INDO-PAK ON THE RIGHT TRACK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002706

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS KDEM PHUM PTER ECON EWWT IN PK
SUBJECT: INDO-PAK ON THE RIGHT TRACK


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Classified By: CDA Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Seen from Delhi, Indo-Pak engagement seems
to keep going strong, with the PM planning what he hopes will
be a May or July trip to Pakistan that will be heavy on
substantive achievement. In addition, India has made an
important water concession to Pakistan and highly placed
sources here hint more may come. The PM may also speak again
soon with the Hurriyat, furthering the trend to rapprochement
in Kashmir. As long as the PM remains secure in his domestic
political position, he is sure to continue to take risks to
make lasting peace with Pakistan. The Indian politicians and
security hawks to whom we spoke were also of one mind that
Saudi, US, or any third party "meddling" in Indo-Pak
Composite Dialogue would only stick a spoke in the works of a
system that, for now, they say, ain't broke and don't need
fixin'. END SUMMARY.

PM PACKING HIS BAGS
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2. (C) The Pakistani DCM told D/PolCouns April 15 that PM
Singh is focused on a possible first-ever June trip back to
Pakistan, the land of his birth, that the Indian side has
made clear should make "large strides" and focus on
substantive achievement over photo ops. PMO contact
Venkatesh Verma, while tight-lipped, confirmed a trip was in
the works. The media are reporting that it may take place in
May or July, but Verma said we should not believe what we
read regarding timing. If a trip does take place in June, it
would coincide with a major festival at a Sikh shrine in
Pakistani Punjab, for which the press here report that the
Pakistani government has issued 10,000 Indian Sikhs visas.

A CONCESSION FLOWS
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3. (C) The Indians April 19 unexpectedly gave Pakistan a
gesture of goodwill. Science and Technology Minister Kapil
Sibal announced that India would change the design of the
Kishenganga hydroelectric project in J&K to end a
long-standing dispute with Pakistan. The Cabinet had agreed
to scrap plans to build a large water reservoir to run a
power station, a storage plan Pakistan had said violated the
Indus water sharing treaty, and will instead build a "run of
the river" system that would generate the same amount of
electricity without storing water. This gesture comes as
Indian officials are visiting Pakistan to address differences
about a separate water-works, the Wular barrage. The Indian
concession did not spark cries of a sell-out from security
hawks, so more such concessions may follow. Journalist
Sushant Sareen told us the concession proves India is "not as
obdurate or obstinate" as it might appear, and that India
remained committed to the "letter and spirit" of the Indus
Water Sharing Treaty.

MORE IN THE WORKS?
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4. (C) The GOI is sending signals that more concessions may
come. NSA Narayanan said April 20 that both sides are
"closer" to a "final point" on Siachen glacier. Narayanan
also also mentioned Sir Creek as being "on the anvil" in
ongoing talks. When we raised the possibility of a Siachen
withdrawal April 21 with notorious BJP hawk Professor MD

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Nalapat he got very agitated, saying he had heard the PM was
likely to make such a concession, and if he did, the right
wing in India would call for his head on a pike. Union
Cabinet Water Minister Saifuddin Soz told D/PolCouns April 20
that more concessions were in the works, but he was sworn to
secrecy. Soz also muttered that there were large forces
arrayed against the PM within the bureaucracy who made his
every step difficult. Professor Amitabh Mattoo, a member of
the Prime Minister's National Security Advisory Board, told
us April 20 that "very interesting and positive developments"
were coming soon, but would not be drawn further on details.
Professor Riaz Punjabi, a Kashmir expert close to all sides
of the equation, agreed, saying there are many reasons for
optimism right now.

CALMING KASHMIR
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5. (C) Soz -- a Kashmiri who helped organize the Mirwaiz's
first meeting with the PM in November 2005 -- said the
security hawks in the Home Ministry had played mischief by
expanding the PM's dialogue to encompass "every Tom, Dick,
and Harry" in J&K state, thereby alienating the Hurriyat.
Soz and other helpful actors were now trying to get the
Hurriyat again to meet the PM outside the roundtable process
so the dialogue with separatists could get back on track.
Home Secretary VS Duggal, speaking in Srinagar April 19, said
that the government intended to throw the
Srinagar-Muzzafarabad road open to trade as soon as possible
once a "dependable and good scanning system" is in place to
prevent terrorists from using goods flows to smuggle weapons
and explosives. Home Ministry Kashmir watcher NN Vohra told
us the Finance Ministry has given J&K the unprecedented
allowance of an extra three months to spend FY2005 funds that
would have expired on March 31. Vohra added that while the
terrorists will definitely try to make a spectacular
statement during the April 24 by-election in Kashmir, the
Central government was trying very hard to extend the state
every facility and kindness to keep the people opposed to the
violence.

NONE OF YOUR DARN BUSINESS
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6. (C) Soz, Vohra, and others agreed that India and Pakistan
were best able to handle the next steps on their own. A day
after the Saudis announced they were going to help mediate in
Kashmir, MEA spokesman Navtej Sarna on April 20 definitively
squashed such prospects, saying, "India and Pakistan are
discussing all bilateral issues under the Composite Dialogue
process and there is no scope for mediation by any third
party."

IF IT AIN'T BROKE, DON'T FIX IT
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7. (C) COMMENT: The mood in Delhi toward Pakistan right now
is fairly good. Indo-Pak cricket tests are no longer front
page news because they have become so common. The wave of
terrorism on April 14 did not result in hysterical
condemnations of Pakistan. The broad majority of Indians
seek total peace with Pakistan. Every person we have spoken
to -- left, right, or center -- agrees the PM is unshakeable
in his dedication to forging lasting and meaningful peace
with Pakistan. The Composite Dialogue is like a spinning

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top, said one contact -- "if you touch it, it will fall
down." Charge will seek a meeting next week with NSA
Narayanan to probe further on these matters. END COMMENT.
BLAKE