
since preparation of electoral rolls and the monsoons will
cause delays. Dr. Singh commented that the king is too weak
to interfere with the processes already underway, and
therefore there is no urgency to pass a constitutional
amendment immediately to eliminate any potential royal
interference with republican processes. Dr. Singh thought
that a constitutional monarchy could still be a possibility,
barring any bad behavior by the palace over the next several
months. The king was personally told by Dr. Singh to send
NEW DELHI 00003050 002 OF 002
his eldest son abroad for at least six months in order to
prevent any further incidents which might incite public
outrage. Dr. Singh noted that the king's son is extremely
reckless and has killed several citizens in drug and
alcohol-induced car accidents. Dr. Singh went on to state
that if there are no further reprehensible incidents
involving the king or his son, a constitutional monarchy
could still be on the table at the constituent assembly - an
arrangement that India would prefer. Lastly, Dr. Singh
concluded the conversation by thanking the U.S. for
supporting India as the lead country in resolving the crisis.
A/S Boucher noted that India performed a function that no
one else could, and deserves credit for its role in resolving
the matter.
5. (U) Ambassador Boucher cleared this cable prior to its
transmission.
MULFORD
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR IN
SUBJECT: INDIAN SPECIAL ENVOY PROPOSES WAY FORWARD IN NEPAL
TO A/S BOUCHER
REF: NEW DELHI 2609
Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)
1. (C) SUMMARY: Indian Special Envoy to Nepal Dr. Karan
Singh told visiting SCA A/S Richard Boucher and NSC Senior
Director Elisabeth Millard that he believes that the Nepalese
political situation remains very fragile, and that it is
uncertain who will lead the political process forward should
current PM Koirala's health fail. Dr. Singh also stated that
while the disarmament of the Maoists will be a very difficult
process, it - nor the constituent assembly - can be delayed
due to the extreme fragility of the Nepalese polity.
Finally, Dr. Singh thanked the U.S. for supporting India as
the lead country in resolving the Nepal crisis. END SUMMARY.
SEVEN PARTY UNITY ALLIANCE STABLE, BUT LEADERSHIP UNCERTAIN
-------------- --------------
2. (S) Indian Special Envoy to Nepal Dr. Karan Singh met on
May 3 with Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian
Affairs Richard Boucher, Ambassador David Mulford, and NSC
Senior Director Elisabeth Millard. Dr. Singh commented how
close the political situation in Nepal came to a populist
revolution, with the king reinstating Parliament only hours
before crowds were set to storm the royal palace, in a
"Ceaucescu-like situation". Dr. Singh believes that the
Seven Party Alliance (SPA) will hold together, but he was not
certain who would ultimately lead it forward, since
recently-anointed Prime Minister Girja Prasad Koirala's
health is failing, and Koirala has asked former Prime
Minister Deuba to take his place if his health fails. Dr.
Singh went on to state that the two Congress parties (Nepali
Congress and Nepali Congress (D)) should merge to form one
party, with former PM Deuba as the Deputy or Prime Minister.
UML leader Madan could be another candidate for succession
should Koirala's health fail.
MAOISTS MUST DISARM
--------------
3. (S) Any political settlement must also include the
disarmament of the Maoists, Dr. Singh asserted. Yet, how to
proceed and verify this will be a "ticklish question".
However, the GOI is clear that the Maoists must disarm. A/S
Boucher and the Ambassador noted that this will be a
contentious and lengthy process, citing the IRA experience in
Ireland. Dr. Singh responded that the Nepalese situation is
much too fragile for lengthy delays - and that a new
constituent assembly will have to be seated by no later than
one year from now.
KING (AND SON) SHOULD KEEP QUIET OVER COMING MONTHS
-------------- --------------
4. (S) Dr. Singh believes that the Constituent Assembly
elections will not take place before October or November,
since preparation of electoral rolls and the monsoons will
cause delays. Dr. Singh commented that the king is too weak
to interfere with the processes already underway, and
therefore there is no urgency to pass a constitutional
amendment immediately to eliminate any potential royal
interference with republican processes. Dr. Singh thought
that a constitutional monarchy could still be a possibility,
barring any bad behavior by the palace over the next several
months. The king was personally told by Dr. Singh to send
NEW DELHI 00003050 002 OF 002
his eldest son abroad for at least six months in order to
prevent any further incidents which might incite public
outrage. Dr. Singh noted that the king's son is extremely
reckless and has killed several citizens in drug and
alcohol-induced car accidents. Dr. Singh went on to state
that if there are no further reprehensible incidents
involving the king or his son, a constitutional monarchy
could still be on the table at the constituent assembly - an
arrangement that India would prefer. Lastly, Dr. Singh
concluded the conversation by thanking the U.S. for
supporting India as the lead country in resolving the crisis.
A/S Boucher noted that India performed a function that no
one else could, and deserves credit for its role in resolving
the matter.
5. (U) Ambassador Boucher cleared this cable prior to its
transmission.
MULFORD