LEFT'S BARK WORSE THAN ITS BITE AS ITS NOSTRILS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 000291 SIPDIS WHITE HOUSE FOR HAGIN, NSC FOR HAINES SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON OVIP ASEC IN SUBJECT: LEFT'S BARK WORSE THAN ITS BITE AS ITS NOSTRILS FLARE OVER POTUS VISIT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Leftist groups in India plan to protest President Bush's impending visit in order to rally the faithful prior to State elections in Communist strongholds and in the hope of intimidating the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) into limiting economic reforms and de-emphasizing relations with the United States. Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) leaders have also made highly inflammatory remarks against President Bush, referring to him at times as a leader of "killers" and "war criminals." The CPM and its leftist allies are threatening to organize large protests against the President's visit, to include attempts to block his movements and boycott any possible joint session of Parliament. However, the Communists have limited support comprising at most approximately eight percent of the national popular vote; are concentrated in a few States, notably West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura (two of which have elections in early 2006); and have only a smattering of supporters in other areas. Moreover, when the Left protested US-India joint air force exercises in late 2005, most protestors were of the "rent a mob" variety and seemed distinctly ideologically uncommitted. The Left's bark is far worse than its bite. In addition, the PM is personally committed to the success of the President's visit. Just as they did for the air exercise, the GOI, which is better able than almost any government to handle vast crowds, will ensure that sufficient security is provided to the President and that protestors will be kept well away from his events, so they will not be disrupted. While unlikely to disrupt the Presidential visit, Leftist leaders will be very vocal in making derogatory remarks against the President and, in the States where they have sufficient numbers (none of which is on the Presidential itinerary),will conduct large rallies of potentially thousands of protesters against the visit. The Left's extortionist tactics in protesting the Presidential visit typify their lack of constructive ideas, are unlikely to impact he GOI's efforts at closer relations with the US, and ultimately, may only serve to help them win state contests in their remaining strongholds. The Ambassador has written the Chief Minister of West Bengal to protest his remarks about the President and point out that such vitriol will undercut the CM's efforts to attract US business to West Bengal (full text para 7). End Summary. YANKEE GO HOME! -------------- ¶2. (SBU) At a January 2 gathering in Delhi of the CPM, Communist Party of India (CPI) and other affiliated leaders, the Leftist parties outlined their campaign strategy for May State elections in West Bengal and Kerala. One strategy identified was to protest the upcoming visit of President Bush to India. CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat said that India's Left parties would organize demonstrations across the country for the visit to protest the United State's "hegemonistic" policies. He added that protest would be held "everywhere he (the President) goes." CPM West Bengal Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee went further by personalizing the rhetoric in describing President Bush as a "leader of the world's largest killing gang" (Reftel). The Left also say they will boycott any possible Presidential speech to the Parliament. WHAT'S IN IT FOR THE LEFT? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The Left is motivated to attack the President and his visit to rally the cadre for the May 2006 State elections in Kerala and West Bengal but more importantly, to create leverage in seeking to limit the UPA's agenda for economic reform and closer relations with the US. While not part of the ruling UPA coalition, the support of the 70 Leftist MPs is required for the UPA to remain in power. The Left have successfully used the leverage inherent in the present political arrangement to delay or temper the UPA's plans to open economic sectors for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI),reduce subsidies and to privatize public corporations, although the UPA continues its reform-minded policies. The threat of disruptions to the important Presidential visit serves as a form of extortion for the Left in extracting further concessions from the UPA, and comes as yet another classic piece of Indian political theater. THE MOUSE THAT ROARED NEW DELHI 00000291 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Leftist numbers in India, in relative terms, are not large for a country of over a billion people. They constitute approximately 8 percent of the population. The largest Leftist party, CPM, has approximately 900,000 card- carrying members. The Communist labor wing, Center for Indian Trade Unions (CITU) has a membership of around 15 million people. In addition, most Left supporters are concentrated in States far from any proposed Presidential itinerary, to include the States of West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Leftist numbers are limited in the New Delhi capital district, although