JAMMU & KASHMIR ASSEMBLY BY-ELECTIONS EXCEED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002789

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM IN
SUBJECT: JAMMU & KASHMIR ASSEMBLY BY-ELECTIONS EXCEED
EXPECTATIONS

REF: A. 2004 NEW DELHI 2410


B. NEW DELHI 2365

C. 2004 NEW DELHI 2351

D. 2002 NEW DELHI 5330

E. 2002 NEW DELHI 5509

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Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Residents of four of Jammu & Kashmir's
Assembly constituencies came out in strength to vote in
by-elections on April 24, undaunted by threats and violence
in the third major exercise of electoral democracy in the
state since 2002. Another data point in the trend of
Kashmiris' growing efforts to secure normalcy and prosperity,
the highest voter turnout in 16 years--estimated at around 60
percent--indicates that residents were not intimidated by
pre-poll threats from terrorists, nor were they deterred by
separatists' call for an election boycott. Notably, locals
attributed the limited violence that did take place to
"election criminality," rather than terrorism. Local press
reports and Embassy observers commented that voters were
motivated by local issues, such as education and development,
rather than broader questions such as the India-Pakistan
relationship. End Summary.

High Voter Turnout Reflects Electoral Excitement
-------------- ---


2. (SBU) Indian press outlets are reporting that voters
largely ignored a call by separatists to boycott the polls
for the four Jammu & Kashmir Assembly seats being contested
on April 24. Total turnout reached about 60 percent -- well
above the 35 percent turnout for Lok Sabha elections in 2004
and the 42 percent turnout for Legislative Assembly elections
in 2002 (REF A) -- confirming the sense of excitement that
Poloff and Pol FSN observed during their visits to 11 polling
stations. On April 25, Jammu & Kashmir's Chief Electoral
Officer announced the following turnout figures for each of
the constituencies: Bhaderwah - 72 percent; Rafiabad - 66.2
percent; Pattan - 56.2 percent; Sangrama - 40.3 percent.
Despite a slow start at some polling places, POLOFF and Pol
FSN witnessed queues several hundred people deep at several
locations by the afternoon. Extrapolating out their
observations, the government's overall turnout figure is
consistent with what POLOFF and Pol FSN saw. As they
traveled, POLOFF and Pol FSN were greeted by voters proudly
holding up their inked fingers to show that they had
exercised their franchise. At one polling station in
Sangrama, POLOFF noted that a group of about 50 stood without
blocking the voting booths, and said within range of the
security forces that they were boycotting the election. The
only note-worthy impact of the separatists' boycott call
appeared to be the large-scale shuttering of shops near
Sopore and the more limited number of closed stores in
Pattan; it was business as usual in most other places, again
in contrast to the 2004 elections.

Importance of Local Issues Outweighs Boycott Calls
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Voters told POLOFF and Pol FSN that they were voting
based on local issues, including education and development,
rather than on the basis of Indo-Pakistani relations, on
which separatist leaders have focused (REF B). Press reports

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corroborated comments made to POLOFF and Pol FSN, that voters
were seemingly more interested in the candidate's local
platform than that of the party. The number of voters who
decided to flout the boycott call stands in stark contrast to
the Kashmiri response to a similar call during the 2004 Lok
Sabha elections, in which Embassy observers noted that many
voters were government employees (REF C).

Political Intimidation Tactics, Not Terrorism
--------------


4. (SBU) Although initial press reports attributed grenade
attacks at two polling places to militants, POLOFF and Pol
FSN were told that activists affiliated with the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) were behind the violence. According
to Indian press reports on April 25, voters captured and held
alleged PDP workers accused of the attack following a
mid-morning grenade explosion that injured five at a polling
station in Palhalan village in Pattan. Similarly, at a
polling station in Wagoora in Sangrama, voters staged an
apparently impromptu demonstration against the PDP in
response to a grenade attack there that injured 18. POLOFF
and Pol FSN were tojd that after the Palhalan attack, a local
maulvi used a loudspeaker to broadcast a call for voters to
cast ballots in favor of the National Conference. Indian
newspapers also reported on April 25 that National Conference
candidate and former minister Mustafa Kamaal publicly blamed
a PDP candidate for orchestrating the attacks. POLOFF and
Pol FSN saw posters allegedly put up by the Hizbul Mujahideen
that warned people not to vote; however, separatist leader
Yasin Malik and Yusuf Jamil of the Asian Age told us that HM
has denied posting the fliers, and the political parties are
assigning guilt to each other, calling the posters part of a
political strategy (Note: We will report on the mechanics and
results of the elections, as well as alleged political
maneuverings, septel. End Note.).

Also Noteworthy: Low Level of Violence
--------------


5. (C) Despite expectations to the contrary, the Assembly
elections were largely peaceful, particularly in contrast to
the 2002 Assembly elections and the 2004 Lok Sabha elections
(REF C, D and E). POLOFF and Pol FSN observed that both
voters and the small number of boycotters were free to make
their respective statements. Press noted that separatists
Shabir Shah and APHC hardliner Geelani had been placed under
house arrest, possibly dampening violence around the
elections; however, attacks took place in 2002 and 2004, even
though the government had preemptively detained separatists
then, as well.

Comment: Voters Speak: Ballots Beat Violence
--------------


6. (C) The key indicator of a credible election, voter
turnout, underscored a solid electoral exercise for J&K. The
percentage of ballots cast, combined with the apparent
absence of terrorist violence, makes this election more like
those in the rest of India. The GOI will likely cite this
development as further evidence of normalization in this
tense territory when Kashmiri leaders meet the Prime Minister
for the next "round table" exercise. In the meantime, the
observations of our officers in the Valley provide further

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evidence for the judgment that Kashmiris are turning their
backs once and for all on militancy with a view to pursuing
their interests through the mechanisms of Indian democracy.


7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
BLAKE