LEFT'S BARK WORSE THAN ITS BITE AS ITS NOSTRILS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000291

SIPDIS

WHITE HOUSE FOR HAGIN, NSC FOR HAINES

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON OVIP ASEC IN
SUBJECT: LEFT'S BARK WORSE THAN ITS BITE AS ITS NOSTRILS
FLARE OVER POTUS VISIT



1. (SBU) Summary: Leftist groups in India plan to protest
President Bush's impending visit in order to rally the
faithful prior to State elections in Communist strongholds
and in the hope of intimidating the ruling United
Progressive Alliance (UPA) into limiting economic reforms
and de-emphasizing relations with the United States.
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) leaders have also
made highly inflammatory remarks against President Bush,
referring to him at times as a leader of "killers" and "war
criminals." The CPM and its leftist allies are threatening
to organize large protests against the President's visit, to
include attempts to block his movements and boycott any
possible joint session of Parliament. However, the
Communists have limited support comprising at most
approximately eight percent of the national popular vote;
are concentrated in a few States, notably West Bengal,
Kerala and Tripura (two of which have elections in early
2006); and have only a smattering of supporters in other
areas. Moreover, when the Left protested US-India joint air
force exercises in late 2005, most protestors were of the
"rent a mob" variety and seemed distinctly ideologically
uncommitted. The Left's bark is far worse than its bite.
In addition, the PM is personally committed to the success
of the President's visit. Just as they did for the air
exercise, the GOI, which is better able than almost any
government to handle vast crowds, will ensure that
sufficient security is provided to the President and that
protestors will be kept well away from his events, so they
will not be disrupted. While unlikely to disrupt the
Presidential visit, Leftist leaders will be very vocal in
making derogatory remarks against the President and, in the
States where they have sufficient numbers (none of which is
on the Presidential itinerary),will conduct large rallies
of potentially thousands of protesters against the visit.
The Left's extortionist tactics in protesting the
Presidential visit typify their lack of constructive ideas,
are unlikely to impact he GOI's efforts at closer relations
with the US, and ultimately, may only serve to help them win
state contests in their remaining strongholds. The
Ambassador has written the Chief Minister of West Bengal to
protest his remarks about the President and point out that
such vitriol will undercut the CM's efforts to attract US
business to West Bengal (full text para 7). End Summary.

YANKEE GO HOME!
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2. (SBU) At a January 2 gathering in Delhi of the CPM,
Communist Party of India (CPI) and other affiliated leaders,
the Leftist parties outlined their campaign strategy for May
State elections in West Bengal and Kerala. One strategy
identified was to protest the upcoming visit of President
Bush to India. CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat said
that India's Left parties would organize demonstrations
across the country for the visit to protest the United
State's "hegemonistic" policies. He added that protest
would be held "everywhere he (the President) goes." CPM
West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee went
further by personalizing the rhetoric in describing
President Bush as a "leader of the world's largest killing
gang" (Reftel). The Left also say they will boycott any
possible Presidential speech to the Parliament.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR THE LEFT?
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3. (SBU) The Left is motivated to attack the President and
his visit to rally the cadre for the May 2006 State
elections in Kerala and West Bengal but more importantly, to
create leverage in seeking to limit the UPA's agenda for
economic reform and closer relations with the US. While not
part of the ruling UPA coalition, the support of the 70
Leftist MPs is required for the UPA to remain in power. The
Left have successfully used the leverage inherent in the
present political arrangement to delay or temper the UPA's
plans to open economic sectors for Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI),reduce subsidies and to privatize public
corporations, although the UPA continues its reform-minded
policies. The threat of disruptions to the important
Presidential visit serves as a form of extortion for the
Left in extracting further concessions from the UPA, and
comes as yet another classic piece of Indian political
theater.

