JAMMU & KASHMIR ASSEMBLY BY-ELECTIONS EXCEED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002788 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM IN SUBJECT: JAMMU & KASHMIR ASSEMBLY BY-ELECTIONS EXCEED EXPECTATIONS REF: A. 2004 NEW DELHI 2410 ¶B. NEW DELHI 2365 ¶C. 2004 NEW DELHI 2351 ¶D. 2002 NEW DELHI 5330 ¶E. 2002 NEW DELHI 5509 NEW DELHI 00002788 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: CDA Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Residents of four of Jammu & Kashmir's Assembly constituencies came out in strength to vote in by-elections on April 24, undaunted by threats and violence in the third major exercise of electoral democracy in the state since 2002. Another data point in the trend of Kashmiris' growing efforts to secure normalcy and prosperity, the highest voter turnout in 16 years--estimated at around 60 percent--indicates that residents were not intimidated by pre-poll threats from terrorists, nor were they deterred by separatists' call for an election boycott. Notably, locals attributed the limited violence that did take place to "election criminality," rather than terrorism. Local press reports and Embassy observers commented that voters were motivated by local issues, such as education and development, rather than broader questions such as the India-Pakistan relationship. End Summary. High Voter Turnout Reflects Electoral Excitement -------------- --- ¶2. (SBU) Indian press outlets are reporting that voters largely ignored a call by separatists to boycott the polls for the four Jammu & Kashmir Assembly seats being contested on April 24. Total turnout reached about 60 percent -- well above the 35 percent turnout for Lok Sabha elections in 2004 and the 42 percent turnout for Legislative Assembly elections in 2002 (REF A) -- confirming the sense of excitement that Poloff and Pol FSN observed during their visits to 11 polling stations. On April 25, Jammu & Kashmir's Chief Electoral Officer announced the following turnout figures for each of the constituencies: Bhaderwah - 72 percent; Rafiabad - 66.2 percent; Pattan - 56.2 percent; Sangrama - 40.3 percent. Despite a slow start at some polling places, Poloff and Pol FSN witnessed queues several hundred people deep at sveral locations by the afternoon. Extrapolating out their observations, the government's overall turnout figure is consistent with what Poloff and Pol FSN saw. As they traveled, Poloff and Pol FSN were greeted by voters proudly holding up their inked fingers to show that they had exercised their franchise. At one polling station in Sangrama, Poloff noted that a group of about 50 stood without blocking the voting booths, and said within range of the security forces that they were boycotting the election. The only note-worthy impact of the separatists' boycott call appeared to be the large-scale shuttering of shops near Sopore and the more limited number of closed stores in Pattan; it was business as usual in most other places, again in contrast to the 2004 elections. Importance of Local Issues Outweighs Boycott Calls -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Voters told Poloff and Pol FSN that they were voting based on local issues, including education and development, rather than on the basis of Indo-Pakistani relations, on which separatist leaders have focused (REF B). Press reports NEW DELHI 00002788 002.4 OF 003 NEW DELHI 00002788 003.4 OF 003