INDIAN ENVOY TO NEPAL KING: ASSUME CEREMONIAL ROLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002699 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2016 TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM PGOV PBTS OREP NP IN SUBJECT: INDIAN ENVOY TO NEPAL KING: ASSUME CEREMONIAL ROLE REF: NEW DELHI 2602 Classified By: Charge Bob Blake for Reasons 1.4(B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: As the Indian establishment debates the effectiveness of envoy Karan Singh's visit to Kathmandu, New Delhi is still reaching out to Nepalese actors to try to pull the parties and Palace together. Speaking with the Charge on April 21, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran said the King had responded positively to Singh's message, but acknowledged the king had responded positively before and then done nothing. Saran warned that Gyanendra was rapidly approaching the "point of no return" at which the monarchy itself was in danger. End Summary. NOT AS SUCCESSFUL AS HOPED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Indian envoy Karan Singh met with the Prime Minister on April 21 to discuss his April 19-20 visit to Nepal (reftel),and told reporters afterward that he was optimistic that the King would soon take a "major step" toward restoration of democracy. However, Indian press reports, calling the visit a "failure," suggested that Singh and Saran returned early from Kathmandu after Gyanendra refused to agree to the demand to turn power over to the political parties, and instead pressed for his preferred option of appointing a prime minister of his choosing. Without any immediate results to report, Saran told reporters on his return that the visit had been a "fact finding" trip and Singh had only shared his "objective assessment" with Gyanendra. STILL PUSHING RECONCILIATION BETWEEN KING AND PARTIES -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) In an April 20 conversation with PolCouns, Minister of State for External Affairs Anand Sharma reported that while the GOI was encouraged by the King's agreement to turn over power to a Prime Minister, New Delhi was not optimistic Gyanendra would call for immediate elections. Sharma noted that the GOI continues to use CPI(M) politician Sitaram Yechury as a channel to Nepal's Seven Party Alliance (SPA) because of his strong ties to the CPN(UML),but did not suggest he would have any broader role to engage the Maoists. Sharma met with Yechury and Nationalist Congress Party General Secretary DP Yadav (also a supporter of the SPA) on April 20 to discuss GOI policy. Prior to his meeting, Yechury told reporters that there was no longer "any place for monarchy" in Nepal. Sharma later met with CPN(UML) leader and SPA negotiator Jhala Nath Khanal in New Delhi on April 20, in order for Khanal to convey the SPA's reaction to Karan Singh's visit. Indian media has also reported that former NDA Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh plans to visit Nepal with the GOI's blessing on April 24, adding yet another envoy (and perspective) into India's interactions with Nepalese leaders. INDIA'S MESSAGE TO THE KING -------------- ¶4. (C) In an April 21 meeting, Foreign Secretary Saran told Charge and visiting Staffdel Sheehy that Karan Singh had told Gyanendra that he was "fast approaching the point of no return," and facing a growing upsurge of popular anger. Singh asked the King to summon the SPA leaders, tell them that he will turn over executive power to a leader of their choosing, call for elections to a new Parliament, and help work on a peace settlement. He should then step back into a ceremonial role. TIME MAY BE RUNNING OUT NEW DELHI 00002699 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶5. (C) The King responded "positively" to Singh's message, Saran reported. However, Saran admitted, Gyanendra has given positive responses before but then done nothing. If the King does not take immediate action, there was a good chance of the monarchy's role "being usurped," and the King could be in personal danger, Saran commented. Even "his friends" may not be able to help him out. Saran told us that the King said he may have a public message at 5 pm on April 21, when he would "announce that he has an announcement." INDIA ASKS SPA TO BE RESTRAINED -------------- ¶6. (C) Saran and Singh also met with leaders of the SPA while in Kathmandu, and asked them not to "overload the agenda with demands" if the King does reach out to them. The Indian envoys discussed with the SPA the urgency of an economic development agenda for Nepal after the restoration of democratic government, and the need for "major financial backing" for the country. India will "do what we can financially" to promote development, Saran said. COMMENT: A LAST MINUTE FRENZY -------------- ¶7. (C) The world has waited fourteen months for India to lead on Nepal. Now, as the walls figuratively are crashing in around the King, the Indian establishment is in a frenzy of action that comes almost too late, but could yet pay democratic dividends if Gyanendra acts soon. ¶8. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) BLAKE