THE MOUSE THAT ROARED

NEW DELHI 00000291 002 OF 003


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4. (SBU) The Leftist numbers in India, in relative terms,
are not large for a country of over a billion people. They
constitute approximately 8 percent of the population. The
largest Leftist party, CPM, has approximately 900,000 card-
carrying members. The Communist labor wing, Center for
Indian Trade Unions (CITU) has a membership of around 15
million people. In addition, most Left supporters are
concentrated in States far from any proposed Presidential
itinerary, to include the States of West Bengal, Kerala and
Tripura. Leftist numbers are limited in the New Delhi
capital district, although approximately 20,000 CITU members
work in the neighboring industrial Gurgaon district. The
GOI, which has long experience in handling the largest
crowds in the world, can be expected to take decisive action
to prevent any demonstrators disrupting the President's
events during his visit. The GOI showed strong resolve
against the CPM and Leftists in November when the Left
promised to block the joint air force training exercise in
Kalaikunda Airfield, West Bengal. CPM officials said that
over 100,000 cadres would block access to Kalaikunda. At
that time, the GOI interceded to ensure full security, the
protests were limited, and the training was conducted
successfully. We later read anecdotal reports in the
newspapers that at most 10,000 protested at the airfield,
and most of those were farmers paid to wave the red banner
and chant slogans whose meanings they did not understand.
Such "rent a mob" tactics are common in India.

RHETORICAL LIONS
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5. (SBU) While lacking the wherewithal to disrupt the
Presidential visit, the Left can generate highly
inflammatory rhetoric and public scenes where they have a
strong majority, such as in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura.
Although we have no means of verifying the numbers quoted,
newspapers reported "over one million" Leftist supporters
joined a January 8 rally in Calcutta to kick-off the CPM
campaign for the West Bengal State elections. This
traditional Leftist bastion will see additional large
gatherings on January 24, when "Anti-Imperialism Day" is
observed with protests against U.S. foreign policy. The
rhetoric likely will escalate as the time of the President's
visit comes closer.

A GLITCH, BUT FAR FROM A SHOWSTOPPER
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6. (SBU) Comment: Opposition to the President's visit and
U.S. foreign policy are easy issues for the Left to use to
its advantage in State elections where it has a strong
political base. However, since the Left is already
predicted to win in Kerala and West Bengal, opposition to
the President's visit appears more likely to be a form of
extortion at the national level. In its threat to disrupt
the visit, the Left parties are effectively asking how much
ties with America, and the Presidential visit, specifically
mean to the UPA. As such, this is typical communist
blackmail tactics. Through a combination of overwhelming
police presence, quiet back-channel pressure and discreet
political concessions during the state elections, the UPA
will work through its uneasy coalition with the communists
to ensure minimal or no disruptions for the President's
visit. Close contacts have assured us that the Prime
Minister is personally committed to the success of the
President's visit, and we are convinced he will take the
necessary steps to blunt the Left's efforts. The Left's
recent antics will not stop the growing partnership between
India and the U.S. but they will try to make the UPA's
support for that process more difficult. In the end, the
dogs will bark, but the caravan will move on. End Comment.


7. (SBU) Full text of Ambassador's letter to West Bengal
Chief Minister Bhattacharjee:
Dear Mr. Minister,

I enjoyed our interaction during my visit to Calcutta in
August. I was impressed with your efforts to attract
investment to West Bengal. As a result of my time in
Calcutta, I directed the U.S. Mission in India to support
your work on economic development. We have facilitated the
visit of Finance Minister Dr. Dasgupta to the United States,
encouraged infrastructure investment and are intending to

NEW DELHI 00000291 003 OF 003


assign a Foreign Commercial Service Officer to Calcutta.
These efforts are in addition to a number of continuing
programs that the United States Government contributes to in
your State, such as approximately 20 million dollars in
joint scientific research, and additional millions of
dollars in environmental and social development projects.

Given how much the United States Government supports West
Bengal and the positive interactions we have had, I was very
surprised and disturbed to see you quoted in the media
recently referring to President Bush "as a leader of a gang
of killers." As the President's personal representative to
India, I consider such remarks, if true, highly offensive.

Such remarks also undercut your efforts to attract American
investment to West Bengal. Businesses conduct a risk
assessment when identifying potential investment
opportunities. An important factor in this assessment is
the political context. Inflammatory language from senior
government officials will cause investors to look for more
favorable locations to establish businesses.

Your remarks have already had serious repercussions on
United States Government perceptions of West Bengal. Senior
officials have cancelled visits as a result and while India
is presently receiving a significant number of Congressional
visitors, none of those high-level figures are traveling to
Calcutta.

I ask you to reconsider your aggressively anti-American
statements or correct the record if you were misquoted. The
U.S. Mission in India desires close relations with the
Government of West Bengal and wants to continue to assist
efforts to promote economic and social development in your
State. However, incendiary remarks against our President
and senior U.S. Government officials will make cooperation
more difficult.
Sincerely,
David C. Mulford

MULFORD