PM'S OLIVE BRANCH TO PAK: BUREAUCRACY, PUNDITS SEE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002090

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV IN PK
SUBJECT: PM'S OLIVE BRANCH TO PAK: BUREAUCRACY, PUNDITS SEE
LITTLE NEW

REF: NEW DELHI 1611

Classified By: DCM Robert Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Singh's speech launching the
bus service to Nankana Sahib from Amritsar on March 24
continued his efforts to push rapprochement with Pakistan,
but Singh still faces resistance from skeptical Indo-Pak
watchers in India and his own bureaucracy. Singh's speech
was notable in that it gave credit to President Musharraf for
his efforts in the peace process and in that it took a long
view of the bilateral relationship, floating an eventual
Treaty of Peace, Security and Friendship. To this end, the
Prime Minister was positive about areas in which the two
sides have struggled recently to come to agreement, including
the Siachen Glacier, Sir Creek, and the Baglihar Dam, the
latter two the subject of composite dialogue meetings on May
23-24 and May 25-26, respectively (Reftel). Singh continued
to press for increased economic ties, mentioning specific
efforts to increase commercial connectivity between the two
Punjabs. End Summary.


What the PM Actually Said (and Did Not Say)
--------------


2. (U) Prime Minister Singh struck a decidedly positive
tone in his March 24 speech at the launch of the
Amritsar-Nankana Sahib bus service on March 24, talking about
the need for increased people-to-people links in the months
and years to come. He praised President Musharraf's "bold
steps" against extremism, and said he saw "enormous
opportunities" for economic growth and poverty alleviation in
the normalization of bilateral ties. Singh said that forward
movement is possible on issues like Sir Creek, the Siachen
Glacier, and the Baglihar Dam. He proposed increased
people-to-people contacts through "cooperative, consultative
mechanisms" that would give Kashmiris more say in addressing
their social and economic development needs. His proposal of
an eventual Treaty of Peace, Security, and Friendship to cap
the relationship received much notice in the Indian media.
However, he was careful to also state that "more needs to be
done in the interest of both India and Pakistan."

Bureaucratic Barnacles Not Convinced
--------------


3. (C) Despite Prime Minister Singh's forward-leaning
comments on Pakistan and President Musharraf, Dilip Sinha,
Joint Secretary for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran at the
Ministry of External Affairs, downplayed the positive aspects
of the speech in a reflection of the deep skepticism Singh
still faces from within the Indian bureaucracy. Sinha noted
that the Prime Minister "speaks with emotion and attachment"
regarding Pakistan, but the Treaty he mentioned is "very much
in the future." He repeatedly called the Prime Minister's
commendation of Musharraf's counter-terrorism record "very
generous," and said the MEA's focus is still on how much more
needs to be done against terrorism. Sinha added that the
terrorism issue stands in the way of much of what Singh
mentioned, including increased economic and people-to-people
linkages. Similarly, Sinha deflated the Prime Minister's
statement on "cooperative consultative mechanisms," which the
Joint Secretary said could only be created if and when
Pakistan extends the same level of autonomy to the portions
of Kashmir under its control. Sinha ended on a positive

NEW DELHI 00002090 002 OF 002


note, however, stating that the PM has to take the lead in
the peace process, and that the "constituency of peace" has a
momentum of its own.

... Nor are the Pundits
--------------


4. (C) Delhi-based Indo-Pak watchers are similarly cautious
about the PM's speech. Several, including Institute for
Peace and Conflict Studies Assistant Director Suba Chandran
and Associate Editor of the South Asian Media Net Sushant
Sareen told POLOFF the speech contained "nothing new" --
Chandran underlined that offers for peace treaties go back 40
years, with each side dismissing whatever the other offers.
Terrorism expert Ajai Sahni allowed that there was a moderate
shift in the PM's tone without affecting the messages many in
India received: borders cannot be changed, Kashmir is not the
central issue, and, in the meantime, India and Pakistan
should continue the path or normalizing relations.
Cooperative political structures to tie the two parts of
Kashmir together have been a staple of Track-II discussions
for some time, according to Sareen. These ideas inch further
into Track-I territory with the PM's remarks, but all
analysts agreed that until the contours of an Indo-Pak treaty
are known, its merits could not be accurately calculated.
Most thought the proposal was little more than old chai in a
new teacup.


5. (C) MEA's Sinha told the DCM that the PM's speech had not
been previewed with the GOP. Suba Chandran and Observer
Research Foundation's Garima Singh (half-jokingly) postulated
this was the PM's way of firing back to Pakistan President
Musharraf for having launched several of his own diplomatic
initiatives through the media. Chandran also speculated that
an agreement on demilitarizing the Siachen Glacier may be
close, and the treaty proposal may have been meant to sweeten
the deal. Sushant Sareen cautioned, however, that diplomacy
in the PM's office is tightly held, and often leaves the
foreign office out of the loop.

Comment: Another Small Step
--------------


6. (C) Despite the cynical response from Indo-Pak watchers
and the decidedly "in the box" thinking reflected in the
MEA's statements, the Prime Minister's speech contained
forward-leaning elements that move the process of
rapprochement along. MEA's Sinha noted that the Prime
Minister has to take the lead on this issue and that the
"constituency of peace" has its own momentum.


7. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website:
(http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/sa/newdelhi/)
MULFORD