approximately 20,000 CITU members work in the neighboring industrial Gurgaon district. The GOI, which has long experience in handling the largest crowds in the world, can be expected to take decisive action to prevent any demonstrators disrupting the President's events during his visit. The GOI showed strong resolve against the CPM and Leftists in November when the Left promised to block the joint air force training exercise in Kalaikunda Airfield, West Bengal. CPM officials said that over 100,000 cadres would block access to Kalaikunda. At that time, the GOI interceded to ensure full security, the protests were limited, and the training was conducted successfully. We later read anecdotal reports in the newspapers that at most 10,000 protested at the airfield, and most of those were farmers paid to wave the red banner and chant slogans whose meanings they did not understand. Such "rent a mob" tactics are common in India. RHETORICAL LIONS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) While lacking the wherewithal to disrupt the Presidential visit, the Left can generate highly inflammatory rhetoric and public scenes where they have a strong majority, such as in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Although we have no means of verifying the numbers quoted, newspapers reported "over one million" Leftist supporters joined a January 8 rally in Calcutta to kick-off the CPM campaign for the West Bengal State elections. This traditional Leftist bastion will see additional large gatherings on January 24, when "Anti-Imperialism Day" is observed with protests against U.S. foreign policy. The rhetoric likely will escalate as the time of the President's visit comes closer. A GLITCH, BUT FAR FROM A SHOWSTOPPER -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Opposition to the President's visit and U.S. foreign policy are easy issues for the Left to use to its advantage in State elections where it has a strong political base. However, since the Left is already predicted to win in Kerala and West Bengal, opposition to the President's visit appears more likely to be a form of extortion at the national level. In its threat to disrupt the visit, the Left parties are effectively asking how much ties with America, and the Presidential visit, specifically mean to the UPA. As such, this is typical communist blackmail tactics. Through a combination of overwhelming police presence, quiet back-channel pressure and discreet political concessions during the state elections, the UPA will work through its uneasy coalition with the communists to ensure minimal or no disruptions for the President's visit. Close contacts have assured us that the Prime Minister is personally committed to the success of the President's visit, and we are convinced he will take the necessary steps to blunt the Left's efforts. The Left's recent antics will not stop the growing partnership between India and the U.S. but they will try to make the UPA's support for that process more difficult. In the end, the dogs will bark, but the caravan will move on. End Comment. ¶7. (SBU) Full text of Ambassador's letter to West Bengal Chief Minister Bhattacharjee: Dear Mr. Minister, I enjoyed our interaction during my visit to Calcutta in August. I was impressed with your efforts to attract investment to West Bengal. As a result of my time in Calcutta, I directed the U.S. Mission in India to support your work on economic development. We have facilitated the visit of Finance Minister Dr. Dasgupta to the United States, encouraged infrastructure investment and are intending to NEW DELHI 00000291 003 OF 003 assign a Foreign Commercial Service Officer to Calcutta. These efforts are in addition to a number of continuing programs that the United States Government contributes to in your State, such as approximately 20 million dollars in joint scientific research, and additional millions of dollars in environmental and social development projects. Given how much the United States Government supports West Bengal and the positive interactions we have had, I was very surprised and disturbed to see you quoted in the media recently referring to President Bush "as a leader of a gang of killers." As the President's personal representative to India, I consider such remarks, if true, highly offensive. Such remarks also undercut your efforts to attract American investment to West Bengal. Businesses conduct a risk assessment when identifying potential investment opportunities. An important factor in this assessment is the political context. Inflammatory language from senior government officials will cause investors to look for more favorable locations to establish businesses. Your remarks have already had serious repercussions on United States Government perceptions of West Bengal. Senior officials have cancelled visits as a result and while India is presently receiving a significant number of Congressional visitors, none of those high-level figures are traveling to Calcutta. I ask you to reconsider your aggressively anti-American statements or correct the record if you were misquoted. The U.S. Mission in India desires close relations with the Government of West Bengal and wants to continue to assist efforts to promote economic and social development in your State. However, incendiary remarks against our President and senior U.S. Government officials will make cooperation more difficult. Sincerely, David C. Mulford MULFORD