GOI PRIVATELY MAINTAINING PRESSURE TO DEMOCRATIZE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002173 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2016 TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM BM IN SUBJECT: GOI PRIVATELY MAINTAINING PRESSURE TO DEMOCRATIZE BURMA REF: A. NEW DELHI 1806 ¶B. NEW DELHI 1614 ¶C. NEW DELHI 0997 NEW DELHI 00002173 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: MEA Burma watcher Mohan Kumar told PolCouns March 30 that the GOI is continuing privately to push the military regime in Burma to pursue democratic reforms. Kumar elaborated on President Kalam's visit to Burma earlier this month, and indicated that discussions on democracy figured into Kalam's meetings much more than the media indicated. Kumar asserted that the military is "in absolute control," is paranoid, and feels "pushed up against a wall." He concluded by agreeing with Polcouns that continued coordination between the U.S. and the GOI could advance our mutual interest in democratic reforms in Burma. End Summary. Kalam Raises Democratic Reforms -------------- ¶2. (C) In a March 30 conversation with PolCouns and Poloff, Mohan Kumar, MEA Joint Secretary for Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Myanmar said that President Kalam discussed the need for democratic reforms with Burma's General Than Shwe behind closed doors twice during his visit (Ref A). The first time, Kumar said, the General brought up the issue on his own, and told Kalam that he is committed to the Seven Point Roadmap and the National Convention process. Without mentioning Aung Sang Suu Kyi (ASSK),Kalam told Shwe that the process needed to be more inclusive and broad-based, and according to Kumar, Shwe understood the implicit reference to ASSK and her National League for Democracy. The President told Shwe that if he wants Indian support in the international arena to continue, then he would "have to make our job easier, not harder" by making some progress on democratic reforms. Kalam raised the issue again in Kumar's presence as the GOI delegation was leaving, telling Shwe that ASSK is very well respected and admired in India. He reminded Shwe that just a few years ago, the General refered to ASSK as his daughter and implored him to release her. According to Kumar, Shwe was taken aback and told Kalam he would get back to him. Emphasizing that Kalam is an independent operator who speaks his mind, Kumar implied that these were unscripted interventions that reflected the sentiments of average Indians. GOI Happy to Work with US -------------- ¶3. (C) Kumar acknowledged the importance of continuing to push the Burmese regime toward democracy and, concurring with PolCouns, said that coordinating policies and playing "good cop, bad cop" might work, as we "can't let these guys off the hook." However, Kumar, while insisting that he did not want to critique U.S. policy, said he was not sure "blunt instruments" like sanctions were very effective. PolCouns cited recent actions by Japan and ASEAN to underline that the U.S. was hardly acting alone in our toughened approach. Kumar told PolCouns his sense was that "these guys become more hardline" when you push them. Kumar reported that Shwe told Kalam that "Western interference is not going to hasten the process." Kumar responded positively to PolCouns's comment that Burma is a high priority for Washington, noting NEW DELHI 00002173 002.2 OF 002 that "you can rely on India to convey your message." He added that India is a more reliable partner than China in Burma due to Kalam's ability to convey a difficult message to General Shwe, because Kalam is not political and "is his own man" (Refs B and C). Comment: GOI Taking a "Nuanced Approach" -------------- ¶4. (C) While Mohan Kumar's comments underscore the GOI's continued balancing act in Burma, his statements on the GOI's closed-door commitment to democratic reforms are encouraging, if true. In particular, President Kalam's supposed willingness to deliver hard messages privately, and the GOI's desire to work with the U.S. on Burma can be useful tools. We will continue to engage with the Indian MEA on ways to publicly and privately encourage democratic reforms in Burma. ¶5. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: (http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/) MULFORD